rogermunibond

I think there are 3 ways for HNR to work as an investment: 1) Price of crude rises to $100 over the next few years. 2) Market rerates risk premium for Chavez/Ven. nuttiness and fully values Ven. proven and probable reserves 3) 1 or more E&P project hits paydirt #1 and #2 are very unlikely in my estimation. Leaving #3 the most likely route. For most of 2008 HNR mgmt was talking up Harvest Hunter #1 well in Calcasieu Parish, Louisiana. This turned out to be a dry hole. ""Harvest drilled the Harvest Hunter #1 exploratory well in Calcasieu Parish, Louisiana in the fourth quarter of 2008 and undertook a testing program to evaluate three prospective reservoir horizons. On January 9, 2009, the well was determined not to be commercial and was plugged and abandoned. The cost of drilling and testing the well was $10.8 million and was written off to dry hole costs at December 31, 2008."" $10.8 million is not insubstantial. With all Ven. cash flows going toward capex to expand El Salto etc, HNR has only so many chances at striking paydirt before they have used up their cash dividend from Ven.

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/894081/000119312509128378/dex991.htm They lay out the growth plan for the next five years.

5x on $100M in cash flow is looking like a reality. Big ? hanging over ATSG has been lifted. Press Release Source: Air Transport Services Group, Inc. ATSG Completes Aircraft Lease Option Agreement with DHL Will Result in Significant Deleveraging of Balance Sheet * On Monday June 1, 2009, 10:56 am EDT WILMINGTON, Ohio--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Air Transport Services Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: ATSG - News) said today that its subsidiary ABX Air, Inc. has completed an agreement with its principal customer, DHL, concerning leases of certain ABX Air aircraft. The agreement, which is further to a memorandum of understanding that DHL and ABX Air executed in March 2009, grants DHL options to lease from ABX Air, or an affiliate, up to four Boeing 767-200SF (freighter configuration) aircraft under favorable rates, and for terms beginning August 15, 2010, and continuing through 2015. In exchange, DHL has agreed to assume financial responsibility, retroactive to January 31, 2009, for ABX Air’s obligations under capital leases on five Boeing 767-200PC (non-standard cargo door configuration) aircraft currently dedicated to DHL’s U.S. network. As of March 31, 2009, ATSG’s balance sheet reflected $50.2 million of debt and $21.5 million of net book value related to those aircraft capital leases. The agreement calls for ABX Air to grant to DHL up to $10 million of credit against future rent obligations for the four 767-200SFs. If DHL elects not to exercise its options for any of the four 767-200SFs, ABX Air would pay DHL $2.5 million for each such option that DHL elects to forego. ABX Air is expected to continue to operate some or all of the five leased 767-200PCs as required under the current ACMI Agreement between the companies. The agreement does not stipulate whether ABX Air would continue to operate any of the four 767-200SF aircraft that DHL may opt to lease. ATSG CEO and President Joe Hete said, “The completion of this agreement with DHL formalizes the deleveraging process that we announced earlier this year, including the restructuring of our promissory note to DHL. The combined effect of the capital lease transaction and note restructuring, including our commitment to pay DHL $15 million to further reduce the principal balance of the note, would be to reduce our outstanding debt principal by approximately $113 million. The note restructuring also removes some of the limitations on our Board’s ability to consider dividend payments or buybacks for our shareholders. DHL has worked closely with us in finalizing these agreements, and we continue to jointly explore opportunities to provide DHL with additional 767-200SF aircraft on an ACMI or dry lease basis beyond 2010.”

http://www.longleafpartners.com/news/annual_presentation_09.cfm Video and transcript from May 7, 2009.

Live coverage from the hometown (Berkshire-owned) paper. http://www.omaha.com/index.php?u_page=1208&u_sid=10622671

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aRC2DR.cwZFs&refer=home Click on the Video tab. First set of interviews (Buffett, Gates, Sokol, Trott) is 21 minutes.

Because they need them and Astar to fly DHL international serving the U.S. Looks like any deal with UPS is dead.

A very good development for ATSG. Item 1.01. Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement On March 16, 2009, ABX Air, Inc. ("ABX"), a wholly-owned subsidiary of Air Transport Services Group, Inc. ("ATSG"), entered into a letter agreement (the "Letter Agreement") with DPWN Holdings (USA), Inc. and its subsidiaries (collectively, "DHL"), providing for the following: - ABX will make a principal payment in the amount of $15,000,000 under that certain Non-Negotiable Promissory Note, dated as of August 15, 2003, made by ABX in favor of Airborne, Inc. in the original principal amount of $92,948,714 and with a principal balance outstanding as of the date of the Letter Agreement of $92,275,656 (the "DHL Note"). As a result of such payment, the principal amount of the DHL Note will be reduced to $77,275,656. This payment will be made in cash concurrently with the receipt of cash from the "put" to DHL of certain Boeing 767 aircraft under the ACMI Service Agreement between DHL Network Operations (USA), Inc. and ABX, dated August 15, 2003 (the "ACMI Agreement"). - DHL will agree to amend the DHL Note to reduce the principal amount from $77,275,656 to $31,000,000 and to amend or eliminate various restrictive covenants in the DHL Note. Among other changes, the DHL Note will be revised to permit ATSG or its subsidiaries to purchase issued and outstanding shares of ATSG so long as ATSG concurrently prepays the DHL Note in the amount of $0.20 per dollar for each dollar that is expended by ATSG or its subsidiaries on such purchase of shares, and to permit ATSG to pay dividends to stockholders so long as ABX concurrently prepays the DHL Note in the amount of $0.20 per dollar for each dollar that ATSG pays to its stockholders. - ATSG will issue to DHL a written guarantee with respect to ABX's obligations under the DHL Note, as amended. - DHL will agree to continue to reimburse ABX for interest under the DHL Note, as amended, until the later to occur of December 31, 2012 or the date upon which ABX and its affiliates are no longer providing aircraft ACMI/leasing services to DHL and its affiliates involving five or more 767 aircraft in total. - DHL has agreed that it will not renew its previous demand for payment of the DHL Note arising out of the acquisition by ATSG of Cargo Holdings International Inc. and the financing of that transaction (the "CHI Acquisition"). Further, DHL agreed to release any claims it may have based upon the CHI Acquisition against ABX, ATSG and their affiliates. The parties have agreed to act in good faith in seeking to effectuate the terms of the Letter Agreement. ATSG anticipates that the transactions contemplated by the Letter Agreement will be completed prior to March 31, 2009.

There already is such a creature... https://www.irexshop.com/product_info.php?cPath=22_35&products_id=69&osCsid=da8958780eeee3476978a3f5a6055df7 Plus, there's Plastic Logic's product due out in 2010. That's the game changer IMO. http://www.plasticlogic.com/product.html

Bit of background on Elsztain. IRC Cresud has in the past few months increased its holding of IRSA so that it's reported on Cresud's books. From Business Week 1998 ENTREPRENEUR: EDUARDO ELSZTAIN (int'l edition) Eduardo Elsztain, a third-generation Argentine property developer, has a bargain hunter's eye and a long view of the opportunities created by Latin America's new economic model. Those talents have attracted backers willing to invest for the long term despite Argentina's ups and downs. In 1991, seeing that depressed Argentine property values would rise swiftly with the end of hyperinflation, Elsztain got George Soros to back him in buying control of real estate company Inversiones y Representaciones (IRSA). Since then, Elsztain, 38, has assembled $1 billion worth of properties under IRSA management. His projects, including a $400 million plan to build a waterfront financial center, are changing the face of Buenos Aires. And an agricultural real estate company, Cresud, which IRSA and Soros bought in 1994, has become Argentina's No.1 rural landowner and cattle raiser. IRSA, in which Elsztain owns less than 5%, is buffered against the global credit crunch by partners like Soros, who owns 17%. Last December, despite the Asian meltdown, IRSA raised $236 million by issuing new shares, 90% of them bought by existing shareholders.

Before they became professionalized as journalists aka keepers of a "civic trust," newspapermen or hacks twisted with the wind. They wrote stories that publishers would pay for and that the public wanted to read. If the stories meant that you portray hedge fund managers as gods then those were the stories you wrote. Why not? The times were good. Money was plentiful, and those with the most were the most interesting. But just as quickly, when the wind changes, hacks are perfectly happy to tear down those that they spent time building up. The mood has changed the former masters of the universe are vilified by the public. So what's a hack to do? Well you turn on your old masters. You get to write the story on the way up and on the way down. http://www.vanityfair.com/politics/features/2009/04/fortress-group200904?currentPage=1

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1173334/000095013709001091/0000950137-09-001091-index.htm In addition to Horsehead, he added Cresud, Teck Cominco, Potash, Goldman, and Leucadia.

HOFFMAN ESTATES, Ill., Feb. 6 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Sears Holdings Corporation (Nasdaq: SHLD - News) announced today that the 2009 annual meeting of stockholders will be held at the Company's headquarters in Hoffman Estates, Ill., on Monday, May 4, 2009. In addition, the company announced that March 6, 2009 has been fixed as the record date for determination of the stockholders of the Company entitled to notice of and to vote at the annual meeting of stockholders. The company also announced that it currently plans to release financial results for its fiscal 2008 fourth quarter and full year on February 26, 2009, before the market opens. In addition, the company plans to file with the SEC its Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended January 31, 2009 on or before April 1, 2009.