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menlo

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Everything posted by menlo

  1. With regard to the amount of cash, i wonder if it might be in "anticipation" of Buffett's (and/or Munger's) passing or resigning. While stepping down might allow Buffett to control the narrative, i assume that his death would result in quite the sell off. Hence, the cash hoard would be available for a buyback in size. The opportunity cost with 5% T-Bill rates is minimal as well. Just thinking out loud....
  2. Interesting thread: https://twitter.com/MarAzul_90/status/1050161513892376576 Does anyone know much about Francine McKenna?
  3. Here you go: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Creme_Puff_(cat)
  4. 15 minute video on Fairfax India. Anyone know Peters MacGregor? https://petersmacgregor.com/news-insights/stock-stories/look-fairfax-india/
  5. Take a look at QVAL here: www.alphaarchitect.com They have a very unique tool http://tools.alphaarchitect.com/ "visual active share" that provides complete transparency as to what's really in the ETF you own. You'll need to sign up to access. *Long QVAL
  6. Both candidates seem corrupt, so which candidate do board members believe is the least likely to lead us (drag us, push us, trick us...) into war? I ask because I have two sons who are of draft age (yes, I know there's no draft). This issue might be what decides my vote.
  7. Rishig - are these events open to anyone or just Google employees?
  8. Morningstar updates their value of Berkshire: http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=715603&SR=Yahoo%E2%88%82=1 (Apologies if this was linked in another thread)
  9. I think it's OK to attach this article from the Financial Analysts Journal. Using an annuity approach is a good way to reverse engineer the rate of return that's needed to make the annuity work (assets, spending, and life expectancy). Obviously, there are a number of caveats, but this paper suggests revisiting the calculation each year to make adjustments. Lots of paths up the mountain.... faj.v71.n1.2.pdf
  10. The good news is that you don't have to go through the admissions gauntlet at Stanford. I haven't heard of the instructor, but the 600+ bps outperformance versus the S&P 500 caught my eye. http://continuingstudies.stanford.edu/courses/detail/20144_BUS-123-W
  11. I'm familiar with the bank's website, but is there accessible information on QUCT? Thanks....
  12. Thanks to the invite link, I attended as well (as you can guess from my name, it was in the neighborhood...). At the risk of revealing the greedy/mercenary aspects of my personality, I found the presentation somewhat surprising. Stanford isn't known as an "investment" school, so my take was that the kids (yes, I'm old and cynical ;) ) were looking for something more tangible. I get the pay-it-forward theme that Mr. Spier is promoting, but it wasn't until Mr. Prabai started answering questions that the talk became relevant. For example, in answering one question about how to raise funds, he (Pabrai) went through the math of saving from one's job in order to fund an account that can ultimately be audited for performance. Once the numbers are OK from both a return and time perspective, then go after "friends, family and fools." The flip side of the talk is that since these grads (or Harvard or wherever) will be masters of the universe, it's better to get them thinking about charity/philanthropy now. I just sense that's not where this audience is at this point in their lives. Also based on the presentations, I'd rather have money with Mr. Pabrai than Mr. Spier. I found Mr. Spier's tortured soul confession somewhat distracting. One man's opinion. PS: I haven't read Spier's book, so I recognize an hour talk isn't his body of work. PPS: Mr. Pabrai's purple shoes were spectacular.
  13. I'm seeing YTMs sub-10%, which strike me as challenging but not end-of-life bad (I believe these are senior in the food chain, compared to Sears Roebuck Acceptance Corp bonds with 20%ish YTMs). I don't know much about bonds and bankruptcy, but would these be the ones to own in case BK is on the horizon and one believes this is a solvency vs liquidity problem? PS: I noticed that Zenith posted about this issue back in August.
  14. RE: LH and DGX, this company http://www.wired.com/2014/02/elizabeth-holmes-theranos/ might be a competitor (I don't know the industry).
  15. I haven't used them, but I believe https://www.pensco.com/ can help with private equity/alternatives in a retirement account.
  16. Saw the massive volume print yesterday (ironically, almost exactly a year after the prior massive volume print). Looks like the price is adjusting today....
  17. Quite a bit on WDC from these guys.... http://www.amvona.com/featured/finding-alpha/item/13599-is-western-digital-an-ideal-acquisition-target
  18. This article (and a few follow-ups at the site) are worth reviewing. http://turnkeyanalyst.com/2011/05/how-magic-is-the-magic-formula/
  19. menlo

    EV/EBITDA

    Here's a link to a study that reviews various valuation metrics. EBITDA/TEV seems to have the best long term - 40 year study - returns. http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1970693
  20. Ha! Just saw my mistake (included pfd equity) right after I posted.... Details, details....
  21. In reviewing the "Financial Track Record" at the company website, it appears that the stock traded below book value only once since 1985 (2002, using their year end data). While the recent underwriting looks horrendous, if pricing is firming and if the current stock price is below book value, perhaps most of the bad news is out there. I'll add, however, that the "Financial Track Record" is a hodgepodge of USD and CAD, and some of the terms are inconsistent (e.g., "book value" appears to be equal to "common shareholders' equity." Why not use the same term?). *long and considering adding.
  22. Between Facebook and Jeremy Lin (and not necessarily in that order...), the Greater Palo Alto Area is going insane!
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