gfp
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Everything posted by gfp
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Huge Wet Leg fan here as well but their first album will never be topped. Chaise Longue! Saw them in a tiny club after their first album. If you like their new album make sure you own the first
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When a stock gets harder to successfully buy that's usually a good sign. I had all kinds of order in today from $17.70 down to 17.25 and got a fill on only 100 shares. Chart looks very good compared to the mothership's chart.
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I think we know they did nothing with BB in Q1 2026 already.
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Greg is busy y'all https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/01/berkshire-hathaway-alphabet-investment.html
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Just like the old days! Greg Abel is on the job
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meanwhile... https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/ai-math-solves-erdos-problem-openai-c4029e84?st=ZZ2yUC&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
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That's great to hear! Glad to hear you are doing well. I have several friends that are super into Brazilian jiu jitsu (I assume that's what the acronym meant) but I have never gotten into that kind of thing myself. Still in Los Angles? (apologies for cluttering up the invest in BRK in your 20's thread.. there are worse things to do in your 20's than invest in blue chip safe compounders, the OP will be fine either way)
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ScottHall - or do you prefer to be called something else? - I'm curious if you are still in the copywriting / marketing industry or if that is ancient history by this point
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they say that first five trillion is the hard one to earn and the second 5 is easy
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take one for the team spek!
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There is no way the remaining liabilities are close to zero. Berkshire is on the hook for about $7 billion more before the $20 billion cap is hit and this contract has only had adverse development for Berkshire since they wrote it. (the entire contract is for adverse development for AIG but I'm talking about development vs. Berkshire's day one underwriting of 16 or 16.8 billion or whatever it was.) AIG's books estimate $8.9 billion remaining and Berkshire is on the hook for 80% of whatever it turns out to be in reality, subject to that total cap at $20b. At this point it is probably best to assume Berkshire pays out the entire $20 billion but the timing of when the money goes out becomes the more important factor.
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And perhaps a bit more interesting - WSJ has an article on the rumored successor to Ajit: this is a gift article link, probably only works for the first few people who click it. Maybe don't click it if you have a WSJ subscription https://www.wsj.com/business/hes-berkshire-hathaways-other-charlie-the-heir-to-its-insurance-juggernaut-760103f9?st=u64CWP&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
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Somebody tell Greg's new central command that biBerk is paying Berkshire competitor Globe Newswire to distribute their press releases... hmmmmm https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/05/28/3303215/0/en/biberk-business-insurance-offers-key-insights-on-how-insurance-costs-are-impacted-by-a-positive-safety-culture-and-some-practical-steps-to-protect-your-business-by-prioritizing-saf.html
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Oh yeah! I forgot that one. Hang it on the hall of shame next to Buffett building a $4.1 billion TSM position in 2022 and then completely bailing a few months later
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Has anyone spent any time looking at what appears to be the absolute worst possible timing of Sokol / Fairfax selling off the crown jewel assets of the old APR Energy business to Fortress Investment Group just before the value of, and demand for, 2nd hand, immediately deployable mobile aero-derivative gas turbine generation assets skyrocketed? I was looking into Anthropic's expansion from xAI's Colossus I to also include part of their Colossus II data center and drilling down on the containerized Caterpillar natural gas gensets xAI is using in Mississippi and it really sounded like APR's 20x GE TM2500 & 10x Pratt & Whitney FT8 would have shot up in value immediately after Sokol decided to divest. After years of nursing a dud with APR's emerging markets leasing business they threw in the towel at the worst possible moment. (and to add insult to injury, Fairfax made several payments to Atlas / Poseidon to indemnify them for losses on their purchase of APR energy from Fairfax in the first place...) https://www.aprenergy.com/apr-energy-expands-power-generation-capacity-to-over-1-1-gw-as-data-center-power-demand-soars/
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I would not buy Berkshire today if I was in my 20's but I did buy Berkshire when I was in my 20's and I'm not sorry I did. If I was in my 20's today I would probably prefer Fairfax Financial and Constellation Software at today's prices vs. Berkshire at today's prices. If you are uncomfortable being fully invested for some reason, Berkshire is probably a better option than holding a bunch of cash. Berkshire doesn't have to grow a ton to be a decent investment - it just needs to grow in value on a per-share basis.
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I was having a long conversation with an AI model about Fairfax's 10 year history of reserve redundancy / positive development of prior years reserves and how Fairfax has been very good at over-reserving up front, which has the effect of over-stating "float" and understating "shareholders equity" - since a fairly predictable chunk of "liabilities" is actually equity that just hasn't been released yet. This also has the effect of lowering the coveted leverage ratio (2.5-3x) we receive because equity is actually probably higher than stated. A similar lowering of the leverage ratio results from the under-marked assets we know are worth a few billion more than the accounting books say ("excess of fair value over carrying value"). Either way, Fairfax is working hard to shrink their equity through repurchases and maintain their leverage and they have a higher leverage ratio than Markel. Berkshire lost its leverage a while ago. Sad. The conversation moved into a discussion of the behavior of these prior years reserve releases (mostly in Q4s) in the 3-6 year period after a "hard market" and it became pretty clear that a whole lot of the past several years of hard market benefit has not actually been reflected yet on the books. A major counter-cyclical earnings buffer that makes those softer years a lot more enjoyable (another added bonus is growth slows, freeing up capital to be distributed down to the holdco). Because Fairfax grew so damn much during the hard market years, the annual contribution from reserve releases / positive development will likely be much higher than the $500m annual "typical" release and 2025's $751.5m. If you believe Fairfax has maintained the same over-reserved conservatism - and I don't know any reason to assume otherwise - then they already have a higher shareholders equity and lower liabilities than their accounting book indicates.
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Because of the way the calendar works, that is usually the case. Annual results have to be audited so they take longer to release. For many companies, the release of annual results bumps up against the "two weeks before quarter-end" black-out period for insiders. Then quarterly results come out a bit faster because no audit, so following Q1 results, even the slowest companies (cough.. BOC.. cough) have almost an entire month of "open period" before June 15th cuts them off again. If you wanna buy stock as an insider, mid-May to Mid June is your time to shine
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A little bit of discussion around the Berkshire-Tokio Marine deal https://www.reinsurancene.ws/tokio-marine-enters-next-phase-of-growth-with-berkshire-hathaway-partnership/
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No almost certainly not - look at the average price paid of about $318.87 - this was probably an order that Wallacbeth worked on their behalf for some length of time and delivered to them officially on 3/27. Could have been several weeks. The price paid is accurate but on enormous trades (this is almost $7.5 billion after all) the single date is misleading.
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Yeah I feel the same way - So far I've never seen a trade go through "Glen Eagle Wealth" as the broker and not be a Ted Weschler trade. But I left the possibility open because things are changing over at BRK and I have no idea what it looks like when Greg Abel picks up the phone to call in an order... Here is Columbia Insurance company's filing (another BRK subsidiary). $1.44 billion of CVX sold at $175.57 / share for a 12.3% capital gain - I think Buffett basically holds large liquid positions like Chevron as a partial cash equivalent - the dividend is taxed at a lower rate for Berkshire than a T-bill, with occasional upside optionality as an oil hedge. He flexes the position bigger and smaller but probably realizes a decent total return on the tax-equivalent-yield-on-cost plus small capital gains like this one. He probably sells his highest basis shares first as well. $1.997 billion of GOOGL (class A) at $298.03 / share - a decent price for Q1. Columbia_Insurance_Q1_2026_27812.2026.P.Q1.P.O.1.5193450.pdf
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Gen Re Q1 filing shows Sales of CVX, Diageo, Airbus Gen_Re_Q1_2026_22039.2026.P.Q1.P.O.1.5193073.pdf
