ourkid8

Trisura, earlier this year the company was impacted by a one off write down and the stock price was hit pretty hard. The company continues to hit the ball out of the park with an operating ROE of 20% and potentially a structural CR in the mid/ high 70s. The companies CEO is young and super smart and I expect it to trade back in line with its specialty insurance peers. Brookfield, still undervalued on a SOTP, strong capable management (I know many will disagree here) and if rates come down this has pretty significant upside potential. I am really excited about its long term potential. British American tobacco, the share price is silly cheap. They need to avoid capital destructive behaviours (acquisitions and VC type investments). Management should only focus on growing the dividend, debt pay down and repurchasing shares. That’s all. In fact, I would prefer not to grow the dividend and use the cash for share repurchases but that won’t happen. Citi, share price is silly cheap. Jane looks to be doing all the right moves by selling non-core assets along with shutting non profitable businesses. The buyback thesis has not started yet but it should kick in nicely in 2024. fairfax, cheap compared to its peers but not like last year. This should be the gift that keeps on giving.

Thanks, I appreciate. The only way to improve is to reflect on your past decisions and not make similar mistakes.

I enjoy looking back at my past picks to see if my analysis/ thesis played out. Most of the time it’s a very humbling experience. - FFH up 48-50% - depends if you hold it in CAD or USD. The thesis has played to perfection and it’s by far the largest position in my portfolio by multiples to the number 2 position. - Citi up 12% - Jane looks to be doing all the right moves by selling non core assets along with shutting non profitable businesses. The buyback thesis has not started yet but that should kick in nicely in 2024 as management continues to simplify the business and hopefully with the freed up capital repurchases shares! This is one of the smaller 2.5% positions in my portfolio. - BN up 24-27%, I love all the moves BF and team are making. I wish they repurchased more shares however the reinvestment opportunities are almost endless and that is the priority. The market is seeing this as a rate sensitive business and ignores the valuation of what they are buying. I had a great discussion with @petec on this topic and I feel the market was just being irrational with the valuation. This is the second largest position in my portfolio. - baba is down 13%, what can I say besides I was wrong. Lesson learned. I reduced my position and reinvested it into CP Rail which has been performing well. Baba is a 3% position in my portfolio.

BTI

Added more BN to my already large position.

Added more BN.

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/competition-bureau-approves-rbcs-proposed-132741172.html The bureau said Friday that its review found the deal won't likely significantly lessen competition, even though it means Canada's largest bank is poised to take over the seventh largest by assets. It’s pretty funny when the largest bank is buying the 7th largest competitor and that won’t significantly lessen competition This is a massive acquisition for the bank and will continue to strengthen its #1 position in the Canadian market.

Used my C dividend to buy a few more shares.

Citi and BABA

He did hold on to KO when it was significantly overvalued so don’t think the cash pile / universe of stocks are forcing him to stay in apple.

last week I was at 61km/week and I am slowly ramping that up. In Oct before tapering I should have it up to ~90km / week. It’s still a large jump, take it slow while ramping up. If you are on strava, let me know and we can connect offline.

Cycling / hiking are a lot of fun and it’s great you are still staying fit! What distances are you cycling/ hiking?

Running - I am a long distance runner and training to run the NY marathon. I currently train for ~6-8 hours / week and it is the greatest part of my day. We all have some kind of stress from work, family etc and during this time, none of that exists as it is “me” time. I really love the process of investing but it does not compare to my daily runs

Sold a bit of my S&P500 index due to the huge run and put it into RBC stock.

BN - Sold BAM and flipped it into BN

FFH did purchase 4.93% of FIH shares on Feb 16, 2022 from two exiting shareholder at USD$12. If there is a large block sale at an attractive price which FIH cannot repurchase, FFH will most likely take it.

Agreed, investor day will be interesting. This deal is mainly to try and close the competitive advantage CPKC has with their acquisition. I’ll validate timings of shipping a container from Mexico to Toronto with CN Vs CP. I bet with this partnership it is very close. EJ&E is the Chicago bypass and this service will be leveraging it. This is a significant competitive advantage no one gives HH / CN credit for. This is not new! They did have a similar EMP partnership with CP however due to the acquisition they kicked CP out and extending it to CN.

What do you think of Falcon premium intermodal service? https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/cn-gmxt-announce-transformational-mexico-200400401.html

I understand the potential flaws: 1. Trains are run longer, faster and run on the companies schedule - not the customer 2. Railyards are consolidated - intermediary yards are inefficient and slow down operations 3. Significant Layoffs to get the cost structure inline 4. Customer complaints about a strict schedule 5. Not ideal for shippers - since they cannot always keep a strict schedule 6. Employees to do more with less - Isn't that in every industry? What do you feel is the main point which makes the jury out on HH / PSR?

HH brought rationality and operational excellence to an industry which was extremely poorly run and inefficient. He was able to create a framework and applied it across numerous Class I rails bringing exceptional returns in the process in the short / medium term. He truly changed the game, God rest his soul. I agree with you that the easy money has been made implementing precision railroading. We both agree that there is a lot to like with the rails going forward such as AI / Tech e.g. automated inspection portal which identified defects in tracks. This new tech will reduce the injury/accident rate thus further bringing down cost and this is just one initiative. I also like strategic bolt on acquisitions such as what CN did with EJ&E to bypass Chicago. Sorry, I cannot speak on behalf of this particular bank but being the lowest cost producer, gives you a significant competitive advantage. I do not have the background on this particular failure so I have nothing more to add. I cannot speak on behalf of Norfolk but for CN their buybacks have been spot on With a current share price of $163.90, the average price management repurchased shares: 2017: $98.27, 2018: $104.99, 2019: $118.70, 2020: $116.97, 2021: $153.69 and 2022: $156. I bet if you look back 5-10 years with Norfolk, their buybacks have worked out perfectly fine. I am a bit lazy to check myself. Thanks for reposting your message, it was definitely not as harsh.

I forgot the name of the poster who was a V long term shareholder of a class I rail and just deleted their message. I would love to discuss/debate a few of your points however I was a bit busy to respond to your message before it was deleted. Would you please slide in my DM? I am also a long term shareholder in CN but only going back 15 years.

I am pretty impressed with Tracy so far based on the speed and urgency of changes happening at CN. However, as we all know Creel is an absolute rock star and the best CEO across the class I rails. CN shareholders loved seeing JJ getting Creel to pay up for KSU. CN shareholders enjoyed the break fee which worked out perfectly fine for me! I have been patiently waiting for CP to selloff to a fair price to start a position but it just never gets cheap enough!

Why do you feel CP is somewhat better then CNR? Pre KSU, definitely not due to CNR’s track network. Post KSU, very possible because KSU network goes into Mexico. The main edge CP has over CN is Keith Creel, he was cut from the same cloth as HH.

BAM and BX, both are asset light businesses which do not require a lot of capital.

More $BN at $29