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Spooky

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Posts posted by Spooky

    Buffett/Berkshire - general news

    in Berkshire Hathaway

    Posted

    3 hours ago, nwoodman said:

    For real?  Results were good, but I thought the old boy did a good job of hosing future expectations. This market feels awefully bubbly.

    IMG_0876.thumb.jpeg.19c96eda9100ed7b96791849b959839b.jpeg

     

    Agree with you there. He didn't paint an optimistic long-term portrait of the company. Barring some financial calamity where they are able to be the buyer of last resort, they will struggle to move the needle given their huge size. Given the issues discussed with BHE, if they aren't able to re-deploy their capital in a way that meets Buffett's test for retained earnings, I can see them instituting a dividend which would be unfortunate for me. As a Canadian I'll get hit with withholding taxes.

     

    The pendulum of market sentiment has changed from fear to greed, time to be cautious.

     

     

     

    Buffett/Berkshire - general news

    in Berkshire Hathaway

    Posted · Edited by Spooky

    Excellent letter this year. Was interesting to see him say that the five Japanese trading houses have more shareholder friendly policies than American companies like buying back shares as a discount and management not being so aggressive with their compensation. There were a few subtle and not so subtle digs at the direction the US is going such as the regulatory aspect mentioned above but also the casino mentality and Wall St.

     

    Also that part at the end about going to Omaha to meet Bertie and her attractive daughters was hilarious!

    Fairfax 2024

    in Fairfax Financial

    Posted

    37 minutes ago, MMM20 said:

    As long as you realize Mr. Buffett disagrees with you - he has written about it extensively for decades and it explains nearly all of Berkshire’s excess returns in the middle decades if you really dig into it

     

    This is essentially correct - there is a good paper out there called Buffett's alpha from 2013, I've pasted the abstract below:

     

    Berkshire Hathaway has realized a Sharpe ratio of 0.76, higher than any other stock or mutual fund with a history of more than 30 years, and Berkshire has a significant alpha to traditional risk factors. However, we find that the alpha becomes insignificant when controlling for exposures to Betting-Against-Beta and Quality-Minus-Junk factors. Further, we estimate that Buffett’s leverage is about 1.6-to-1 on average. Buffett’s returns appear to be neither luck nor magic, but, rather, reward for the use of leverage combined with a focus on cheap, safe, quality stocks. Decomposing Berkshires’ portfolio into ownership in publicly traded stocks versus wholly-owned private companies, we find that the former performs the best, suggesting that Buffett’s returns are more due to stock selection than to his effect on management. These results have broad implications for market efficiency and the implementability of academic factors.

     

    Fairfax 2024

    in Fairfax Financial

    Posted

    2 hours ago, dealraker said:

    Yes but it does go somewhat further that the starting point during a positive investor view is simply going to be somewhat negative as to outcome vs a starting point that's questioning the model.  I wasn't aware enough to sell the stock when obviously it, the business and stock, wasn't performing all that well.  But I have bought/added the stock over 30 times in the last several years.

     

    Thus the outcome is crazy good despite...

     

    So while it is up to Fairfax on how to deal with the MW accusations it is up to the investor to deal with stock ownership.  I don't think any of us are capable of avoiding negative blasts or accusations, but I do think that even if some of the accusations are accurate that it is up to the investor to judge that effect on your decisions as to stock ownership.

     

    A great example as I've mentioned so many times is the insurance broker contingency commissions, something that I considered quite accurate as to Spitzer's complaint.  Yet that was buying euphoria, not selling manadate, time.  In hindsight (remember I owned but did not buy more) while I have made many millions on these investments I, likely one of the most knowledgable investors holding the stocks, was the main idiot in the room for not buying more.

     

    Knowing yourself, monitoring yourself, rather than trying to control the wild-ass happenings as to "shorts" or whatever the hell they are?   Well we just watched a Super Bowl, that quarterback that went on the field seemed to control himself rather impressively ----- despite having quite the yard sale of a game up until the overtime.

     

    Who are you? The mirror tells all.  We all can't live by the grievance...but it is the popular theme of the world today.  Fairfax?  To me it is a place to be invested and probably will be far less risky from here that some of the most trusted and successful technology stocks that are likely (in my view) not in any way shape or form capable of giving investors what they expect going forward.  

     

    Thanks for this post Dealraker. So much wisdom embedded within it.

     

     

    Fairfax 2024

    in Fairfax Financial

    Posted

    15 minutes ago, Gmthebeau said:

     

    Bitter little man cuz your stock crashed.  Ok, the analysis was 2 times accused of creative accounting just because you don't understand the analysis doesn't make it less useful. 

     

    Lol! I'm up significantly on my FFH position, a 10-12% drawdown is nothing. I read the report, I did not find it convincing. There is nothing to address the long term performance of the underlying business to state that it is fundamentally impaired. Still think the company is very cheap here.

    Interview with David Einhorn

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:

    If passive is truly becoming more and more dominant and value agnostic, than the opportunities for value investors should only increase as there is less and less competition. So the problem with passive taking over the investing business is somewhat self limiting.

     

    If truly nobody cares about valuation any more, the few that do should be able to find extraordinary opportunities. I don’t think it will be as easy as buying all low PE or low P/B stocks, you can simply automate that process and it is ridiculous to assume it’s going to be that easy.

     

    I believe this is correct - you can't just buy the universe of low PE / PB stocks and expect it to work the same as in the past. Einhorn is looking for companies with a 5x or 6x P/E and that are buying back significant amount of stock. He is not banking on the market to re-rate at a higher price but rather return of capital over time. I like it.

    Fairfax 2024

    in Fairfax Financial

    Posted

    29 minutes ago, Gmthebeau said:

    ok, good luck with your investment.  

     

    If you don't know anything about the company why are you even posting here? Please at least bring some analysis to the table if you are going to post.

    Delta Reports

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    If you have Microsoft word you can run a comparison in tracked changes of two PDF files. The results might be a bit messy but it works fairly well. There are also lots of legal blacklining specific tool for comparing documents you could look at.

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