maplevalue

Got lucky and pretty much bought at the lows for Scottish Mortgage Trust.

Saw something on twitter, which made me have to head over to foxnews.com to see for myself. Look how far down the story about the Canada tariffs are (I added the red box)! Don't think general US public cares that much about this, argues for this going on for awhile.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/article/live-updates-canada-braces-for-trumps-tariffs/ energy 10%, 25% all else

I believe you are referring to the below video. Agree 100% with you. Naive to think there is no problem at the Canadian border. The big point that is mentioned is you can get into Canada with effectively no background check if you come as a student. In the video they talk about this case of someone who was plotting a terrorist attack in the US was in Canada on a student visa: https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/muhammad-shahzeb-khan-terror-new-york-ormstown-1.7322700.

Would disagree here. If anything I imagine Trump thinks implementing tariffs -> hurt liberals -> Pollievre more likely to be PM (which I think Republicans would prefer). So if anything he implements tariffs ASAP.

Two comments: - Polymarket market on probability of 25% tariffs occurring can be found here: https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-impose-25-tariff-on-mexicocanada?tid=1736543719442. Currently trading at 18% chance of this happening. - It's hard to grasp what the likelihood is; however, what I will say is that Canadian economic commentators very strongly assume these tariffs do not happen in a meaningful way. To me this suggests tariffs are not priced into the market right now. My personal view is the threat becomes much more effective if you implement them for a limited time, such as Trump doing them for 3 months to get big concessions from Mexico/Canada without much economic impact to the US. American voters will like this (because who doesn't like sticking it to Canada!)

2019 +16.9% 2020 +12.5% 2021 +12.9% 2022 -12.6% 2023 +21.3% 2023 +26.8% A bit of an interesting performance last couple of years where returns close to FTSE Global All-Cap despite fact my portfolio looks very very different to index (overweight EM and FFH specifically).

Closed the year at exactly $2000!

Some Baillie Gifford investment trusts own. These are traded on the LSE. I own Scottish Mortgage and SpaceX about 5% of the fund.

https://app.rosenbergresearch.com/dashboard/publication-details/08dd1548-599a-442a-8448-24e8630bc36b?bucketId=08dcb188-f40e-40bf-8e74-af88ab237f7c&featureIds=2290f675-fc5d-452e-aca0-acd6455fa76c&publiclyAvailable=true Feels top-ish

Reminds me of part of the reason Philip Morris performed so well (best performing stock 1926-2021) was federal + state lawsuits -> stock to be depressed for a decade despite it still "churn[ed] out cash and pa[id] dividends". Meant the returns from reinvesting the dividends became very large. Stocks for the Long Run 6th Edition (pg 163)

Elliot establishes a 5% position in Scottish Mortgage Trust. This article suggests that SMT's latest announcement to authorize buybacks may have been intended to get ahead of a potential activist https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1043788/scottish-mortgage-buybacks-quizzed-as-activist-investor-builds-stake-1043788.html.

India’s Feet of Clay: How Modi’s Supremacy Will Hinder His Country’s Rise https://www.foreignaffairs.com/india/indias-feet-clay-modi A balanced article; thought there were quite a few similarities to Xi

Trump win -> uncertainty over US monetary policy. His previous nominee Shelton was supportive of gold standard.

Don't sell too much as the hopeful breakout past 800 will be epic