SharperDingaan

A few additions, as one of my partners has significant expertise in this area. Trying to predict outcome from a disparate data flow is a fools game. At best the prediction is just a more precise guess, but it just has to be better than the other guys. Back testing is typically against a VaR model, with an AI algorithm that is 'fitted' to the data. Hence the predictive power has to be truly awful to fail the test parameters, yet most do. They can all predict a number, but the +/- standard deviation is so high as to be essentially useless. Noise versus signal is typically addressed by applying opposing white noise (randomly generated) against the source. Viewed on an oscilloscope you would see a flat line with spikes/valleys suggesting signal. Increase the opposing white noise and you will see fewer but stronger signals - if they exist. The process is well understood, and widely used in robotic industial bottling to poduce a 'fill' within preset upper and lower boundaries at a CI of 95% or better. An AI robot continually sniffing, continually sees 'new' signal, and could trade accordingly - we call this 'learning'. Problem is that for this to work, the future data stream has to look similar to the 'sampled' historic data stream. The repeated back testing failures tell us that this isn't the case. It also ignores competitors deliberately introducing toxic 'data points' into the market, to screw up your algorithm - & trade against it. End of the day it essentially remains a zero-sum game. The AI slice of industry profit barely covers its costs, and comes at the cost of smaller slices of instutional and retail clients. Speed, # of transactions, and trading volumes increase - but no net benefit. Not quite what we're being led to believe. SD

The warehouse full of rigs is a mining pool, the biggest of which are in China. Their main issues are the costs of eletricity, obsolescence, and ongoing crackdowns by various authorities. https://www.buybitcoinworldwide.com/mining/china/ Mining pools mine for multiple coins, & essentially allocate CPU based on return/CPU second. Pay up or you get no mining, & do it by reducing the complexity of the hash - to push out more coin for the same amount of CPU time. The result is multiple coin, and quasi monopoly control. Coin from mining pools is typically converted into Bitcoin, for later sale into the market. Bitcoin options and futures are used to control price volatility, and provide liquidity until the underlying coin is sold. Hence there is a persistent seller of underlying coin, and a bias for downside price protection. Opportunity So long as mining rig sales, & traditional ICO's continue to funnel cash into the eco-system, there is cash to cover operating costs. But squeeze the back-street exchanges, regulate the ICO process, and speed up rig obsolescence - & only the Bitcoin derivatives market is left. Again, opportunity. Altcoin is a P2P business, and one of the key business models of P2P is addiction. The consolidated mining pool is the digital equivalent of a drug cartel. SD

CPP 2018 A/R http://www.cppib.com/en/ar2018/ Every generation in a DB pension plan bitches that the generations before it got a 'free ride'. Until it's pointed out that were it not for those previous generations, there would not be a pension plan. It is also pretty to hard to argue that the CPP will 'not be there' when the time comes. Every Canadian is guaranteed a minimum retirement income (CPP, OAS, GIS) by the federal government; the same guarantee that backs every fixed income obligation issued by the Bank of Canada. Uncles just didn't want nephews relying on it. The major Canadian DB Pension Plans (CPP, CP, Teachers, OMERS, OPSEAU, HOOPP, etc) are also very well run, and currently are for the most part in significant SURPLUS positions. Re centralized universities: http://www.electronicinfo.ca/universities Agreed universities are in the major population centres, and most people live in the major population centres. Hence for most people there is a university within relatively easy commuting distance. But if you're from a rural area, from northern canada, or your university isn't very good, or doesn't offer your language (first nation, french, etc.) - you are going to have to travel. Nothing wrong with that SD

In the non-too-distant future I will be back in the crypto 'game', but this time as issuers of our own altcoin. 4 pref share altcoin and 1 utility token using fractional banking. For quite some time now, it has been practical to issue a block-chain altcoin as evidence of a stock certificate. The Oracle acts as both transfer agent, and exchange facility; the company itself typically being market-maker. The expectation is that the altcoin will not have a market unless there is a 'liquidity' event. We will be a regulated (FSCO) issuer in the charity space, funds for development and air-drops financed by prefs, liquidity event being a sale to a larger player (province, fed, etc.). Structured as esentially a modified P3; contribute to the venture and get your cummulative contributions back if we can get it taken out; block-chain, smart-contract applications heavily supporting operations. It will very likely launch with the 'traditional' whitepaper, and a seperate business plan released under confidentiality agreement. We also understand that it will be the first of its kind in Ontario, & quite possibly Canada as well. There were lots of ways to 'short' the Bitcoin run-up to 20K/token. This is just one of them ;) SD

According to StatsCan an average of 30000 people moved to the U.S. per year from 2000 to 2010, less than 1% of the population. (there were no stats on how many were college graduates that moved) StatsCan also shows about 450000 people get a post secondary diploma or degree each year. Just to add to this: Per StatsCan Canada has 37M people, with the bulk of population growth coming from immigration. As College/University facilities are centralized, graduates are expected to move to find work. No different to the US. https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/12-581-x/2018000/pop-eng.htm There is a very big difference between students simply using the opportunity to travel/work abroad immediately after graduation, and people moving for a better life. Graduates are also shoppiing for their significant others - so if you play hockey, and like blue-eyed blonds?, you move to Scandanavia and find one to help you learn the language. Ultimately, life events will determine where you end up. SD

Quite agree, it's the smart thing to do. But I'll also rapidly pay more - right now; if you simply cut off the water to my lot, and block my sewage outlet (infrastructure)! And I cant get out of it unless I either pay up, or sell up!! Welcome to the gilded cage. SD

NAFTA has a 10 year reversible termination transition. Even if the plug is pulled tomorrow, NAFTA will continue through the next 2 1/2 electoral cycles - and the chump can do absolutely nothing about it. Nobody would negotiate a shorter term, and nobody would enter into one-sided bi-lateral trade with such a dominant partner. Yet the chump is f***** if he can't get a 5-year sunset clause? Is the chump likely to still be president in 10 years? Are successor administrations likely to be as disruptive as this one? If the answer is 'no' - the responsible thing is to continually make the case that restricting free trade hurts everyone, and not negotiate. That hypothetical new foreign plant isn't going to get built in the US either, as who would want to deal with an administration that tore up a free trade deal that worked - for a long time, and very well? That hypthetical new domestic plant ain't going to be exporting either, so it can only be a smaller plant employing fewer people (smaller market + robots replacing people). Real smart. The players might change, but the show will go on. SD

Canaada is not the US. It's a deliberate choice 'by the people of Canada, for the people of Canada'. If the US cannot export its milk, eggs, or chicken that is purely a US problem. Produce less, eat more of it, or let it rot. Every country maintains strategic reserves, typical US examples are oil, certain minerals, certain technologies, etc. Canadian family farms are strategic reserves. Relying on bigger, (primarily US) corporate farms for cheaper food, is a very dumb thing - as anytime the US chose to restrict/cut off food supply, Canada would starve. Paying more to maintain family farms, is a lot cheaper than paying extortion money to an oligarch of food suppliers. The US is whining because the targeted tarifs are biting. Almost all trade partners have targeted the same industries, and employment in those industries is about to rapidly crash without a prompt resolution. The chump tried to bully his way at the G6+1, and lost so badly that he had to run away early (4 hours earlier than planned?). So now he's doubling down, and trying to distract wih NK instead. Sadly bodies are going to have to fall before there's a change. And it will not be until a whole lot of republicans lose their seats. SD

The linkage is just less apparent in developed countries. Much more of the population works in the gig economy, than has been the case for a very long time. While an energetic bright fellow could do very well, most people will take home less - and lose benefits such as healthcare, drugplans, etc. Costs that now have to be paid out of a reduced income. Food has seldom been cheaper that it is today, but its cost has begun to rise. For a great many people a 10% increase in food cost + a 5% increase in shelter costs (mortgage/rent) = at least one monthly visit to the foodbank. How long is a politician going to stay in power, when those foodbank users are coming from the richer neighborhoods? Supposedly if food costs more - you would cut back elsewhere. But it doesn't happen this way. Are you really going to give up that 2nd car? Sell the house and move to something smaller (mortgage you can actually afford)? Give up that coffee habit or street lunch 4+days/week? Give up some data usage on your cell phone? Or is it more likely that you're going to use debt to maintain that lifestyle that you can no longer afford? Until you're cut off. But if everyone BK's at the same time, everyone gets bailed out. Politiciians are replaced in the name of change, protectionism is imposed, & locals are put back to work - to raise the money to keep servicing their debt. In different times we called this slavery, 'selling your soul to the company stole'. Same masters in place, just different generations. Ultimately the cause is rising basic costs (food costs), and inability to adapt. SD

The US would not expect to drop its subsidies in Agriculture (corn), or Europe to drop its subsidies in dairy. So why should Canada? If the US is so competitive, why are its agricultural subsidies so high relative to the price of the product produced? Remove those subsidies and either US farmers bankrupt, or prices rise so high (to compensate for removal) that no one can afford to eat the product. Keep the subsidy, produce only what you consume, and everyone can eat for less. Everyone else gets it, the US .... not so much. Food is not a 'normal' product. Farmers are price takers, collectively producing as much as possible to maximize revenue received. Problem is that when EVERY farmer EVERYWHERE does that, the ocean of product isn't worth anything as supply greatly exceeds demand. Farmers bankrupt until there are only a few left, grain bins empty as supply dwindles, and a loaf of bread ends up costing whatever those remaining NOW HUGE farmers dictate. We have subsidized prices, around the world, for a reason - it mitigates against civil unrest. When food becomes out of reach, populations riot. SD

I'm really cool with this attitude. It means that those pink sheet, unlisted companies that are worth buying will trade at a deeper discount then they otherwise would. The better for me to buy, my dear. Only so long as it doesn't BK next week! SD

Just to add to this ... Your report is a marketing document. Show that you can write, you are not the same as everyone else, and can demonstrate the RELEVANT value proposition by the 2nd paragraph. You have to beat the guy in Asia, who also has a CFA - but costs 1/2 what you you do. If you're so good why aren't you rich yet ? (& therefore talking to me). It is really about ROI, and every salesperson has a credible story. Question is are you walking the talk, & is it clearly your best option? Hard to sell a client that your idea is the best option, if in looking at you he/she thinks that you cant even identify your own best ROI opportunity (MBA versus continued time in the industry). Prospective return over remaining runway usually being the main determinant. Up and out. You have to steal someone else's lunch, and are only as good as your last idea. Analysts are inventory, and all else equal - LIFO will prevail. The cuts will also be driven primarily by market level; so great ideas in a falling market aren't going to help you. Conversely in strong winds - even the worst analyst is going to get employed, and on very little 'effort'. So what? It really comes down to market forecast (timing). If you think the winds are strengthening it might be worth continuing, if not ..... it's a different calculation. Best of luck. SD

Keep in mind that combing the pink-sheets is digging in dog-sh1te. https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/070313/use-caution-trading-pink-sheet-stocks.asp If the firm could not make/maintain a listing requirement, do you really want to be in it? If the firm (Nestle, etc.) is actually listed elsewhere (just not in the US), is it really 'unlisted'? Investors prefer to trade on a listed exchange because there is far more investor protection. Trading a pink sheet is akin to trading on a back street exchange, and hoping the other side is going to be honest with you. It is not in their interest. SD

Probably not what you want to hear .... but just do an MBA and by-pass the investment industry entirely. Go the corporate finance route instead, and aim at the Treasurer/CFO positions in the Fortune 500 to Fortune 1500. You already have the CFA. Count how many 'old' people you see in a GS/MS/etc. Estimate their 'average' age and deduct your age. That's how long you can expect to remain in the industry - IF everything works out. Still seem worth it ?? GS/MS/etc. is just the match-maker between investor and business (corporate finance dept). The GS/MS 'old' folks move to corporate finance, and without them (as alumni) GS/MS would do a lot less business; so why not just go to corporate finance directly. You will be doing much the same thing. SD

I'd rather pay 15-20% rates for a few years, while wages are also inflating relatively rapidly, and then be left to pay the rest of the principal over a couple decades at much lower rates, than sign up for a gigantic amount of debt at almost zero interest rates, knowing that rates will likely rise over a couple decades and the principal will still have to be paid. Mortgage rates in the high teens are incredibly destructive. You don't try to buy a house, you just try to hang on to what you have and hope that rates will be lower when you have to renew. If it means renewing at 5-6% above your previous rate, there is a very real chance that you will have to sell the house. If your mortgage is floating you need (a lot of) renters to help cover the interest. As an additional 25bp on your mortgage every quarter costs an additional $250/yr per 100K of mortggage. IE: Extra $250 for Q1, extra $500 for Q2, extra $750 for Q3, extra $1000 for Q4. Yes, an extra $1000/yr is only $83.33/month (1-2 coffee's/day) - but if your mortgage is $500K its $416.67/month ABOVE what you are already paying. Give up that 2nd car or find a renter, and be prepared to give up MORE next year. SD

It's just clever marketing. Early boomer grandpa dies, kids (30-40's) inherit. Net-worth increases. $ received pay off motgage, monthly mortgage payment is now discretionary cashflow. Distort cause/effect. Wealth of $X = income requirement of $Y. You're under it. You have to do something. Bait/switch. Income is really a proxy for discretionary cash (cash in - cash out), these OTHER numbers are what you would need. Capture. Commit 70% of your 'freed' mortgage payment. You too could retire as one of the 1%, AND have some extra cash to spend! Reinforce. Friends envy you. Comes your turn ... this is the guy who helped us. The question never asked? .... what are you REALLY going to do with an income of 470K every year. It's way more than most people could possibly ever need, and at this level most people could buy a new house, AND FULLY PAY IT OFF, every 2 years. The primary beneficaries would seem to be your therapists, liquor store, and drug dealer. .... Can't possibly have the client asking this! distract them with the pretty coloured forecasts instead ;) SD

It would be very naive to believe that widespread manipulation does not exist in both the crypto-currency markets and the ICO space. In many places, it is the main reason why a back-street exchange is created. As there are very few legal penalties, it is an entirely rational and profitable thing to do. Attend any Blockchain/AI conference, and the level of audience anti-government, anti-regulatory stance is obvious. DL is the solution! they're trying to take it away from us! don't let them! Not a lot different to a US pro-gun rally, and many of the same tactics. Drown out the longer term requirements of corporate social responsibility, and you can continue with the short-term profit manipulation. Money is oxygen, starve the flow and the target suffocates. Bitcoin, as the only crypto with a recognized option and future market, is the only crypto that is institutionally 'investable'. Probes, concerns, etc. oblige the majority of institutional money in the space to stick to Bitcoin, diverting money away from the other crypto, starving flow and lowering prices. US KYC is moving to the BitLicence outlines of 23 CRR-NY 200 15(h). Identification and verification of account holders, and enhanced DD if you are trading crypto. Cant trade virtual currency with a foreign entity that does not have a physical presence in any country. Its getting harder to trade annonymously, corroding the annonymity of cryptocoin, and harder to divert institutional flow away from regulated channels - further starving capital flow. Currently, it's hard to put up Bitcoin as loan collateral. Play ball, and rules could be changed, lowering cost and greatly expanding the Bitcoin market space - at the expense of oher crypto. Particularly back-street market crypto. .... And all the time the various laws around the world are catching up, and cross-referencing against each other. Shrinking the legal vacumn. Hard to be sympathetic. SD

The housing market changes drastically, new hubby updates the purely 'rational' spreadsheet. You currently rent. The spreadsheet says buy, new wife agrees, next few months are spent narrowing down neighborhoods (with spreadsheet assistance), and looking at houses. So far so good, all pefectly logical. 3 possibles show up. A teardown shit-box that can be rebuilt into whatever you want, #1 choice of the spreadsheet. A good average house that only requires minor updates (remove a wall or two, update kitchen, new appliances, carpet/hardwood, etc), #2 choice of the spreadsheet. A 'well lived in' quaint old house that will require major repairs in a few years, choice #3 way down on the spreadsheet. While construction/upgrades take place, you would continue to rent - minimizing disruption (& stacking the deck). You're informed with a wide smile, and a closing of the lap-top - that it's going to be #3. Because it has the best 'vibe'. WTF!! No further explanation required. Wife 1, Spreadsheet 0. Some things just cant be done by spreadsheet ::). SD

In the spirit of the thread I will add to this. During the GR2 I were offered a flat in Knightsbridge (London, UK) by a city acquaintance who needed to sell. He needed out quickly, and we were offered a fabulous price - provided we could give him some leeway. It was a lot of money for us, and as the property could not be mortgaged for a time - it meant margining/liquidating the lions share of the family portfolios. Significant risk. The typical UK practice (in Knightsbridge) is that you don't buy land plus the structure on it, you buy the unexpired portion of a 99 year lease on the land plus structure. The lessor then either lives there, or sells a series of sub-leases on the property over time in 1-5 year periods. Everyday operating costs are typically the sub-lessors responsibility. London has worked out very well for us, and we have been able to place the bulk of the gain in the hands of the nephews (tax reasons). Successive returns of capital have repaid the mortgages taken out along the way, and the nephews are now graduating and working in London. When the nephews enter their 30's the flat will be sold. I raise this anecdote because there are times when life-time RE oportunities will be offered, and you must be ready to grab at them. You need to keep your head - while all around you others are losing theirs, and have the courage to call the nay-sayers. In our case we have both investment and quantity surveyor expertise, so the decision was a lot easier. The WEB punch-card is not free. SD

Buy versus rent is not a numbers decision, and it will be decided by your significant other. Until you settle down, treat the place you sleep as just shelter, build your down payment as high as possible, and spend your time looking for the right person. Your time is better spent focused on the lifetime investment, not the brick and mortar one. As a single young person it makes little sense to buy. You are moving to where the work is, you have no idea how long you will be in city 'X', and you have no idea where your significant other is. Once she/he is found, at some point in the relationship you're going to want to try living together - and the old place is going to go. If you own a property; every time you move its 5% in commissions and another 10-15% (over time) to redecorate the place. For most folks, first kids will decide it. You will be cocooning in one place for 10-20 years, and the long hold period will heavily favor purchase over rent. The biggest new-build you can afford in a new development, with space to grow into, and trees that will be fully grown by the time you're ready to sell. Nothing prevents buying in city 'Y', and renting the place out while you live somewhere else (city 'X'). A great many young women do exactly this, and the property is often a shared purchase in a smaller city - shared between female siblings and a divorced parent. The women can get on the property ladder, without having to continually find tennants; yet retain their ability to move for work/romance. Put aside the spreadsheets. SD

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/commentary/article-initial-coin-offerings-welcome-to-a-world-of-charlatans-and-frauds/ Written by Nouriel Roubini "Thus it is little wonder that, according to the ICO advisory firm Satis Group, 81 per cent of ICOs are scams created by con artists, charlatans and swindlers looking to take your money and run. It is also little wonder that only 8 per cent of cryptocurrencies end up being traded on an exchange, meaning that 92 per cent of them fail." "Hence, most ICOs deny investors any legal rights whatsoever. They are generally accompanied by vaporous “white papers” instead of concrete business plans. Their issuers are often anonymous and untraceable. And they skirt all AML regulations, leaving the door open to any criminal investor" "Jay Clayton, the chairman of U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, recently made it clear that he regards all cryptocurrencies as securities, with the exception of the first mover, Bitcoin, which he considers a commodity. The implication is that even Ethereum and Ripple – the second- and third-largest cryptoassets – are currently operating as unregistered securities. Gary Gensler, a former chairman of the Commodities and Futures Trading Commission who now teaches a course on blockchain (the technology underlying cryptocurrencies) at MIT, has also suggested as much." The 92% failure inference is a little unfair; as ICO's are primarily issued by start-ups - and 92-95% of blockchain start-ups bankrupt within their first year. The take-away here is that even if there is a grandfathered solution, the prices of Ether and Ripple are highly likely to fall like a brick in the coming crackdown. Obviously, the investable solution is BTC futures and options. As at time of writing ETC is trading at USD 675.79, and XRP is trading at USD 0.692 SD

Trains are stuck to rails, and go only from point A to point B. Trucks are not, and it's why we have inter-modal transport. You build a regional distribution centre next to a rail line, and transport containers to/from port via rail. Unload the containers, unload the contents, & distibute to warehouse &/or sales locations by truck. Where possible automate the warehousing to maximize reliability and minimize cost. The 'last mile' truck isn't driverless, as cost exceeds benefit. The main cost driver for self-drive trucks is JIT inventory requirements. Pay more for the greater control and reliability of trucks, and offset the cost against lower working capital costs. The more limited contents of 3-4 trucks 2-hours late because of border delays will not shut down a production line, the much bigger quantities in a delayed train will. Take the truck drivers out, to further improve control and reliability. The big benefit is greater safety on the highways. Fewer fatigued long-haul drivers and more fresher local drivers, with rail and self-drive doing more of the long-haul. SD

Pretty much. Trucks will continue to handle excess demand, short-distance logistics, etc., but the bulk will still be transported by rail for reasons Cardboard mention. Self-driving trucks will disrupt the trucking industry, but it's not going to displace rail. In the supply-chain use, finding/retaining long-haul drivers has always been a problem. Most would expect that the operating cost of a self-drive will only be marginally lower than for a truck+driver (dont cut cost if you dont have to); but it will go a long way to alleviating the driver problem. In the mning use, driver cost is the issue (200K+ to drive a 300 ton Heavy Haul truck). It's boring work, you need a lot of them, and its prone to injuries through inattention. Driverless is both a real cost-reducer and safety-enhancer. There are also advantages to deep hard-rock mining where temperatures are high & cooling systems are at/past practical limits. SD

Do a google search on cryptocurrency funds. Read up on what non-recourse means. For this purpose non-recourse is a free put option on the unit - with proceeds equal to the margin borrowed. So continually sell the rips, buy the dips, and withdraw capital from both fund and broker. Continually test withdrawal ability, liquidate immediately and withdraw everything as soon as there is resistance. If it blows up, simply walk-away. It will not make you friends, so expect resistance. Brokers/HF's are supposed to make the money, not the client. https://next.autonomous.com/cryptofundlist/ https://www.investitin.com/crypto-fund-list/ SD