Dinar

I bought Fuso Chemical - thank you @Spekulatius, yesterday evening.

@changegonnacome, I agree with you, except for one thing: it's not perseverance, it's the West's unwilligness to do what has been done since time immemorial - violence and population transfers. It was easy to win the Afghan war, just kill them all! (For the record, I am not advocating for the US to have done it, but it should have been killing 10,000 Afghans a day until Taliban handed over Bin Laden & Co!). Similarly in Gaza/Judea and Samaria (West Bank technically includes Israel pre-1967 borders)/Lebanon, just transfer the populations to Syria, and end the problem. This was done time immemorial, and in the 20th century Turks massacred millions of Greeks and Armenians and kicked them out of lands that they lived on for at least 3,000 years. Germans were kicked out of Sudetenland, and Koenisberg, etc... The problem is not the unwillingness to fight, the problem is not willing to be sufficiently brutal to ensure victory.

@Spekulatiushttps://fusokk.co.jp/eng/wp/wp-content/themes/fuso/images/ir/fusovision2025.pdf Spek, when they talk in this presentation about FY 2025, do they actually mean FY 2025 or calendar 2025? Thank you. The company raised guidance in that presentation to JPY 85bn in revenues and 19bn JPY in operating income, which is 18% higher than their today's forecast for FY 2025?

We will have to agree to disagree. I fail to see you bringing in people with 3rd grade education or 60 year olds is beneficial to the country or low skilled at $40K to replace American software engineers. As for Medicaid, the reason for labor shortages is that it does NOT pay to work in low wage occupations due to very generous social welfare - Medicaid, food stamps, free housing, et all. Remove welfare, and see worker shortages disappear. NYC welfare rolls plummeted from 1MM to 400K in early 1990s after welfare reform and Giuliani's workfare for welfare recipients.

So if we have consistent immigration at say 1% of the US population per annum, we are going to have higher wages and lower housing costs? Is that your argument? As for complaint for shortage of workers - look at social support - 37% of NY State is on Medicaid, no incentive to work. Remove the dole, and magically workers will materialize.

Could be the carrot and the stick approach. If Moscow does not settle, Ukraine (with Western weapons) can apply more pressure + I think Trump/Vance/Rubio floated additional sanctions.

Are you saying that if the labor supply increases, there is no impact on wages? If population grows then there is no impact on housing costs?

We have never had such massive immigration in the past 100 years. You don't need a PhD in economics to realize that more people means lower wages and higher housing costs. Good for the wealthy, bad for the working and middle classes. Schools have never been so bad with such ridiculously lower standards, requiring parents to spend money on tutoring so their kids could get the same education as they themselves received in public schools.

@Spekulatius, how do you think Fuso's business will look in 10 years? Revenues, profits? What do you think of management and capital allocation? Thank you.

Yes, if you can find a good growth business, buy it in size and own for decades.

Dude, how do you find the time? I own 20 and I spend 40-50 hours a week on investing.

No, that's not the implication. Probably impractical for a 30 year old with three kids, should be doable for most thrifty people in their 60s, barring a catastrophic illness or if they are very generous in helping others. Also very much depends on the lifestyle. I know people who live in my neighborhood with 4 kids who spend $100K per year, and people with four kids who spend a million a year. (The difference is private school - $260K a year for 4 kids, $4K two bedroom 5th floor walk up vs $25K a month grand 4 bedroom apt, vacations, take-out & restaurants vs cooking at home, two nannies vs none, etc...) @Santayana, interest income can also be cut unless you are buying treasuries in nominal terms, and in real terms in the case of treasuries. If you are long short-term treasuries, you run the risk that interest rates decline and so will your interest income. If you are long long term treasuries, and then 2020-2022 inflation comes around, that's surely is a cut in interest income, albeit real and not nominal. I am not against buying insurance (in this case having a cash cushion), my point is you cannot hedge against everything, so where do you draw the line?

Actually, it all depends on how stable your cash flow is, and how large it is compared to how much you spend per annum. If someone has say enough dividend income per year after tax to pay for all of one's yearly expenses, then why would you want to have 2-3 years in cash reserves?

He is quite old. I saw him at the opera about a year ago, and he seemed very old. I think he has retired a decade or go or may be even earlier, and was just coming to the office the way retired professors do. I think Matthew has been running the show way before Covid.

Why can't you just have a well trained conventional force? In 1967 and 1973, Israel defeated armies of countries that had 10x the population. The problem is that most European countries, excluding Poland, don't have a real standing army beyond 10-50K men. If Israel is capable of fielding 500K army on a population of 7-10MM (Jews+Druze+Bedouins), then why couldn't Ukraine field two million on a 40MM population?