Ulti

https://www.woodmac.com/press-releases/europe-can-weather-halt-in-russian-gas-supplies/

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/pierre-andurand-on-how-we-might-get-%24200-a-barrel-oil/id1056200096?i=1000554342070

http://econbrowser.com/archives/2022/03/oil-prices-and-inflation

https://www.americanpurpose.com/articles/preparing-for-defeat/

Some ideas about us energy policy https://doomberg.substack.com/p/a-serious-proposal-on-us-energy?s=r

I think that we are not so much at an inflection point , more like an acceleration of trends. Technology trends have allowed autocratic governments to control their populations better and easier.The trend of less workers will continue and is similar to the clean energy trend..it will take many years for technology to catch up with labor shortages. I admire all the nimble and thoughtful investors \traders on this board....I think that is what its going to take for capital preservation\ growth in the future.( rather than passive investing\indexing). Kotok made some interesting obeservations on visiting china nowadays. https://ritholtz.com/2022/03/transcript-david-kotok/ https://usmarkettoday.com/will-inflation-stay-high-for-decades-one-influential-economist-says-yes/ https://warontherocks.com/2022/03/is-the-west-laissez-faire-about-economic-warfare/ This is just human nature: It is likely that the expanded use of sanctions will spur countries to pursue models of economic development that increase friction for the global economy. These moves might be conspicuous, such as when countries pursue policies ranging from protectionism to autarky. But they could also be more subtle. China is an outlier in the global economy because its embrace of markets was circumscribed. Chinese policymakers realized that to win their own economic war — the battle for development — the iron fist needed to guide the invisible hand. Other states may come to that same conclusion, particularly if China fares better than more marketized economies at weathering the coming storm.

https://warontherocks.com/2022/03/maintaining-americas-nuclear-deterrent/

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-03-09/niall-ferguson-ukraine-invasion-struggles-could-be-the-end-for-putin?srnd=premium

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-lng-exporters-emerge-big-winners-europe-natgas-crisis-2022-03-09/

Off topic https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-08/china-considers-buying-stakes-in-russian-energy-commodity-firms?srnd=premium

https://warontherocks.com/2022/03/from-pledges-to-action-europes-move-away-from-russian-fossil-fuels/

I've agreed with below for a long time; which is why I'm cautious about new domestic drilling. As an aside, I'm more attracted to companies like CTRA; clean balance sheet, lots of reserves and for now a constraint on capital expenditures, new drilling and acquisitions. Munger in 2013 il is absolutely certain to become incredibly short in supply and very high priced .. The imported oil is not your enemy, it's your friend. Every barrel that you use up that comes from somebody else is a barrel of your precious oil which you're going to need to feed your people and maintain your civilization. And what responsible people do with a Confucian ethos is suffer now to benefit themselves and their families and their countrymen later. The way to do that is to go very slow in producing domestic oil and not mind at all if we pay prices that look ruinous for foreign oil. It's going to get way worse later ... The oil in the ground that you're not producing is a national treasure ... It's not at all clear that there's any substitute [for hydrocarbons]. When the hydrocarbons are gone, I don't think the chemists are going to be able to just mix up a vat and create more hydrocarbons. It's conceivable that they could, I suppose, but it's not the way to bet. We should spend no attention to these silly economists and these silly politicians that tell us to become energy independent.

https://www.sfweekly.com/culture/zyn-next-juul/ Nice layman overview

https://tobacco.ucsf.edu/swedish-match-misrepresents-fda-authorization-its-snus-effort-get-exemption-california-flavor-ban I think you have more to worry about from politicians, anti tobacco groups and maybe the fda?

Rereading book by Daniel Pecaut. Cliff notes of 30 years Annual meetings. Pearls like in 1986 stating that inflation is political not economic (politicians printing money ). Nothing new, but neat from a historical perspective.

I've been thinking about this since China has become more aggressive with Taiwan. Though Intel is cheap, I sold because of the massive capital expenditures they are going to do in the next few years. It should do well over a 5 year period. I've been monitoring SOXX... Taiwan Semi is under 4 %of the portfolio. Might not get the homer you would with options but can participate with the upside \ like the XLE.

Kind of agree. I've owned CSCO for a good bit of time. Looks like they are full on to the shift to services and software...Maybe they think that there will be less money spent on corp networking with more stay home workers? They've expanded into high margin areas like security and 5G so it might not be a bad fit with SPLK.

Thought it was CSCO making the $20B offer

I've done this for several relatives. For the 94 year old mother in law, who's financial person had her in 90% equities, I dropped her to 50\25\25. There is enough liquidity to last and she and her family know that losses can occur but not as severe as before. I chose not to manage her account because I do not like back seat drivers who don' know how to drive (I only have a learner's permit.) For the younger nieces and nephews, I've made sure they had emergency funds, Roths and some type of 401k\ira set up. Vehicle of investment choice is VGSTX which offers broad diversification across asset classes at low cost. They are told to go to Vanguard and read about the fund. Also told to educate themselves before investing in individual securities. I also step out but tell them I'm happy to be consulted. Don't want to risk the relationships.

yes could be the old "the only cure for high prices is high prices" .. high oil leads to falling demand and higher interest rates which leads to lower oil. I like this tweet from Brent Donnelly

https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/lawler-more-on-investor-purchases-e45?utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web It seems like with the above, crowdsourcing via real estate fintech , and companies like Blackstone buying MF..... there is a long runway for companies like AIV APTS and CLPR. Am I missing something?

Thanks Pupil... If ever interest rates start approaching the annualized distribution rate of the fund...It would slow down? And companies paying above market rates for properties like Blackstone is currently doing is one of Gregmal's thesis behind APTS and AIV bets? Sorry if the questions seem very basic. I've been in the medical field for 40 years and my commercial real estate understanding, except on a very personal basis, has been nonexistent.

Blackstone acquires Decatur apartments for $100 million... The apartments were sold far above average market price for the area, indicating high-value sales are pushing pricing higher. This is happening all over the metropolitan Atlanta area ( and I'm sure all over the Sunbelt). It seems this trend really started in 2009-2010 with Colony and other companies buying up massive amounts of housing for rental property and will continue even with high inflation\interest rates. And as you read about the effort to form Buckhead City, for myself and many Buckhead residents, it's not only about the crime. It's about progressive proposals to increase density in single family neighborhoods and eventually eliminate single family zoning altogether. And the arguments that Buckhead was founded on racist policies to back these proposals is also being made. ( full disclose: I'm a moderate and I also can't stand the people who are leading the effort for Buckhead City.) All this leads me to the questions 1)what can stop this multifamily trend and 2) when does it stop? How does demographics and boomer retirement play a roll( and it does according to Calculated Risk post )? Is it cyclical like I'm seeing in energy and commodities? I'm not the brightest bulb on the planet by any stretch and appreciate in advance any responses that help my education.

https://humbledollar.com/2021/11/when-cash-is-king/

I happen to fall in your camp..long the local company APTS. Go Braves