Dinar

For whatever it is worth, I spoke with a friend today. His wife owns a small property portfolio in Hoboken & Jersey city, around 100 apartments (she buys brownstones with his money, restores them and rents them out.) He said that they are fully rented (granted his wife is really good - went through Covid with essentially no vacancies and rent reductions), any apartment that they put on the market gets rented in days, not weeks, and rents are up 20-25% vs pre-pandemic levels. So may be some people are fleeing NYC but ending up in Jersey city.

The company needs an activist. I do not understand why corporate overhead is $40MM per annum, take a look at their website - a bunch of people who in my opinion should not be there. Also, they need to start buying back stock hand over fist, no way you can buy these assets at 5.5% cap rate in the private market, at 5.5% cap rate this is a $24 stock

Bought more VRE - 8% cap rate here unless I screwed up my math.

I agree with you that we need a well thought out immigration policy, but unlikely to get it. I forgot to mention Columbia doubling income taxes on top earners - more demand for Miami/Manhattan real estate.

What we need to keep in mind is that millions of people are and have poured over the Southern border, hundreds of thousands if not a million or two have and will come from Ukraine/Russia, and hundreds of thousands will come from China and India as immigration resumes and quite a few people in China are not happy with Covid-19 policies. Where will these 3-5 million people (say 500K-1.5MM households) live? This will put upward pressure on rental and ownership markets at all levers - both low income and high income.

You have forgotten numerous terrorist acts committed by Iranians, as well as its support for Al-Queda, and Hezbollah's attacks on US interests.

Very hard to do, and yes, my biggest mistakes were undersizing massive winners

I beg to differ. I think that inflation is in the rear view mirror. The inflation in goods - used car prices, etc is about to flatline and may be go in reverse. I am looking for a new car, leases do not seem more expensive than they were ten months ago despite higher interest rates. I think that supply of labor in US is going up sharply (massive swing from positive to negative wealth effect, millions pouring over the Southern border, Ukrainian and Russian refugees, people fed up with President Xi), meanwhile demand for labor is declining sharply - corporates are firing, construction/real estate is firing. So hard to see labor inflation. As for commodities, what implication does shrinking Chinese population and end of Chinese construction boom have on demand for cement, iron ore, lumber and oil?

Sorry, I listened to it, and I don't get it. May be it is not the whole thing, but I did not get the humor. What am I missing? I know who Solovyov is and I speak Russian fluently, but still....

@Vikingand @Spekulatius. How fast above inflation do you think Levi can grow on the top line? Thank you.

I am going to vote for him. Not because I am a fan, but to send a message. I think that AIV needs to drastically cut SG&A. I am also not sure that they are any good at real estate development, and do not want them to learn on my dime.

AIV is having a contested proxy.

Greg, what's the thesis? Thank you

The company diluted shareholders at the bottom in 2009, so a hard pass for me.

Not a small company, but I bought Spirax Sarco

Spirax Sarco PLC -

The moment the West stops supplying weapons and money, Ukraine loses the war, so the West has leverage.

Ukraine would have lost without Western support, and given the sacrifices already made by the West - tens of billions in aid, refugees, skyrocketing nat gas prices, collapsing industry caused by higher nat gas prices, Ukraine asking for hundreds of billions of dollars in aid to rebuilt, the West certainly ought to have a very important seat at the table. But there has to be an off-ramp. The has to be a face saving way for Putin to exit in order to have a chance to avoid tens of thousands of more deaths.

I would not give Ukraine nukes. Ukraine is an insanely corrupt country, what makes you think they will not sell them to....

I think if you adjust for growth, PM is much cheaper than BTI. BTI I think is losing volumes at 3% per annum, while PM is growing at 2%+. In addition, one gets a free option on IQOOS in the US.

Bought Veris Residential (VRE), thank you Gregmal for the suggestion.

Spek, why do you like BTI? I used to own it, sold post results in February, and every time I look at it, I cannot get there, particularly vs PM & SWMA

Yes, I think that it is quite cheap. Their debt is up as the company has been aggressively growing fleet. Recessions are generally a big negative for them but here is why I think it will be less of an issue: a) Smaller competitors have been going out of business since they cannot get equipment/skilled labor b) There are significant economies of scale - if you double the number of locations, you do not need to double the number of units or skilled mechanics c) The return of manufacturing to America, the semiconductor plant building boom in the US, the Biden infrastructure plan all bode very well for demand. d) I do not think that home construction will decline that much, since we still need homes to be built. What's priced in? The stock is selling at USD 42 per share, while it should earn $3.50-$3.70 this fiscal year (ends 04/30/2023.) You have to reduce EPS by 4% to account for gains of sale of equipment so call it $3.50 in EPS. Assuming a real discount rate = 6% (so nominal = inflation + 6%), this assumes 30% drop in profitability and zero growth on a going forward basis in real terms. The company claimed that could (in real terms) more than double and almost triple in size in one of their presentations. Given returns on marginal capital, this growth opportunity, that you get for free, is quite valuable.

Ashtead PLC - owner of Sunbelt rentals.

Bought MSFT yesterday into the close at $239-$240.