SharperDingaan

'Every dog has its day. What are you investing in today, so as to be where you would like to be in 3-4 years?' Tombstone marker. It is periodically usefull to side-pocket 'vintages'. Simply because current/near term investments in portfolio A, and the 3-4 year stuff in portfolio B; require very different approaches and controls. Most people will also perform far better if their original capital is kept within some range - typically the cummulative initial contribution to portfolio B. Total cost of portfolio B, MINUS round trip gains invested in additional shares, about equal to the optimal capital limit. Thereafter, dividends/sale proceeds pulled out and either reinvested in FI, repatriated, or fed into the next 'vintage' Repatriation to repay debt, simply being FI investment done a dfferent way. Different approach. SD

Just to add some take-aways. Concentration. 20% on purchase (day-1) is the size of the pile of sh1te you bought. 20%, 9-months out, means your pile has grown at the same rate as the rest of the portfolio (ie: you've failed). You took on risk, the pile has to grow FASTER than the portfolio; all else equal - 9-months out, it should be MORE than 20% of the porfolio. Day-1 weights understate. Most times you are going to have to average down, materially raise the concentration, and pay for it with margin. After which you will sell enough at your now lower cost-base to repay the margin; many months from now. Typically NOT a topic in any 'diversification' discussion! Round trips. A trading position allows you to round trip, and the gains can be taken out in EITHER cash, or a HIGHER share count. The same investment divided over more shares, lowers the cost base. Withdrawing cash lowers exposure to the name, and enables deployment into the 'next' idea. Every dog has its day. What are you investing in today, so as to be where you would like to be in 3-4 years? Ideally tommorrows stars are todays dogs, and cheap! Hence your 'new' 20% positions should really be in these, they should be paid for out of recycled risk capital, and existing positions funded from house money. Obviously, some trick! Good luck. SD

The NA and Asian FANGs are just pushing the CBs to 'get off the pot'. Either issue CBDC soon, or we allow payment in BTC and enable a bypass of your currency controls. If Amazon can accept BTC, and Asian counterparts are not allowed to - Asias economies will go into recession as business moves to Amazon. The obvious target is China, and acceleration of the CBDC solution to keeping the Yuan and Renminbi seperate. Work with the rest of the world or do yout own thing; your choice, but the clock is ticking. A little anarchy is not a bad thing! SD

The more concentrated you are, the less 'buy and hold' you are - as every concentration is a core position, PLUS a trading position. Margin used to work down average costs, and paid down from trading gains. Very few people are immune to the excitement when their 'conviction' is playing out. You have the trading position for a reason. And while the ideas are rare ..... they are a lot more frequent than one might think. SD

And it all ASSUMES the securities will NOT be frozen, should there be an 'event'. Any kind of 'liquidity' restriction (frozen account) and they break-the-buck. Do exactly what the US Fed tells you to, when they tell you, or they break you? Not quite the investment that you thought you had?? SD

A stable coin blow up is pretty much the definition of a grey swan event https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/grey-swan.asp 'In other words, it is a risk with a potentially large impact but a low perceived likelihood of happening. Because there is a slight chance the event will occur it should be anticipated, particularly as it could shake up the world' The pin prick could be anything. Tether is just one of many possible events, any kind of failure that 'breaks the buck' ANYWHERE will do it as well. SD

Agreed, should ANY stablecoin tied to either BTC and/or USD experience an 'issue' - it will immediately affect ALL stable coin and crypto. Hence, it is not unreasonable to think of it a grey swan event; the question is what is the probability? and is it rising? Our own view is that in the ongoing climate, crypto exposure is not warranted - and we now hold T-Bills. We're still fans of crypto as an asset class, but just think we can better double our exposure by staying out. Different POV. SD

Solar is just getting to its next stage, that's all. The clean energy just goes into breaking down waste water and distilling it to extract the H. H that is stored as gas and pumped into EV hydride batteries. SD

If you have a ‘clean’ security, margining it for cash is a straight-forward transaction. If you are margining for stable coin to re-margin/resell for cash, you are trying to money launder. If you are putting up BTC as stable coin collateral, vs just selling for cash - it is because the BTC wallet is ‘impaired’ in some way. One must wonder why? It appears that Bifinance is failing, and that founders have turned to the illegal market. It would also seem that regulators have become concerned enough to begin ‘ring fencing’ potential contagion. Should there be a temporary ‘market discontinuity’ in the crypto market, it could really make your day … God bless the CME SD

The cost of trying to make a Roth airtight just isn't worth the benefit. The reality is that there will always be a few very big winners, but as long as they are discreet about it, it really shouldn't stop the broader public from benefiting via the program. The winners are eventualy going to end up donating much of their win, to the benefit of a great many - in the meantime, they are really just 'care taking' the money. One individual in Canada used to have a TFSA so large, that it eventually funded the business school of one of Torontos universities. SD

This is why you have to do the transfer via a sale into the market, and a buy out of the market. The transfer was 'at market', and every independent in the market at the time of the trade had the opportunity to take the bid. You simply made a competitive, and therefore independent trade, proving market fact. Whether or not there actually were independents in the market at the time of the trade is not your problem - they just have to have had the oportunity to hit the bid. Of ciurse, the IRS may have a different opinion - but facts trump it. In Canada we have the TFSA account, intended for tax free savings. Taxpayers can contribute to it every year up to the current life-time maximum of $75,500. Imagine an investment of 50K invested in 250,000 shares of an o/g stock at $0.20/share. The shares subsequently go to $10.00/share, the TFSA has $2.5M of value in it, and the entire gain is tax-free. The same trade in a taxable account at a 50% tax rate, would have generated a 612.5K tax bill (2.45Mx50%x50%). With 2.5M of capital, If all future trades are done in the TFSA, you will NEVER pay tax. https://www.wealthsimple.com/en-ca/learn/tfsa-limit?gclid=EAIaIQobChMI6Imw4Ofd8QIVlh-tBh1RhAf2EAAYBCAAEgJkRPD_BwE Many would say this is abusive, whereas the facts evidence that it is far from it. You played within the rules, took the risk, and it worked out - it could also have failed. Retroactive penalizing simply because it worked out 'too well' is the abuse, not the trade itself. SD

In Canada, you used to be able to exchange shares between a tax-deferred, and a non tax-deferred account, at 'value'. The securities could transfer at any price between the high and low of the day. If there had been no trades that day, the high and low of the most reeent trade could be used. If there had been no trades for a month, you could transfer at a nominal value of your choice, arguing the shares had no value as there was no market for them. Consequently, a very large number of shares could be contributed at a value of 1c each (PayPal). If/when the shares start trading again at a healthy price, good on you. Sadly, today you have to sell the shares into the market instead. To get the same result, the account you want to transfer into just makes a market bid, at the nominal price you want to transfer at. To some people this is abuse, to others it is simply explicit recognition that nothing prevents the buyer and seller from being the same person - exactly as occurrs every time there is an internal transfer between accounts. Theil had a smart accountant; others are just pissed, 'cause they didn't think of it as well. You cannot penalize people for just being good at what they do. SD

You got that big number because you repeatedly took on risk, and won. And the bigger the number became, the less incremental risk you had to take. You cannot penalize people for simply being good at what they do. SD

Many years ago, friends in low places reminded me that one can always hire an expert, but ability to think 'around a problem' was rare. Sadly the man passed many years ago, 'cause he was a master oil smuggler in his time. Oil is a manipulated product, little different to hard drugs. Everybody wins as long as the price remains high, families will have their dramas, but there is collective 'enforcement'. There are bills to pay, and minimum revenue requirements - interfere with that at your cost. Hence, focus on what is required, and who requires it. The 'container ship' fire and explosion in the UAE's main oil loading port, very likely wasn't an accident. Were the container ship moored at DP Terminal 3, and a real attempt made, all tanker ingress/engress within this port could have been sttopped. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/7/7/fire-erupts-on-ship-dubai-port-explosion-rocks-city SD

WTI is not going to go over USD 100/bbl for any sustained period, although a spike is always possible. Producers are holding back millions bbl/day and are largely using recovery driven demand to draw down the excessive inventory. Most Opec+ nations rely on oil funded budgets, and most need an average price in the USD 80-90/bbl range. As the shift to EV accelerates, NA shale producers have incentive to raise the gas cut, by accelerating the oil draw down. Over the near to medium term, much of the E for that incremental EV, will very likely have to come from new gas powered power stations. The sun don't always shine, and the wind don't always blow. The industry is also asset stripping. So NO new elephants, NO cowboys, and consolidation wherever practical to extract scale advantages. Baring the odd break-out, discipline is highly likely to stay in place. Not a lot to fear. SD.

As this is a 'material' transaction IFRS basicaly allows 2 choices. 1) Report the higher value ($47) on the face of the financials, along with a dislosure note relating to the following $14 regulatory aspect, or 2) no change on the face of the financials, and a disclosure note outlining the entire $63 'market' revaluation. Go with 1) and you also improve the financial ratios. In an efficient market, the choice of disclosure shouldn't matter. However, we all know markets are NOT as efficient as claimed ..... SD

Digit was 'booked' yesterday when the announcement was made. Results will show up in Q3. SD

To be in the market - does NOT always mean active management. Most people use a COMBINATION of active, ETFs, and fixed income, with the portfolio weighting to each approach changing over time - as both lifestage and market condition change. We invest in o/g because we are not constrained by investment policy statements, and have deep expertise in the industry, risk management, and investment finance. We have a material, sustained, competitive advantage relative to most industry analysts AS LONG AS WE STAY within the o/g sector. We are active investors, BECAUSE o/g is cyclical - a buy/hold strategy applied to a cyclical doesn't work; ie: expertise drives approach. Outside of o/g we're very conservative; excluding rollovers, we might trade FI instruments once every 2-3 years, as opportunity presents. We actively manage so that we can use the collaterall, otherwise we would use a bond ETF. Example: Margin a bond to repay a mortgage, to capture both the interest difference and the tax advantage. We are the exception, for most people an ETF will be the better way to go. We earn a larger return because we bring more to the table. SD

No - at best they are stable coin trying to imititate a digital US dollar. The 'real' digital US dollar is a CBDC backed by the US Federal Reserve ... whole lot different. As soon as the collateraliization of these stable coin is challenged, it threatens to 'break the buck', and collapse the coin. Simply putting up a bigger pile of sh1t as collateral - doesn't help. We used to think that a MM fund, backed with high quality treasuries and short-term notes, could not fall below its guaranteed minimum value. Then we discovered that they can ... and what happens when they do. https://www.thebalance.com/reserve-primary-fund-3305671 SD

Keep in mind that objective, risk tolerance, risk management, and time horizon, matter a great deal here. If you opt for direct investment versus via an o/g ETF, you need to be very clear on these. 'Fuzzy' is to rely on luck, clarity is to build material wealth via calculated risk/return. The companies with high EV/share torque (OBE, ESI, RIG, etc) will greatly outperform the more conservative names (CVE) in a rising oil price environment. But a CVE bought at todays low price, could very easily end up with an 8%+ cash yield, once dividends are fully reinstated. The drillers typically also pay a significant variable dividend as/when they book material FCF. ESI-T is also partly owned by FFH (2-5% investment position) Best of luck. SD

Depending on your risk tolerance, look at both CVE-T, and ESi-T. CVE is generating 1B+ of FCF/quarter, will be selling non-core assets, repurchasing 10% of its shares (COP holding), and restoring its dividend over 2H 2021. Choice of shares or warrants. ESI has acquired 2 other drillers within the last 15 months, has one of the largest high efficiency drilling fleets in the business, supply for this type of rig is tight, and demand has already driven day rates up 2-3K. And this is before M&A, as buying reserves is currently both cheaper and faster than drilling for them. SD

The tech folks have lost a lot of money - and need someone to blame. Developers are nervous because no stable coin = no ability to convert sh1tcoin holdings into cash/loans to fund ongoing development. The off-shore folks are nervous in case stable coin scrutiny, spills over into the asset backed token market; those disguised securizations/mutual funds aren't backed quite the way you thought they were! Banks are nervous as a crypto blowup will accelerate CBDC implementation, and disrupt the banking business both more and sooner than intended. Most CB's would also prefer a blowup after their covid economies recover, and not before. Lot of chaff to burn, but nobody wants an uncontrollable fire as 'moral hazard' comes back into play. We might not like it, but this is the environment BTC was designed for, chaos and zero tust. And we even have CME guaranteed counterparty settlement, to ensure we get paid the M2M on our BTC puts Hard to be concerned, when the world is actively proving the proof of concept. SD

Think of inflation in the global context. You export inflation when your inflation rate is higher than the other guys - you do that by offshoring your supply chain, and paying for the cheap goods in a reserve currency (USD). Domestic manufacturing and jobs, move to where production costs are substantially cheaper - in return you get cheap goods, and less domestic inflation. Globalization really took off in the 80's, and has only recently begun to dial back. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Globalization NA is now onshoring its supply chains again (protectionism). So expect greater domestic inflation pressure, offset by ageing population, and changing tech (gas to EV vehicles, blockchain, etc). The chinese mystery - is whether domestic consumption is robust enough, to replace diminished exports as supply chains onshore? Our own view (at the global level) is mostly net neutral NA inllation, impacting different segments of society very differently. China as a net neutral as well albeit with greater domestic stimulation, and focus on maintaining the Yuan/Renmimbi peg. Their current crypto crackdown is for a reason. SD

You think the market is bubbly? Really? ....how do you actually KNOW that? how do you KNOW that you are just not over-reacting? Then even if you are right (the market IS in a bubble) ... what are you really going to do? Not invest, simply because you are fearful? Point? As in everything, all decisions carry risk - there are no guarantees. If you aren't comfortable with that, there any number of investment professionals more than happy to help you. It will save you a lot of heart-ache, and a great deal of wealth! SD

We've had the benefit of investing through many bubbles, both in NA and the UK .... Most will have no idea if they are in a bubble, until they have been in it for some time. You make money when you realize that, ahead of the crowd; the bubble itself really doesn't matter, ability to think 'independently' - does. Bubbles are sector specific, (RE, BTC, o/g, etc), the sector rises relative to the broader market. O/G rises as demand/supply issues push it, the broader market declines as interest rates rise to deter inflation (lower P/E multiple). You do well because you know your sector very well - riding the cycle up and exiting before it turns. But it means exposing yourself to risk. To STAY rich - you must keep taking $ off the table (risk management). If you know your industry, you already have a pretty good as to when - you do not need to be perfect. The real issue is what do you then do with the gains. Good luck! SD