SharperDingaan

One concentrates to get rich, and diversifies to stay rich. It's not a casino, and a live hero progressively takes $ off the table as the position performs; paying down debt/mortgages to lower monthly P & I obligations. ' Cause if you are suddenly underwater tomorrow ... it's a lot easier carry when you have lower monthly payments to make. Swing trades are expected, and part of the process. These are companies that you know extremely well, how they make money, when, and their inherent risks; manic depressives will routinely offer you opportunities, that should be exploited. Systematically sell high, buy back low, and take the $ gains off the table. Solid risk management, and temperament are core; most don't have the patience, can't tolerate being a 'market outsider', and lack the circle of competence/technical expertise. But after a while, move a good chunk of the portfolio out of your direct management; hubris is a fine line. Also keep in mind that for most people,diversification doesn't mean an index fund; it's often 3-5 dividend payers, T-Bills, bonds, indexed pensions, and a fully paid off house. Minimised cash outflow obligations, offset against pension cash inflow, with dividends/interest covering any shortfall; T-Bills covering sudden liquidity demands. Diversification via different means. SD

Our big summer transaction was a BTC swing trade around the halving, and a gradual 50% repurchase around the 58K mark; gains poured into GXE.TO which has remained flat-lined, but pays a 9% monthly cash dividend. Very old fashioned .... until that one day .... when we'll suddenly look like a hero SD

First there was temple-bar in the afternoon, then the concert ... then the airport show the next morning! The 3-hour pre-arrival for international flights that became 4-hours, as every 2nd/3rd hung-over 65+ geezer in AC/DC gear made their way home ... playing the sound on their phone (as loudly as tolerable), 3-5 at a time! I understand that similar to Taylor Swift ... Dublin return via Ryan Air, plus two nights hotel, plus concert ticket, plus a duty-free 750 ml bottle of Jameson to take home with you, was expected to be about the same price as buying a ticket at home (were it available). Of course ... it's Ryan Air .... so you're only taking your passport/carry-on with you Great concert. SD

ETH ... The reality is that ETH is obsolete from the business POV. It is the old world give me development cash for a functional token (running on an ERC code) that does something ... vs the new world of bypass the token entirely and pay only for the demonstrated functionality as/when needed with CBDC. No developer risk, no inventory of non-liquid token with minimal cash value, don't pay if it can't do. Startup developers nightmare. ETH is obsolete processing. It is far cheaper to simply buy capacity on someone else's high capacity private ledger that includes smart contract capability; no different to the everyday make vs buy decision that all businesses do every week. However it will not takeoff until a MicroSoft offers this to the masses the same way that it offers Excel, Word, Access, etc. Not tomorrow ...but the fuse is clearly burning. Marketing wise, ETH is a failure because there is no mass product (ie: MS Office). Functionally, it's purely a startup development tool within the tech community, a step up from a Go Fund Me campaign; serves a purpose, but it's never going to be mass market. It is also questionable whether ETH or CBDC/T-Bills better diversify a crypto portfolio. Do your own back tests before forming an opinion ... Tech has little choice but to sing praises to ETH as it is a development funding tool. However, everyone else doesn't have to swallow the Kool-Aid. SD

MtGox, FTX/Alameda, multitude of smaller law enforcement seizures in various jurisdictions around the world, collateral that was put up for loans (Tether), etc. While derivatives can transfer beneficial ownership at any time (avoiding on-chain visibility), borrowers have to maintain enough ongoing liquidity to settle MTM adjustments; when they suddenly can't .... it's the same as a margin call. Collateral gets sold down, not HODLed. SD

AC/DC in Dublin. Last show in the European Tour. SD

Few doubt that demand for BTC will increase with rising adoption in the institutional market, but there is very little recognition that bankruptcies have frozen 10%+ of total supply. As that supply gets distributed it will force down price as recipients sell at the margin. Selling pressure also amps further as miners have incentive to sell their BTC asap versus hold for an appreciation gain as well. Sell quick to maximize cash, hedging covering losses on any BTC below the strike. if you think bankruptcy recipients will not sell down their written off BTC, power to you. But most everyone who has a lottery win spends at least part of it, before putting away the rest. An unstable market overhang that could go at any time. Sentiment changes every day. Have to think there will be at least a few days when the manic depressives are doing their thing. Seems a shame to stand in their way! SD

The reality is that btc is < 60,000 when many hoped it would be > 8O,000 by now; lot of bunnies looking for 'guidance' and not finding it. Not much reason to accumulate until US election results are known, and lots of reason to trade the rips - raising volatility. Opportunity. GLTA SD

Just another day during the 'good old days' of the VSE Nobody can make anything on these things unless they control the box, and they are most vulnerable just before the pump is launched. Blow the box apart, collapse the track record, and their creditors will do the rest. Thereafter, make a bulk offer for the now dud inventory .... and take over the box As with everything else there are a few very good at this; they pay a fee, and are left to keep the rest in line. Regulation just done a different way, and far more effective than it might otherwise be. SD

The US (+ most of western Europe) has long kept its BTC, acquired over the years via its various security arms, as a 'off-book' strategic reserve. Ever since the Silk Road clampdown, the US has remained one of the biggest holders of BTC, and is very likely the actual owner of many a cold storage whale vault. Bills quietly die, and business goes on as usual. SD

It would seem that BTC has been making its way into many an institutional IPS, and that we're finally moving towards a more widespread commercial implementation of a version of BTC protocol. Winners and losers, largely a function of their ability to successfully manage change. SD

It's summer, silly season, and a lot easier to just follow the haters versus think for yourself. Notable is that the drillers Q2 report outlooks are suddenly more optimistic, and that the WCP Q2 vs Q1 netbacks are $5+ higher; with only 1/2 of 1 one month reflecting the lower differentials resulting from new TCP pipe. Most would expect the Q3 netback to be similar or better, and WCP to be representative. Help yourself, while everyone is enjoying the Olympics. Then join them at the patio once you're done SD

We did very well on AQN; but exited a long time ago as there are so many better Canadian risk/return options. If you think the Republicans sweep the upcoming US election, TC Energy is a far better opportunity. Pure speculation: Imagine that 'Drill Baby Drill' also translates into a change in the Canadian federal government, and the Keystone XL pipeline being restarted. The existing write-offs would very likely be reversed, and otherwise payable compensation re NAFTA would very likely go toward guaranteeing debt on the remainder of the pipeline build. An additional 830K bbl/day of heavy crude, on top of the new egress from Canada's west coast - and all of it a material bump in TC's rate base, leading to higher dividends Complete Keystone XL, and the McKenzie Valley quickly enters the frame; transporting Alaskan/North-Shore/Beaufort Sea oil/gas to the US - via pipeline through the US/Nunavut/BC/Alberta instead of via sea. Debt repayment on Keystone funding the build cost. Sock drawer stock, that will benefit the next generation. SD

Its really an indication that the MakerDAO ecosystem is under stress. Any CB with a CBDC could do this tomorrow (China); the CB simply creates a new ledger for every treasury issued, and thereafter processes the security the same way as it is already doing with its CBDC. Full transparency (to the CB) over the securities life from birth to death. Trying to do this via a stable-coin is an attempt to money launder, via a treasury purchase out of the market. Gives an idea as to the nature of MakerDAO's ecosystem, and its magnitude. MakerDAO is a Chinese entity SD

Please, please, please ..... let the US Fed take over what the US security services currently holds. 'Cause without it, we're all f***** !!! SD

Just keep in mind that it's only Q2; many a company will announce direction but doesn't actually declare until January. SCR also have incentive to buy back some of their own stock (using dividend funds) and do tuck-in acquisitions paid for with stock and cash from the drilling budget. Drilling companies are all forecasting 'no change in activity' for the rest of the year, and the industry has been paying down debt for quite some time. Most would expect that post TMP expansion, newly found cash will be aggressively going into M&A consolidation. SD

Welcome to the board! Long a proponent of concentrated positions, a couple of takeaways .... 1) How you get into it, drives your investment approach; getting rich, versus staying rich, is very different. 2) Successors have different interests, tastes, and skill sets; there are ways around this, but assume riches/rags in 1 generation. 3) Investment expertise and an independent approach helps; but simpler the better. On real estate, we take a page from the multi-generational living page-book. Rather than each generation on a different floor within the same house; we prefer to split the house ownership across generations - kid with 50%+ financed via a mortgage, parents/grandparents willing their <50% to future grand-kids. Investment RE held in a corporate structure, each property in its own entity, and debt used to reduce net income to zero (zero-tax). Whether the RE be a dwelling (London, UK), or the partnership portion in a hotel (Paris, France). Sadly, the better one does at this, the more corrosive to the overall family that success becomes. Hence, to keep the family 'healthy' you need to have a way of systematically giving some of it away; we try to trigger an earlier payment of taxes, so that there's less to pay on passing. Just have to get past intentionally writing the CRA a cheque! SD

Now with a 7:1 consolidation, a ridiculous share count, and a trading opportunity. www.cathedralenergyservices.com/_files/ugd/b8bab0_244f29c1d5694e80b1ed6b998900a6a7.pdf SD

You might want to go through the prospectus again; they have disclosed (and remained silent) on everything they need to. This thing has no actual BTC; they maintain their exposure via derivatives plus T-Bills, and say as much. They also have discretion to pay dividends to reduce the ETF's price volatility, and are not tied to an amount or frequency. It looks like they are working towards splitting the fund; one fund that tracks BTC very closely, but does not pay a dividend; and another fund that tracks BTC less closely in return for a variable monthly dividend. The prospectus is silent on the definition of 'closely tracks', and their messaging could use some work. Not to recommend one over another, but you might want to look at the Purpose Investment funds; multiple crypto funds, two of which are BTC funds - one of them a dividend payer. Notable is that these funds existed well before BITO, and the Canadian regulatory review/experience was quite likely a building block that the SEC drew upon. https://www.purposeinvest.com/thoughtful/purpose-investments-launches-worlds-first-bitcoin-etf-invested-directly-in-the-digital-asset We use these funds as our primary crypto vehicle, largely because as Canadian investors we have far better regulatory protections than we would have were we to use a US based equivalent. We have no desire to compound crypto risk on top of market risk as well. SD

Most would expect that they are selling options, and replacing underling BTC with the derivative equivalent; premium income, plus derivative leverage, releasing cash to fund the dividend while keeping net exposure the same .... the ETF itself ending up as a portfolio of primarily T-Bills and BTC derivatives. Options also gets them around the daily MTM on any BTC pledged as collateral. SD

A lot of this is also risk management and time horizon; long-term vs short-term looks very different. Our newer vintages are all 5-10 year holdings, and include BNE.TO, GXE.TO, CET.TO, and a BTC-ETF. All large share counts, and each a life-changing position should it work out as we hope; BTC-ETF held as the other side of swing trades as we go through the holding period. BNE has ridiculous share count, GXE a ridiculous dividend, CET is a 'forever' call on drilling eventually returning, BTC-ETF as the high-return/low-correlation diversifier. Why a BTC-ETF? BTC is currently USD 61K; if you expect around USD 85K by year-end, you anticipate a 39% return. However, if you also have the discipline to trade the volatility, you can expect an additional 12-15% per swing-trade round trip. The ETF is much more liquid and cost effective, and pretty hard to argue against. SD

Look at the cdn small-mid caps, but screen only against periods when the netbacks were similar. Today's differentials and costs are a lot lower; today's usd 80 wti is the 100+ wti back in the day. Names aside, you will also see just how undervalued everything currently is relative to the underlying economics. There is a reason why WEB is looking at the WCSB. SD

When used in a currency application; a stablecoin is little more than a bad currency peg, that instantly becomes obsolete as soon as one of the pegged currencies has a CBDC. It's essentially a collateralised debt obligation with high ongoing fees and the new instrument as the stablecoin. Developers with no other financing choice, using exploitable currency pegs, that routinely collapse. Whereas, when used in an automation application, stablecoin offers off-shore suitcase bankers lots of promise; arguably, the real target in this first stage of the regulatory arbitrage. SD

The actual details are quite a bit different .... Pathways has not made the final decision yet as they are still awaiting tax credit finalisation; less than two weeks ago it was apparently almost-in-place. Play nice, take down the content today and cite why (Bill C-59); replace with new content in a month after the tax credit is law, and the investment decision has been made. https://boereport.com/2024/06/20/pathways-alliance-oilsands-group-removes-all-website-social-media-content/ "..... Pathways has removed its content due to uncertainty around an anti-greenwashing provision in federal Bill C-59. The omnibus bill,....., contains a truth-in-advertising amendment that would require corporations to provide evidence to support their environmental claims. Some environmental groups have said these ads are misleading, as the Pathways Alliance has not yet made a final investment decision on its proposed $16.5-billion carbon capture and storage network." https://pipelineonline.ca/freeland-to-oilsands-tax-credit-nearly-law-time-to-start-building-carbon-capture/#/?playlistId=0&videoId=0 " Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland says a major federal tax credit to help build carbon capture projects is almost in place and she wants to see quick progress on the project promised by Canada’s biggest oilsands firms." ... This isn't just a tax-credit; it will also enable low-rate financing on the typical federal/provincial/municipal formula, with the federal portion delivered via the Canada Infrastructure Bank. https://cib-bic.ca/en/ SD

There will also be enough very unhappy newly unemployed oil workers all over BC/Alberta/Saskatchewan, to make it very difficult for whichever political party is ruling Canada at the time. More rounds of protest in Ottawa, and everybody singing/pushing for more CCS and higher tar-sand production, or they are out of a job tomorrow. SD