SharperDingaan

We maintain an entirely separate fixed income portfolio that is all bonds, and dividend paying stock; dividend payers as we expect share price appreciation, and not just dividend inflow. Canadian tar sand stocks are the 'new tobacco', many have both div yields > 6% plus an active option market, and are far better run than tobacco. Do a simple screen on the TSX energy index to find the tickers. It is useful to use the option market to initiate swing trades via a call assignment. We ONLY hold CAD dividend payers within our CAD portfolio, and ONLY European dividend payers within our GBP portfolio, 'cause it simplifies taxation. We can hold a FFH because it is a CAD entity (paying a US dividend), we cannot hold an Exxon. Similarly we can hold a UBS as it is EU, but cannot hold a Petrobus (Brazil). https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-trumps-new-bill-threatens-major-tax-increases-for-canadian-companies/ The expectation is that these are not traders; we want a low cost base, and expectation of a sporadic but growing dividend. Ideally the share price doubles within 7 years, and today's 6% cash yield grows to 8%. CAGR of around 17% per year [72/7 + (6+8)/2]. 50% capital repatriation roughly once every 5 years. SD

Traders trade the days stories, supported by 'bots and technical analysis. Analysts write the days stories, supported by fundamental analysis and the need to generate trade. Investors trade the expected change in a story over a given time horizon. Very little macro involved, other than being aware of economic events, and applying common sense. China trade gets cut-off Apr-12 (tariff announcement) .... ships don't sail, US west coast ports go dormant 30 days later. 1) Cheap goods will immediately start to dry up in LA, 15 days later in Chicago/Houston, 30 days later in New York. 2) Bonded warehouse space, CAD and MEX west coast ports boom (diverted US deliveries, waiting on tariff relief). 3) Tariff arbitrage opportunities abound Saudi agrees to build a $3B refinery in the US ... 1) Materially cheaper and more reliable if the heavy oil for blending comes from Western Canada. 2) Additional CDN pipe to BC tidewater increases Asian export capacity, AND immediately increases southbound flow to the US (for this refinery) without any new build delays or cost (as some existing fill diverts to the new pipe). 3) Highly likely there's Saudi investment in this additional CDN pipe. Not a lot of macro in any of this, other than a willingness to invest in reasonable business propositions. SD

Added more to the oil at < USD 59/bbl to further lower the cost base, and raise the dividend yield > 11%. If we closed out today we would give up positive cash carry, and suffer an opportunity loss as while oil is up, BTC is up more. However, every wheel turns ... and should BTC not hold 100K, opportunity will prevail End of the day we get our BTC back at a lower cost base; and walk away with house money (net gain on the swing trades plus accumulated cash dividends), left in oil stock with a cash yield > 11%, and a very low cost base. It's BBQ season, the dividends pay for steak and suds, and we can afford to wait. SD

Recognize that you are playing against an algorithm with a short investment horizon. Play the game presented and you will lose ... with good reason. But play the game differently .... and the algorithm becomes your friend. Lots of tariff deals being announced (distraction) and spiking markets upward .... when the west coast ports aren't offloading container ships anymore ... and New York runs out of cheap goods just in time for July 4. How do you think that really plays out? Different game SD

The great hope is that other countries come back to the table soon, and continue to honor their signatures. Of course the other view is that those other countries simply delay, let the US experience a world of pain for a time; then talk .... and tear up the agreement as soon as it no longer suits. After all, if it's OK for the US to tear things up, we can too. Wholly out of the WH control, no matter how much the WH wants to deal. SD

It isn't great .... but those forced out are now free to be as predatory as they wish to be ... with few/any constraints. It doesn't take many predators, and if many also have a clear information advantage ...... It also doesn't go well if DOGE ultimately has to hire them back 'cause of an oops .... SD

Nah ... it's just that times have moved on, and attitudes have changed. If you are female, and planning to start a family, there are very few better jobs than a government one. Shorter work week, done at the end of the day, generous benefits, and flexible work hours so that you can get the kids to/from day care. It is also much more common to take paid paternity leave to spend time with your new kid, and for fathers to be more involved in the child rearing. Different priorities, and there are many ways in beyond law enforcement or the military. It is also a very good gig to 'retire' to, after retirement age. There are few better jobs that will both fund and give you the time off to get your bucket list items crossed off the list. Administration is the same everywhere, and competition is thin for experienced people looking to do rolling gigs. Changing times, different approaches. Of course the private sector remains as open as it ever was, and power to everyone who pursues it. But the reality is that at start, it's the better option for 1/4 to 1/3 of the population at best; and maybe 1/2 will drop out along the way as child-rearing and parent-care come to bear. Most of those people at close to minimum wage, are there because of economic necessity, not 'cause they want to be. Labour calling the bluff. 'Bigger is better' has also lost its halo; been there, done that, not doing it again. Within our little craft brewery we have partners with extensive global brewing experience; we do our thing for the fun of it, were we to scale up we would have failed, as we would be back to where we were. Staff benefits bench-marked against the provincial government. It's not the same world that it used to be, I'd like to think that it's better! SD

Cut the apron strings at 18. There are all kinds of arms forces recruiting programs; 'find' yourself, focus on the trades, learn how to lead men/women, do your tour, use your exit package to go to school. The result of real life experience, and greater maturity, will get you multiples more out of the educational experience. You do you, know what you want, have a plan, expose yourself to opportunity, learn to say no. You will have 10 years (maybe) to get your designations, find your significant other, pay off your debt, and prep for the pending arrival (maybe) of the first of future kids. Your first 'grown up' job will be largely the same no matter where you are, so if you like blue-eyed blonds .... do those first jobs in Sweden, learn the language, then pick one to learn the culture from, and do Swedish immersion with Hopefully mom/dad endowed you with reasonable looks, good manners, and a sense of adventure; don't piss it away. Work for business, own the business, or trade the stock? Choose early, wherever possible compete against the best, hold the same union cards, develop strong risk management skills, always take the long term view. Work and stay within 1-2 industries, know/understand the business dynamics very well, expose yourself to risk, and stick to the game plan. Same as the ancient traders; buy/sell many cargoes along the way, build experience/contacts worldwide, grow individual ships into a fleet. You are the master, not the money. Always take the holistic view; money works for you, not the other way around, and is just one dimension - spouse, family, employees, community, reputation, etc. are equally important. Help people out, but do it quietly, and keep your name out of it. Smell the roses. Life is short, and milestones pass quickly. You owe it to yourself and family, to take a minimum 2-3 weeks every year, and vacate. There is no point to doing things well, if you are not going to enjoy it. Thereafter it's your life, don't f*** ** ** ! SD

Comes Q2 dismal reporting, and when shelves are empty of cheap Chinese product, we'll see what opportunities are for sale. Hopefully at 15-25% off SD

73 Reds. BTC is obviously just not your thing, and it is not worth your time to learn the underlying technology. There is nothing wrong in that, but there comes a time where it is just not worth the conversation, and the better path forward is to agree to disagree and move on. There is a market for this, BTC trades 24/7, and power to you. SD

We're all for limiting the political stuff to one thread. Sadly, the reality is that with the present state of the US, most North American investment decisions will implicitly have a political dimension to them; whether it be to capitalise on an opportunity, or defensively position. The other reality is that in the current circumstances, a great many have already begun to be negatively impacted. It's likely to get a lot worse before it gets better, not everyone is as flexible, and there will inevitably be a range of responses. The race to the bottom is human nature. The US is a proud nation, they are implementing change, and the view inside the US is very different from that outside the fortress. While nobody likes getting pissed on, and implementation does not appear to be going well, negative reactions should be expected. And the worse things get, the more negative. Give folks a place to vent, clamp down tightly, but also recognise that it is a part of the times, and inherent to decisions. Thereafter, may COBF continue for a great many years yet. SD

I seem to recall a different history. One where Trudeau was losing so badly to Poilieve, that after a series of blunders, the only way out for the liberals was to change their leadership. Put In more blunt terms, Poilieve forced the resignation of Trudeau, and at the same time blew away his biggest asset ... the widespread dislike of Trudeau. The conservatives should be cruising to an easy majority rule; Poilieve has instead very likely put them back into official opposition. He simply made bad choices, and no amount of lipstick on the pig is going to change that. If he doesn't win, it doesn't go well. Apr-28 we will all find out. SD

Poilievre is just bad; but got away with the Trump approach because Trudeau was so much worse, hence +25% ahead in the polls. Forcing Trudeau to resign made Poilievre the bad guy, the CPC lost their advantage, and the CPC lead fell to less than 5%. Trump did his thing, the liberals got their sh1te together, the CPC were unable to adequately pivot, and the CPC lead turned into a trailing 10%. Between the date of the English debate and election day, that trailing 10% may well get worse as/when PC in-fighting breaks out into the public (simply 'cause the more it looks like yet another opposition term, the more the knives will come out). SD

If you are a family looking to buy a starter home, 9-months out you're probably going to have better prospects. If you're an investor with a small unit, it's probably going to get worse as pre-build investors discover that they can lose more than their deposit. If you have a 2 or 3 BR you are probably just going to tread water as your condo fees are too high. SD

Whatever one might think of the elected government; if there is an annexation, there is no Canada. Canada needs its best to step up, and to grant them a strong mandate to act in our best collective interest. Six months ago the conservatives would have had a clear majority, today it is highly likely that they will not even form a minority government. To screw up that badly, a political party has to be truly gifted - hence worsening poll results should not be a surprise. Inability to manage your own shop, is not a good advertisement. While the US may be fine with change via chaos ... not so much in Canada. SD

It really comes down to who is best to deal with Trump; Mr Carney or Mr Poilievre. Mr Poilievre wants to fight the election against Justin Trudeau, whereas both his main rivals have to continually point out that Justin isn't here anymore. So far, that inability to adapt to change has cost the Conservatives a majority rule, and it very much looks like another 4 years in opposition. Should that occur, it is highly likely that Mr Poilievre will be gone by the end of summer. Today, with the resignation of Trudeau, the business wing of the liberals is doing the driving; can't distribute what you don't have, big thinking for the extraordinary times, and a lot more focus on results; the 35% change in polling being one of them. Policy wise, there is actually little daylight between the conservatives and liberals, re pipelines, etc. Change is coming in a big way; inter-provincial barriers are coming down, pipelines and infrastructure upgrades are highly likely, trade is shifting east-west, northern development is opening up (Iqualuit, Churchill), house building is going back to what it was immediately following WWII, and US involvement will be minimised in response to tariffs. Canada could do very well, and it may well be future USD trading at a discount to the petro CAD. Vision, stability, and good governance being key. Views change over time, but most businesses today are doing everything they can to re-jig supply lines to avoid anything US. Where practical, components between Canada and Mexico travelling by either sea or air to avoid tariffs. Produce imported from everywhere else EXCEPT the US where possible. Grocery isles lined with Made-in-Canada labels, otherwise the product just will not sell. Change that will subsequently take years to unwind, if it occurs at all; and all at the expense of the US. We will all have a better idea, Apr-28, end-of-day. SD

The carbon tax on fuels was removed April 1. Approx 17c/liter on gasoline and 24c/liter on diesel. For day to day driving, a saving of roughly $1,000 -$1,500 per year depending upon how much you use. Additional savings on oil/gas used for heating and cooking. https://www.canada.ca/en/department-finance/news/2025/03/removing-the-consumer-carbon-price-effective-april-1-2025.html https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/carbon-tax-ending-1.7498279 SD

Canada just had its English language political debate last night, following the French language debate the night before. The election itself is in two weeks. Prior to the election being called the conservative party was ahead of its liberal rival by 25%, immediately prior to the debates, the conservative party was 10% behind its liberal rival. The difference is the resignation of Trudeau, and Trumps tarrifs and threats of annexation. That 35% swing is historic, and a measure of just united Canada currently is. Summer airline travel to the US is down 70%, and a great many snow birds are now actively looking at wintering in either Mexico or the Caribbean versus the US. The US being felt so uncomfortable, that many now refuse to either overfly US airspace or even use a US port. Canadians are the polite ones ... SD

Your business isn't worth the time investment, so no BTC for you. Were you a bigger, or more profitable client, it would be a different conversation. SD

It just highlights one of the many differences between small and large scale finance; it's not just economies of scale, it's also mindset. Nothing wrong in that, but your choices have consequences; no different to everything else in life. SD

If you are a treasurer, and you have multiple projects requiring $X, $Y, $Z, for upwards of 36 months out, it looks quite a bit different. The bank will ask that you maintain a deposit with them, and you will ask if 50% of that deposit may be denominated in BTC. You will then negotiate a lower rate for maintaining the BTC at a minimum value (cost via BTC options versus benefit via lower interest). To keep your business the bank will oblige. The expectation is that the BTC will be worth quite a bit more in the future, and that the gain will fund a 'bonus' early debt repayment. And the more that you and other treasurers across the land similarly use BTC (adoption), the more likely you all are of success. The bigger you are the more you can scale, and the bigger the treasurers bonus. Incentivised adoption. SD

Keep in mind the timing of these flows. Capital outflows are immediate, but the surplus thing is much later ... and ONLY if the world has confidence in your nation. A time lag that could stretch into YEARS ... the more screwed up the US becomes. And if you want that surplus ... you have to be producing goods cheaper than everyone else. Not going to happen in the US unless there is extensive automation. SD

If you have a long runway, you have both the ability and need to take on risk, and really need to view BTC as a long-term asset of choice. Whatever you think of its prospects, the reality is that while you don't know what will occur, there is a strong probability that investing against BTC adoption is unlikely to go well. Ultimately, NOT INVESTING, it is a passive choice to remain long-term poor, by not evolving with the times. C'est la vie. If you have a short runway, you do NOT have both the ability to take on risk, and need to view BTC as a toxic asset. The goal is capital preservation and income generation; whatever the longer term prospects of BTC are, is irrelevant. Ultimately, it is an active choice to minimize risk until you croak. C'est la vie. Of course, the two points of view are irreconcilable, and just reflect different life stage. SD

Think of your bank account. Capital outflow (spend) doesn't depend on your debt (trade surplus); it just depends on you having a positive balance in your account (reserves) at the time of the outflow. As your reserves and debt capacity deplete, you get poorer, and the outflows accelerate as the crowd stampedes the exit. If you weren't sure on this, look at London SW real estate prices before and after the various oil crises. Same thing is coming to the US. SD

The whole tariff thing assumes that most nations strike deals with the US in timely fashion, before the US starts seriously suffering from the counter-veiling tariffs. But it seriously blows up if nations drag their feet, or reduce their USD reserves on diminished confidence in US leadership. Canada is as united as it currently is, and doing things that just weren't possible (inter-provincial trade barriers, pipelines, etc.) before, because of Trumps threats; timely deal making is counter productive. Capital is leaving the US (higher bond yields, lower USD), and will accelerate as counter-veiling impacts progressively bite further; timely deal making is counter productive to containing Trump. Drink the cool-aid .... everything works out, and Trump is better than Jesus. Drink weak beer ... and it looks like the US could well devolve into widespread protests, comes this Fall and Winter; not good for markets, and nobody really wants a repeat of the CSN protest song 'Ohio'. Hard to see if you live inside the US petri dish, but a lot more obvious if you have the benefit of living outside of the US. Obviously we wish the US the best of luck, but we're not confident, and there is a need for prudence. SD