SharperDingaan

There is a Canadian flip side to all this .. If, within the next 5-10 years, you were planning to convert a portion of a RRSP into a RRIF; you are probably going to see a 'guaranteed' interest rate of at least 2-3x what you are seeing today. Terrible thing, to pass on such an opportunity SD

BTC has many attractions, beyond just the functions of money. Similar to venereal disease (Impossible to kill), and the very robust de-facto counterpoint to capital controls and central bank digital currency. Both security and decentralization are king; all that is required is internet, and a local currency/BTC exchange rate. Forking, shards, lightning networks, etc. is simply batch processing. Process thousands of transactions/second, net them off, and buy/sell the BTC difference once every few minutes. No different to what most GSIB's and DSIB's already routinely do with settlements, multiple times a day. Security and Decentralization at the BTC level, Centralization and Scalability at the batch processing level. A work-around solution. The more batch processing the more net settlement demand for BTC, as crypto becomes more mainstream. The more global disruption, driving payment via BTC, the more transactional demand. And the higher the total transactional demand for BTC is, the sooner the 21M coin release is achieved. At which point BTC demand/supply settles on the price of the Satoshi needed to pay the miner, and a BTC trades at 100M x the price of a Satoshi. BTC inflation 'value' is predicated on a maximum 21M coin. That 1M+ of lost and/or 'frozen' coin along the miner distribution phase, remain lost 'forever' - really? Or is it much more likely that it is < 20M of BTC coin, and 1M+ of BTC naked derivatives? ('theoretically' supported by the coin in those lost and/or frozen wallets) Point? It is pretty hard to see how BTC doesn't move higher over time. You can choose to be road kill, or get with the program. SD

All else equal, rising interest rates and a drift down in inflation over time is reasonable (rising real return). Problem is, bigger and bigger rocks keep getting tossed into the global pond, and quicker - making the resultant inflation waves bigger, and compound upon each other. Most recognize that food prices around the globe are going to rise rapidly as Ukrainian crop production falters. But few recognize that global warming is also threatening the globes remaining growing areas with drought, and collapsed production. In most parts of the world, raise both food and cooking oil prices, and you get unstable regime change (Arab Spring). Compounding inflation further. Even if US rates rose 250bp, net of current inflation, bond holders would still have a negative real return. Theory suggests that higher interest rates should lower demand, and that bond holders should be moving to convertibles funding new P&E. That new investment pressuring limited resources and pushing inflation still higher. Our own view is that inflation is going a lot higher, and for a lot longer. Straight FI being a very dumb place to be, unless it is very short duration. SD

Re solar expansion. The issue isn't solar, it is the US approach being advocated. Build a massive green field farm in the middle of nowhere, ship the power out, and hope that nobody bitches. Bribes/lobbying will ensure that most of these will get built, but obviously, management is pretty clueless. In rural areas solar is more about the farmer putting panels on their land, selling the excess power to the grid, and taxpayers providing financing. Farmers save the cash cost of their monthly electric bill, plus get a little additional cash on top. The more organic, and the more take up, the more excess power there is. In urban areas it is more about roof top and glass curtain panels. Rooftop panels supplying the home, and excess power going to local grids. Condo/office blocks replacing portions of existing curtain wall, to supply most of the internal need. SD

A degree is just a union card, no different to a professional designation or a trade certification No card, no access to the magic kingdom, and no access to the prospective mates/spouse you might find within it. Competitive advantage has very little to do with it. This is also 2022, not 1992 - a great many young women routinely add trade certifications to their degrees. Traveling the world, in a gig economy, while adding a RN, and looking over prospective mates - is a common thing. Good on them! SD

Yet the median (dividing line) balance is 1/2 that of the average loan balance. IE: There are a lot of whining people with 50-60K balances, dragging the average up, looking for a bail out. The median $19,281 is no big deal over a working lifetime. It is just the $ investment you made in yourself; everybody around you also made $ investments in you, and have no problem with your expected future ability to pay it back. So .. either the student has no confidence in his/her future self (school was a free party!), or is just trying it on. Mommy/daddy might have given the student the money, but they've chosen not to pay the loan off - either because they're tapped out, or they are sending a message. Either way, a brush with the most unwashed debt collector possible, is a good outcome! The students good start in life is NOT GRADUATING DEBT FREE. It is the degree in his/her head, that results in better than a minimum wage job. You consistently make bad choices, you wear them - welcome to life! SD

The war crime thing enables possibilities When Putin doesn't show It generates an international arrest warrant. It also generates a UN prosecution, and humanitarian possibilities, that can be enforced by UN members and not NATO. Everything from an extraction of Putin himself, through to 'enforced' evacuation routes; by land, air, and sea. Blue helmets shepherding people out under protection of the participating UN armed forces; fire on them, and you lose your artillery &/or missile launch sites. SD

The weapons don't have to be heavier. The Belgorod strike was a proof of concept, lots of fire/smoke but relatively little damage. Were Ukraine serious, it would have also used drones dropping mines; both magnetic and AP - adding choppers just stirs the pot and drive up the loss. Today it was a refinery, tomorrow its your tank park? https://www.cbsnews.com/news/russia-ukraine-war-news-chernobyl-belgorod-oil-depot-attack/ https://www.icrc.org/en/doc/assets/files/other/icrc_002_0654.pdf SD

ESI.TO No div yet; but only a matter of time until they reinstate. Murray Edwards, and FFH have involvement. At the current CAD 3.67, most would expect a cash yield of 8.5-13.0% within 12 months, and capital appreciation of 100% We own a few, at a much lower cost base SD

The intent would seem to be resume assault, but ability suggests otherwise. Tanks/transport don't move with no gas, guns/launchers don't fire with no bullets/shells/missiles, troops don't move when commanders are dead. It's also doubtful that Putin can afford troops coming home, spreading 'tales from the front'. The more troops in the south, the less in the north, and the more exposed the czar becomes. And if that military is not entirely 'on board', the rink opens up a bit. Interesting times. SD

There are also the recent BBC reports of widespread dissention within the ranks, and refusal to fight. The old fodder is being replaced, and 'disciplined' in places where there are no cameras. This is Russia; expect some viscous fire fights, war crimes, and 'eliminations'. SD

The king may order, but it takes many fingers to push the button. Back in the day, press at the time; revealed Trump had ordered a nuclear strike on Qom; that saner heads declined to execute. Russia has saner heads too. Money is the oxygen a regime needs to survive; a plastic bag over its head, and it soon suffocates. Sanctions, currency implosion, etc. are just different bags. One/all works ... and suddenly there is a new king. SD

Russia will be declaring force majeure on its external debt very shortly. Shortly thereafter, all Russian financial transactions will be COD, and liquidity implodes; the Central Bank forced to print unlimited RUB, driving inflation and riots. And if there is no market to suck up those RUB (pay for oil, commodities, etc), Russia becomes an even more dangerous place. Employees/citizens simply convert RUB into crypto as soon as they get them, same as everyone else already does in a South America. Shops take both RUB and crypto, where they have to. All that is required is internet, and that can easily be supplied via satellite. Europe is just being smart - it already has the gas. Putin wants conversion at todays Ruble/USD FX rate - USD 10M for RUB 800M. But if after force majeure the Ruble collapses to 1/3 its current value? delivery of RUB 800M only costs USD 3.33M - and the USD 6.67M gain can be given to European consumers to offset higher gas prices. Economics is such a bitch! We live in interesting times. SD

Business magazines used to be pretty good, but today? would you really buy the magazine, were you not already a subscriber? And when it did arrive? - did you actually read anything 'in the moment', or did you really just toss it aside 'for later'? If the answer was 'yes', it's clearly a pretty sh1tty product !! Trade magazines offer far better value for your time; not newsletters. They come at a cost/magazine, tout product for the industry, and are written by industry experts for industry experts, in real time.. In o/g it has been well known, and for quite some time, that there are serious shortages of mud, sand, transport, chemicals, and drill crew. And that in some basins, it is much worse than in others. Yet most investors are only going to discover this in early May - when Q1 earnings come out? Obviously, if you can apply what you read, you should do very well! If you just want to keep up on the 'market', you can do no better than the 'market' At any given time, either buy the index or hold cash, according to your view. If you want to keep up on 'industry circles of competence', you need to invest in ongoing maintenance. If you don't think it worth the cost of the subscription, you obviously don't have the 'industry circle of competence' that you think you have! Journalists will hate you, 'cause it costs jobs! And neglect to mention that the few employed to write for trade magazines, earn multiples more than most business columnists. Same total bill, just spread over fewer and better paid journalists! SD

The problem with mercenaries is that they work for the highest bidder, and the payer needs to periodically keep changing them. While the payer is the stronger man, they are a useful tool; when the payer is weakening .... the puppet master risks becoming the puppet. The Wagner Group WWII equivalent is the German SS. Yet despite incredible power, and effective control over Hitler, it still didn't work out so well for the SS. The organization broke up and scattered, a few were hanged, and a great many others met Nazi-hunters in the night. Lot of nations have their military equivalents, and all are very good. Attrition and bribery can be a bitch. Putin will not be czar 'forever', and it is increasingly becoming a time-limited engagement. This is what options were designed for. Dead money, until suddenly it isn't. SD

And that is its charm .... devastating, and hard to trace where it came from. SD

A man in Moscow buys a newspaper, glances at the front page, and throws it away. He does the same thing every day. Eventually the seller snaps "Why DO you do that?" 'I'm just checking for an obituary" "But obituaries aren't on the front page!" "The one I'm looking for will be." With jokes like these in circulation, one has to think there's also a healthy underground betting line. Obviously, the knives are lining up SD

Agreed re the security establishment. However the security establishment is an arm of the party, the spy master is old, not on his game anymore, and in the way of the advancement of ambitious people. Still useful for now; but as the asset value falls and the liability rises, it rapidly closes in on 'cut bait' time. Doubtful he passes away peacefully in bed. This is Russia; there will not be a power vacuum, and transition will be swift/brutal. At the practical level, there will be multiple near-simultaneous terminations; executors will not be able to remain in Russia, and it will primarily be their families that benefit - not them. Lot of body bags coming home, creating people with little to lose, and too many lit matches to put out. Clock ticks down instead. Ultimately, Russia will resolve Putin 'internally'; the when/how still to be determined. All that we can really do, is hold some binary options on a Russian recovery. And trust in the long-term survival of the Communist Party! Seems a reasonable bet. SD

It was a state sanctioned contract on Putin's termination, and all parties fully understand that. The communist party is free to continue ruling Russia, but it does so without Putin - their decision as to whether Putin remains alive or not. Bounty for the hit, and relaxation of sanctions once it's done. No different to the attempted WWII assassination of Hitler ,,, but this time, with no mistakes. The same doctrine applying to China and the US. Leader and party are not the same thing, and there needs to be a 'correcting' mechanism. The US has elections every 4 years, Russia and China just do it a little differently. The same doctrine ALSO applying to the global dictator community. No interference if within your own borders. Resistance if you interfere outside of your borders. Term limit, behave, and it is hands off. 3rd strike against and you are terminated. The Godfathers impose the rules, and the capos follow. Free reign within the rails, electrocution outside the rails. Capitalism at multiple levels SD

1M bounty for Putin's arrest, as at March 04. As at today; following Biden's Poland speech, it's quite a bit higher Not as many 'conditions' either https://fortune.com/2022/03/04/putin-bounty-russia-ukraine-1-million-dollars/ Last month (February) this was unimaginable. Today? it would appear the czar is loosing his grip. A year from now? maybe it proves fatal? Putin isn't the communist party, and the communist party is very good at survival. SD

It would seem that Putin now has a price on his head, and that global economic policy is indeed 'Putin in a box'. https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/russia-ukraine-march26-2022-1.6398710 Have to think there is now a new card deck. Putin as the 'Ace of Spades', and worth a lot more than a mere 25M! Thing is .. if you're one of the other 51 in the deck - Russian Roulette now has a whole new meaning. https://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-14666182 The obvious competitive solution is to do a deal. Hands off for X years, and an extended crackdown on your competitors ..... if the czar is dead? Verified by multiple and independent DNA testing, paid in BTC, and no questions asked? Capitalism is such a bastard! SD

Where do you think the BRIC thesis originally came from? Somebody just puled it out of their ass?? Whether one gives it credence or not is irrelevant, but to ignore the linkage is to bury ones head in the sand. The process creates opportunities, as does disruption of the process. It is what one does with those opportunities ..... SD

This has been well known for many years, but most just haven't recognized its significance. Many years ago I was reminded of what this meant by a very well travelled diplomat. To paraphrase ...An India, or an Asia, bats above its weight, because any kind of good governance in these geographies is really about 'safely' making millions of poor people wealthier. Millions of poor people able to spend a little more on better food/health/comfort quickly adds up to incremental massive demand on the underlying commodities enabling that better food/health/comfort. The US has a large population, and a high average annual spend/person, but its getting old. China has a much larger population, but its average annual spend/person is relatively modest, and the population younger. However, economic activity is essentially population x average spend/person. Over time, as those foreign populations progress into their higher spending years, and US spend diminishes - the nexus of economic activity inevitably shifts away from the US. The diplomat has long since passed, but his observation is just as true today as it was back then. SD

Look at a few of the below, and their approaches .... there are also a few others that are not mentioned in the article. https://techbullion.com/10-european-fintech-companies-in-the-real-estate-space-to-watch-out-for/ No opinion, merely a PSA SD

Just to add a different take. We own a long lease in Knightsbridge, and have had it for many years. Lease payments are paid up front, and rich Russians have been very good tenants. Demand is stronger than ever, and we will very likely get a 10-15% rent increase if we agree to re-let on a 2–3-year term. Quality counts. Whatever we put into London, is ‘safety’ money. As long as we only buy quality, we will always have a liquid market, no matter the worlds problems; liquidity at a discount/premium according to net money inflow at the time. Could have done the same thing in Vancouver/Toronto; we don’t, because we already have a ‘safe’ Canadian base, and prefer the diversification. ‘Safety’ money is almost never going to be the marginal money subject to rising mortgage rates, inflation, etc. Mortgage servicing is typically used to reduce net income to zero, and avoid taxes; not to purchase the property itself. However, foreign based safety money will drive up the price of the RE, and it will be subject to penalty if the property is not subsequently let. Invest via a local, and opportunities present. The business decision simply becomes whether similar quality RE in a secondary city, over the same time horizon, is the better choice. Midlands or Aberdeen, property/opportunity specific, vs London. Also, a lot less chance of digging a hole and hitting a long-lost Roman in a Birmingham - than there is in a London! At the practical level, location is really decided by objective. To get wealthy, invest in the secondary cities. To stay wealthy, invest in the highest quality London RE you can afford. Different POV SD