Dinar

I have a while ago, I did not like it. I do not know European assets well enough (for Heidelberg the value of the US assets = 125% of EV + you get the rest for free. Assuming the rest is worth a 16x net income, the stock is a two and a half bagger) and I hate dilution and lack of insider ownership. Heidelberg benefits from a 25% shareholder, big enough to care, not big enough to do something stupid and not be overturned.

I bought quite a bit of Heidelberg Materials, made it a 4.5% position

According to analysts' forecasts, which I think are too low, the stock is trading at a 6.9% free cash flow yield on 2028 numbers. For a business that should be able to raise price ahead of inflation and grow volumes, that is way too low. Every year that the company hikes price at inflation + 0.5%, it's EBIT grows at inflation + 1%, and free cash flow by around inflation + 1.2-1.3%. Every time volumes go up by 1%, EBIT should grow by roughly 1.4-1.7%, given that incremental volumes come with very high EBIT margins, closer to 70%. Every time EBIT grows by 1.4-1.7%, free cash flow to the equity grows by around 2%. So if you assume that pricing = inflation + 0.5% per annum, and volume growth = 0.5% per annum, starting in 2029, then you have EBIT growing at inflation + 1.7%, and free cash flow at inflation + 2%+ per annum. So assuming analysts' forecasts for 2028 are correct, and the company can grow volumes at 0.5% per annum, and pricing at inflation + 0.5% per annum, your forward rate of return should be inflation + 8.6% per annum. In my opinion, the company will meaningfully outperform analysts' forecasts, and the stock is probably trading at a 9%-9.5%+ free cash flow yield to the equity on 2029 numbers, and will probably grow free cash flow after that at inflation + 2-3% per annum. You are also getting potential environmental tailwinds for free, and upside from increase in highway taxes.

I think what they did, is they bought futures on the S&P and then used bond expertise to add alpha (outperform cash.)

A better action would be the following: a) End federal student loan guarantees that cost taxpayers tens to hundreds of billions per annum b) Tax endowment earnings c) End tax free status of bonds issued by universities and municipalities in general d) End all federal support for universities, including for research - let them apply to a myriad of foundations such as Gates, Musk, et all e) Tax benefits given to university employees such as subsidized housing (3 bedroom in Greenwich Village for $3K per month vs $15K monthly rent) and free tuition for their kids.

No, what Nazis & Mao & Stalin did was genocide. On another note, to your point, Mongols were truly benevolent conquerors, provided you surrendered rather than fought.

You claim that Arabs/Africans/Muslim don't achieve as much as the Jews due to their environment. I offered you to test your theory: achievement of both ethnic groups in Europe today. Go ahead and test your theory, see what the results will be. I haven't seen one article about terrorist attack committed by a Jew in Europe in the last thirty years, while see how many actual and attempted terror attacks have been by Muslims.

Muslim terrorists killed over 3000 people on 09/11/2001 alone, now what is the total number of people killed in mass shootings in the US in the last 25 years? Why have Chinese managed to build Singapore, Japanese - Japan, Koreans - South Korea, India is booming, while what Arab/African country is booming? Why are millions of people fleeing Arab/Moslem/African world? What happened to Zimbabwe and South Africa after end of white rule? What are the educational & professional achievements of Muslim/African/Arab immigrants in Western Europe vs Jews from the Arab countries?

Well, you don't have to like it, but the fact is that Jews are 25% of the world's Nobel prize laureates while accounting for 0.2% of the world's population, while the entire Islamic world is 30% of the world's population and 0.5% of the world Nobel laureates and 80% of the world's terrorists. Similarly, whether due to culture or ethnicity, Chinese/Koreans/Japanese succeed everywhere, Africans and Arabs don't.

Charlie, off-topic, but did you see several insiders buying stock in your favorite - NSC?

I spent five years in NYC public schools, and I have two kids in NYC public schools currently. I speak like a taxpayer, you speak like someone who does not give a damn about government efficiency or effective use of tax dollars.

This does not include millions of local government employees and consultants. I can tell you that NYC alone employs thousands of school crossing guards and thousands of school bus drivers via outside companies. These jobs add zero value.

@Luke, in the US we have a tremendous shortage of doctors and construction workers for instance, I am sure there are other professions which are starved for labor. Rather than become government employees that slow down the economy, why can't these people actually contribute to economic growth by becoming doctors, plumbers, or other professionals in short supply?

CP, JOE, MSGE

You make accusations, when challenged you change the subject. You claimed that Trump's proposals are more inflationary than Harris's. I asked for proof. You provided none.