Dinar

SD, I heard this joke for the first time almost 40 years ago, when I was a little boy and the General Secretaries of the Communist party of the USSR were dying every couple of years.

Spek, i remember reading NYT during the conflict. Somehow it is ok for Serbs to be ruled by Muslims and Croats who have murdered them over the years but not the other way around? Kosovo given to Albanians and Serbs expelled, fair? I am not justifying Russian invasion but it is hypocritical to hit Serbs and not Bosnians or Croats, condemn Russia but not when US & France bomb Libya to kill Quaddafi in the last decade or US invasion of Iraq in 2003. UK & Poland may have forgotten UPA (Bandera) but Serbs remember who helped them against Turks

You are not being fair. When Bosnians and Croats wanted to secede from Yugoslavia, Serbs in Bosnia and Croatia wanted to secede from Bosnia and Croatia. Given the history of Muslim genocide of Christians, and Croatian atrocities in WWII, completely understandable. Why were Bosnians and Croats allowed to secede from Yugoslavia but Serbs are not? Had Bosnians and Croats allowed Serbs to secede - giving Serbs the same self-determination rights that the Croats & Bosnians with Western help wanted to get, there is a very good possibility that the civil war in Yugoslavia would not have happened.

Absolutely. In the video by the way, all the interviews are in Russian, not Ukranian! And yes, I love Kurosawa, Rashomon is fantastic, albeit not in the samurai theme.

You should listen to Dollar General's earnings call. If I am not mistaken, the 40% that you refer to is their core consumer. If I am not mistaken, they are optimistic on the health of their customer. From anecdotal evidence, there are massive wage increases for unskilled labor and craftsmen, and as much overtime as they want. So may be 5% wage increases for white collar programmers at Moody's or Google but 20%+ for store clerks, cashiers, et all. Granted, my anecdotal evidence is from NY metropolitan area + Boston + Maui + Florida.

Wow, thank you, I did not realize that it was that bad.

I am sorry, but where are you getting the 60 Trillon unfunded obligation for Social Security and $103 Trillion for Medicare? That seems high to me, given the trust funds? Also, should you not adjust Social Security deficit for the fact that pay-outs will be taxed?

SD, thank you very much, I really appreciate it. I am long Cenovus, and have been doing the work on OBE. I used to own London real estate via Daejan, but that got taken private at a very low valuation.

SD, I am admittedly a tourist in oil/gas. May be I missed it, but is there any reason why you are not long Canadian Natural? Seems like a 25bn+ CAD fcf per annum on CAD 100bn EV? or Suncor?

Thanks for the good wishes. I have owned KSU for a while and owned it when it was bought out so I am somewhat familiar with the company, probably not to the extent that you are. I do appreciate the fact that you brought up the exclusivity end and concession expiration, it is easy to forget about this.

You could have said the same thing about MSFT & GOOG 3, 5, 10 and 15 years ago, and they worked out fine. Sometimes the best bargains are hiding in plain sight rather than being obscure names on the other side of the world. NFM has four stores, none in my area, but I appreciate the heads up and will take a look at their pricing. I would greatly appreciate it if you could explain to me which of the names that I have suggested are borderline laughable and why in your opinion. Why do I like CP here? I am assuming that the merger goes through. I think that the synergies that they outlined are on the low side, I think that KSU can be run much more efficiently. I think the existing CP business can do CAD 4.25bn in EBIT in 2023, and real EBIT (adjusting for the fact that maintenance cap ex exceeds D&A) = CAD 3.55bn. You may also want to penalize them for pension income. I think that the existing KSU business can do USD 1.2bn in 2023 on an EBITDA - maintenance cap ex basis or CAD 1.5bn. I am assuming CAD 2bn in synergies, for a total = CAD 7bn in unlevered pre-tax free cash flow in 2023. Debt = CAD 25bn on 12/31/2021. S/o = 935MM. So, interest = CAD 1bn, pre-tax free cash flow = CAD 6bn and after-tax = CAD 4.5bn in 2023 or 4.8 CAD per share. Stock is at 100 CAD. So a 4.8% fully taxed free cash flow yield, and you get the following tailwinds: 1) running KSU much more efficiently; 2) getting OR down to 50% at existing CP; 3) rebound in North American industrial production driven by both on-shoring, and recovery in automobile manufacturing; 4) continuing to take share from truck; 5) price increases above inflation. If you get KSU from 67% OR to 50% OR, that's USD 600MM more in EBIT in 2023 or CAD 569MM post tax assuming t = 25%, which works out to 0.6 CAD per share getting your fcf yield to 5.4%. If existing CP goes to 50 OR (which it can thanks to technology driven cost cuts, et all), that boosts EBIT by CAD 700MM or CAD 531MM post tax or 0.57 CAD per share, and gets you to 6% fcf yield. This is why I like it. If you think that I am wrong, I gladly welcome your criticism.

Two thousand twenty five.

IFF has no growth. If you want to fish in those waters, than Symrise, Givaudan, Robertet and CHR Hansen are much better.

Engines are razor/razor blade business, with extremely high barriers to entry. The company is trading at a p/e = 10x 2025 EPS, and will probably grow revenues over time at inflation+ 2-4% and expand margins on top of that. Returns on capital are extremely high. Revenue growth will be driven by increase in the global air traffic, as well as spare parts becoming an increasing proportion of revenue.

I am long and would buy the following: L'Oreal Heineken Holdings Christian Dior (Holding company for LVMH) AON Ashtead Canadian Pacific Safran Floor & Decor Philip Morris International New England Realty Alphabet & Microsoft (I saw that you have it) Not sure that I agree on BAC, CHTR & UNP.

I was born in the USSR and lived there for 13 years. If you equate the US to North Korea, then I do not think we have anything to talk about. If Putin believes that you are dead are you dead? Your argument makes no sense.

You may be confusing reality and perception. Perhaps President Putin thought that Ukraine joining NATO was an existential threat, but NATO neither is nor was ever an existential threat to Russia or the USSR before that. After all, had the west not exported grain to the former USSR, the country would have starved.

I presume you have a representative that is assigned to your account? I would contact him/her and ask for a lower rate. Also, yes, if true, say that I would have x if rates were y

I have 0.95% and have had it for a couple of years, but I expect it to go up as fed increases rates. The margin rates at Schwab varies based on the value of the account to them which in turn is a function of: a) assets b) margin debt c) commissions - if you make a lot of foreign or option trades

Read up on the 1948 war and read up on 1967 war. Arab armies attacked in 1948 and were planning to attack in 1967. Link that you posted has nothing to do with the discussion.

Really? You should read it on the 1967 war. Actually, Arab armies massed on Israeli borders and the Suez Canal was closed to Israeli shipping. Nasser was promising to toss Jews into the sea. You are entitled to your opinion, not to invent facts.

If you do not mind my asking, why and what maturity? Thank you.

Lenin got power because the Czar was a spineless piece of shit who abdicated in February of 1917, and Kerensky was a spineless piece of shit who would not let general Kornilov shoot communists on sight. Read Kerensky interviews and autobiography.

Agree with everything that you are saying except for Russians will not long tolerate the economic depression that is unfolding. USSR tolerated Stalin - who murdered 10-25% of the population, and jailed another 5-10%? People were literally starving to death thanks to his policies and yet nobody rebelled. I wish you were right though!

The government's explanation will be really simple: The world hates Russia and Russian people, and this is why the West is doing it. After all, look at what the US did to: Serbia, Libya, Iraq, et all, and there were no sanctions. There is a double standard, you see. There was an old joke when I was little: an American President says to Brezhnev, your people are starving; the response is: in the US blacks are discriminated against. I lived in the USSR for a dozen years, trust me, you can explain anything and everything. Also, it does not really matter if the people believe it or not, until they rise up in an armed revolt, nothing will change. This is the wrong forum, but sadly in the US today and western world, there is tremendous censorship of unpopular ideas, or at least ideas that are not in vogue with the left wing of the Democratic party. There was always censorship in Russia/USSR but to see this in the US scares me. I am an American citizen who lives here, and this is the only citizenship that I have, and I am beginning to see parallels to my childhood. People are afraid of expressing opinions, even opinions that were expressed by President Clinton twenty years ago. We should take our cue from Elon Musk who refuses to censor unpopular opinions (even the ones that represent the view of the Russian government and make me want to vomit.) Once we lose the freedom of expression, what is to stop us from becoming the next Russia or China?