SharperDingaan

Maybe the US has so many automatic weapons 'cause they can't shoot strait Every cop show ... lots of bullets flying everywhere, few actually hitting the target. Whereas in an Israel, etc where every 18 year old is drafted and walking the streets with an Usi ... there's very little that is similar. Maybe 'cause they CAN shoot straight, and don't miss when someone goes nuts SD

As a fellow poster who also has similar high weights on occasion .... just make sure that you systematically take dollars off the table. If it blows up tomorrow, you both get to live another day and ideally keep most of what you have made to date. Congratulations. SD

The reality is that most trade should flow from north to south, and that while Canada will always be the very junior partner subject to US whims, it is also a sovereign between Alaska and mainland USA. A defensive dome over the US also means a dome over Canada, the drones/missiles already falling in Canada vs the US, and having to put up with raised elbows from a younger brother! Happy to sell to the US, but at world price less transport cost, and only what we have left over, after selling to everyone else. Western, northern, and eastern tidewater trade flows; removal of inter-provincial trade barriers, and transit on Canadian vs US rail wherever possible. US companies funding CAD petrodollar infrastructure investment as a hedge against USD devaluation; to get more southbound goods ... invest in Canada It is also 2025, not last century. To make NA trade really flow, requires coordinated industrial policy, not the laissez-faire < 2000 leadership of the auto-pact and CUSMA; each were good solutions for the times, but the times move on. Orange Boy acting both as a change agent, and an example of what can go wrong in the present scheme of things. While industrial policy is a longstanding 'normal' practice in the many nationed Europe, NA is economically still very 'young' ... and catching up; as most nations aren't good with change, periodic rupture should not be unexpected. SD

Transactional is not that bad a thing; you can do it yourselves however you'd like, or you can collectively pay in 5% of your GNP for the US to primarily do it for you, via cash or compatible weaponry/access in lieu. If you think you can do it better/cheaper ... go ahead. Same as in all trade, you contribute what you have an advantage at, and buy the rest; NATO as it was originally envisaged back in the day. Collectively buy enough of your own production, and you also have diversification via a viable single-source alternative. Not really possible without a transactional approach. SD

Sadly, peak Trump has pretty much already occurred. An Orange Boy screw up used to be good for 2,000 points on the Dow ... now? maybe it is 600 at best, on a good day Whatever one's view, 'we the people' elected him, and with no guard rails; one can disagree with the man, or just make use of the disruption he creates. The reality was that most people believed the US needed a thorough shake up, and few offered to do it better than Orange Boy. As always, the ever reliable restraints are stupidity and incompetence ... new boss, new bells & whistles .. but really? ... same as the old boss Without Orange Boy, would NATO/EU be where it is today, and within 1 year? Probably not. As a result of Orange Boy, Is NATO/EU more resilient today than it was a year ago? Probably yes. Is the illegal drug trade better dealt with via interceptions at the border? or regime change/assassination in the major source countries? Every dictator needs cash flow .... take it away, let the markets act, and the world is a safer place. Make some drugs legal ... and it helps with draining that cash flow. Nobody likes change, and nobody likes it in your face. Many might argue that much of the Trump derangement syndrome is actually adverse reaction to change. They took my grant money away! they garnisheed my wages to pay my student loan! what the hell is this! All pendulums swing, and not a bad thing. Don't break his fingers SD

IPO.T ..... it even pays you a healthy dividend while you wait SD

Merry Xmas! and the best of the season to all. SD

Lots of ways to invest, but whatever the choice …. it has to fit the investors disposition. An everchanging construct as circumstance, expertise, experience, risk tolerance, and age changes over time. Rich or poor. Realised or not, everyone made a decision as to be active or passive. The active often being those from the business world; the passive being those with little/no interest, best served via a generic index fund. Many from the business world, will be experienced in corporate finance capital allocation, and the discounting of higher-risk projects at 25%+. The minimum acceptable NPV of zero, results in a return well above the FFH CAGR, and collectively … that's a lot of projects. Active simply means capital allocation to a security likely to return more than your threshold ROE, or CAGR if the holding period will be longer than 1 year. Typically, some kind of positive change is expected; higher sales volumes/prices, lower costs, M&A, share buyback, business climate, etc. Sell once you have your return, reinvest in the next project/security, and move on. Everyday corporate finance. However, nothing prevents a sale and repurchase in response to changes in the business climate; commodity price changed 15%+, Trump tweeted disruption, etc. We just call it ‘trading’, if it occurs within a short period or there was a directional anticipation of disruption. If it works out, that chosen security is generating a CAGR of 25%+. If intra-year volatility also enabled a 15% gain on its sale and repurchase, this year’s return is 40%. Even if you had a 15% loss upon repurchase, you are still up 10%. May Orange Boy never break his fingers! and may the markets always be both volatile and liquid! On any given day, an active manager could blow up; but when the initial capital has long since been returned, it is no different to the return on a typical small business. The small business will sell for next to nothing, and the benefit is the profit/paid employment earned that year; post blow up the active managers shares are worth little, and the benefit is the dividends/gains paid out that year. It’s not WEB, FFH, or index investing … so one cannot benchmark against them. The benchmark is the threshold CAGR chosen (25%) … with anything above/below that as alpha paid to yourself. Not what the industry chooses to promote! Merry Xmas SD

May the taxman take your money every 2 weeks, and may you settle up once/year. Play for all the tamales, and may the better thief win ..... appeals at sooo many levels but sadly, not the CPA way... Derivative strip, straddle, and tripod strategies are instant recall, and much better learnt .. when you learn them in the right setting. An afternoon, and a few rounds of beer well spent ... that quickly repaid itself many times over! SD

Long time ago, when doing tax for my CPA, a favourite application was the minimisation of capital gains tax by very aggressively selling everything that would generate a tax loss seven weeks before year-end, so that it could be bought back >21 business days later, and in the last 3 weeks of trading before year end. It meant that you had the maximum tax loss carry forward every year, and that Revenue Canada would refund you, if you were doing WEB's 'buy and hold' forever. You can still do this today, along with the Smith Manoeuvre, and it will save you a fortune Needless to say, the instructor was a big-4 tax partner, and took an exceedingly dim view ... when I came in at the top of his class. Ultimately, the bastard refused to hire me for a tax internship, but we remained friends for years; learnt advanced o/g futures and derivatives from one of his people at a strip club. SD

Looks much better than it actually is, as there is a need to continually take gains off the table (remain ahead and alive if/when we blow up), and that big down year can really wreck your short term CAGR Lifetime to date CAGR is finally on par with that of FFH; but our rolling 10yr CAGR is much higher, as we are comfortable with higher risk, and do not have public shareholders. Still schlepping .... but we do enjoy rough-housing in an 'old school' market! SD

All that you need is a static 25% holding in something like a CJ warrant, that becomes a 3-4 bagger within 2 yrs. If nothing else happened ... today's $100 becomes $132.5 (25x3.5 +75x1 = 132.5), 2 yr CAGR is 15%. Of course .... if the other 75% in concentrated positions is dong something similar .... that CAGR is a lot higher SD

+1. We used to hold FFH as well, and take a similar approach .... buying quality and holding for the turn(s); CAGRs a lot higher than FFH, but we also have more volatility as we take more risk. Periodically revisit FFH around dividend time For passive, long term investors, FFH is both a great place to be and learn the craft. But, If/when you opt for a more active approach, you really need to leave the mother ship. Nothing wrong in that, and really just a bow to the masters. SD

Our expertise is in the WCSB, not the off shore; but even with just a quick once over .... walk away. Worthless promises. $100, 10 yrs out, discounted at 25%/yr is $10.74. But over those 10 yrs ... to maintain the leases the company will need to dilute, and dilute again; today's 500M shares becoming 2,000M; that $10.74 becoming $2.68 split over today's 500M shares. All hat, no cattle. Smell. A venture exchange company couldn't meet the TSX listing requirements, and is low quality. It would appear that this one is of such low quality that it couldn't even maintain its Canadian listing, hence the new AIM listing starting Jan 2026. Not really surprising as their leases are in some of the most corrupt places in the world, the Uruguay leases are disputed, and this company very much looks like an influencer monetising their influence via a share listing. Liquidity. One would need at least 150,000 shares to make it worthwhile, and it would be near impossible to exit the position; without paying a deep discount. At best, a major might make an offer for the entire company, but they would pay no more than 50% of the NAV (write-offs, allowance for wind-up costs, etc), and do so primarily to 'own' the influencer. Today's 45c/share is the high, it's really worth maybe 23c at best. Sharecount. 500M+ shares screams either a 10:1 share consolidation, or a privatisation and relisting under a new ticker. The typical experience for a junior company, immediately post cost consolidation, is a 30-40% drop in the share price. Sell today in quantity, and close out at < 30c as soon as it moves to the AIM market; you and the stock promoters controlling the box, rushing to the door. Comparables. There are a lot of low cost, higher quality alternatives on the TSX, that would pay back a lot more, and a lot sooner than this would. There is no reason for retail to own this; even a Helios (former Fairfax Africa) would balk at it. SD

We have been prototyping a different approach to investing, for use once I have 'retired'; we refer to it as 'context' investing, have built a few tools to go with it, but will not share them for another decade or so. It is essentially the common sense 'sniff test' applied to investment narratives, and is especially effective in today's connected world; what used to be the tail ends of both technical and fundamental analysis, expanded into its own field of analysis. Key to everything is ability to think for yourself, apply relevant techniques, and comfortably give up control; ... essential skills for the people manager in every company, as you only have two hands, and a limited number of hours per day. Hard for the control freak ... until you have kids The takeaway is trust but verify, if the source passes the ongoing sniff tests, you can place some reliance on the analysis. No different to managing employees, but the ultimate responsibility is the managers. Most managers are not good at it, as are most investors! SD

One of the things you might want to consider ..... Proceeds from the sales averaged down into your highest conviction ticker that is underwater. Thereafter, let the ticker price rise 10-15%, sell the additional shares, and repeat on the next ticker. Your cost bases will fall, and your incremental risk will be minimal while you are waiting for ticker prices to rise ... as you are already in something that you wanted more of . Best in a tax free or tax deferred account, to minimise the tax impact. Works in a taxable account as well, but a different approach, best addressed in the new year SD

Your group did well, but you need to compare yourself to a relevant benchmark ... the TSX 2025 YTD return is 29.09%. The real value of COBF will be revealed when you compare your return to the TSX return in a down year https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/stock-market SD

The unwritten law thing levels the playing field, and keeps the focus on the discussion at hand. Lot of portfolio's are 20+ names; at most maybe 5,000-8,000 shares in any one ticker? That concentrated portfolio may well be a minimum 15,000-50,000 shares in any of the fewer tickers, with the long standing names having sizes in the low-mid six-digits. Scale introduces it's own issues .. so remove the bias, by keeping it out entirely. Lot of folks are learning &/or retired; a 100K/yr in income in meaningful. Whereas, on that $1.5M portfolio, 100K/yr of dividends is a 6.7% cash yield and largely inevitable; if you didn't take it out, and there was zero further change (highly unlikely), the portfolio would essentially double by itself every decade (72/6.7). Again, scale introducing it's own issues .. so remove the bias, by keeping it to % return only. Bigger isn't better, particularly with higher risk portfolios where there is a risk management need to systematically take $ off the table. Lot of ways it could be done, but magnitude introduces it's own issues .. so remove the bias, by keeping it to just a repatriation disclosure. Big difference between the investment professionals, and those simply learning the craft; similar thing in the geographic locations, and backgrounds of posters on this board. As many have discovered it's a lonely profession, there is benefit to the diversity, and it is nice to be able to privately share your successes. Lot of very experienced professionals generously share their time here, and they do so because COBF is not the 'normal' investment board. Most people will generously respond to a PM request, just recognise that they may have work/professional restrictions. SD

Tax free account research (TFSA) indicate that it's often simply to avoid paying the additional commissions [that $30 over 3 swing trades on a really bad day]. It shows up in oversized bids in illiquid stocks as well, when it would be cheaper to simply do 2-3 smaller bids at lower prices. SD

CJ, IPO, OBE, NVO, UBS, BTC_ETF, Treasuries, and a lot of swing trades. If it goes our way, a material re-balancing into CAD infrastructure at the end of 2026/27/28. Three themes; volatility opportunities, growing dividends, and diversification. Waiting on press releases of the big blowing up. SD

Quite agree! ... but not all the costs/benefits of home ownership are financial, as your significant other will quickly remind you; happy wife, happy life There's also the reality that if you'd like to start a family ... a modest nest is a lot more attractive that hot wheels; if you have hair growing out your nose ... SD

Young enough to have had the Zimbabwe experience. If you could leave, you left as soon as possible to start life again elsewhere; all investment goes into your head, and expertise in working the system. If you could not leave, you spent everything you had on food, as soon as you got it. Where possible, partnerships with farmers to both grow livestock & vegetables for the table, under armed protection. ZWD 1M notes in the monopoly set; ultimately worth more as a framed collage to put on your wall. Corruption, bribery, & expropriation the norm. Your best investment is in smuggling expertise; financial over the physical, commodities over the usual trade goods. Your opponent is the central bank, & its associated apparatus. Escape, and you will both land on your feet anywhere, and be very hard to kill. Thereafter, the hardest part will be learning how to do things the 'normal' way in your new home ...utter 'ugh' at times! With a foreign income, you can live like a king in these environments, for a ridiculously cheap cost. But you live in a gilded cage, and need a fool proof escape route as security; obviously not for everyone, and subject to material self selection. Quite a few who escape, will work/retire in a EU/NA country, earn the foreign pension, then temporarily move back for the first decade or so of retirement ... a choice to either live frugally in the EU/NA, or temporarily live a lot better in XYZ nation, while also having the funds/ability to travel around while there, while you still have the ability and energy. The live in a coastal South African city, enjoy the nearby ocean/abundant seafood, and go on an annual land (Botswana/SWA/SA) or sea (Mozambique channel to either a Dar-es-Salaam/Mombasa or Madagascar) safari ... for 2-4 months/year. Compared ..... to wintering in a Colorado/Arizona or Florida. Not that unusual for anyone who comes from the 2nd/3rd world, but it's limited to only those who were able to leave, and those who do. Obviously .... completely alien if you grew up in the EU/NA, and typically follow. SD

The store of value thing misses a lot ... Fully paid off nice house & furnishings, versus a BTC/Gold holding, which is better? Your spouse will tell you it's the house, 'cause you can enjoy it everyday. Two houses (on different continents), if you are concerned around potential expropriation! More wealth than you could use in your remaining lifetime; stored as a BTC/Gold holding, which is better? Your spouse will tell you it's not your problem, 'cause you're dead! Give it away, with no strings attached - should the heirs receive anything, they're better off! Need to leave town permanently, and quick; wealth stored as a BTC/Gold holding, which is better? Your spouse will tell you its gold coin, but BTC actually works better. Should there be an unexpected swimming event ... BTC could save your life! .... so how is it, that these very practical considerations, seldom enter the discussion Live and free, no matter what! SD

Sea temp is 18-19 Celsius; 6 degrees higher in the summer. To Europeans the island itself is pretty much the same as a east coast Canadian going down to the Carribean for winter break .. but less crowded. SD

Doing two weeks of hiking in Madeira during Feb/March, as part of a multi-year Africa travel project; travelling to/from via a stop over in Lisbon. Way more time than really required, but as I'm now retired ... swimming in the mid atlantic gulf stream every other day, seems like a pretty good gig! SD