Ulti

https://allstarcharts.com/a-double-whammy-for-cyclical-assets/

13.5 minute mark on Energy.. Spot on

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/jonathan-miller-on-urban-real-estate/id730188152?i=1000567635324 good discussion on mf overbuild, sunbelt, NYC,and all thing RE

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/corporate-insiders-buying-dip-stocks-163627737.html

Commodities reverse lower on recession fears Key points: The Bloomberg Spot Commodity Index registered a new 63-day low on 6/21/22 The new low occurred in 25 trading sessions or fewer from a 252-day high After similar signals, commodities struggled in the next few months What's the market message from the reversal in commodities I've had a bullish outlook on commodities since the fall of 2021, note titled Since the publish date, the Bloomberg Spot Commodity Index is up 17.3%. At the same time, the S&P 500 is down 13.5%. As an investor, it's always important to remain flexible and keep an open mind to all outcomes as new data emerges. So, with commodities crumbling on recession fears, let's assess the outlook for the Bloomberg Spot Commodity index when the index reverses from a 252-day high to a 63-day low in 25 trading sessions or fewer. I used closing prices for the study. Commodity momentum since the pandemic low has been historic, registering the 2nd highest 2-year rolling return in history. The two previous momentum surges preceded or coincided with recessions in 1973-75 and 1980. While the sample size is small, potential recession fears are not unfounded. Interestingly, commodities suffered several sharp setbacks in the 1973-75 recession while maintaining a bullish secular trend. Similar signals preceded negative returns for commodities This study generated a signal 17 other times over the past 88 years. After the others, commodity returns, win rates, and z-scores look unfavorable across short and medium-term time frames. The 1-4 week window shows a loss at some point in 14 out of 17 cases. What happens to copper after commodity reversal signals Given the reversal in copper that I shared in a note on Wednesday, let's apply the commodity signal dates to copper to see if the momentum shift impacts the economically sensitive metal. As with the commodity index, copper returns and win rates look unfavorable across short and medium-term time frames. What happens to stocks after commodity reversal signals Stocks show a positive return across all time frames, with the 1-year window looking solid except for the recessionary bear markets in 1937, 1980, and 2008. What the research tells us... When the Bloomberg Spot Commodity Index reverses from a 252-day high to a 63-day low in 25 trading sessions or fewer, the shift in momentum typically leads to more adverse price action for commodities. Similar setups to what we're seeing now have preceded unfriendly commodity returns, win rates and z-scores across short and medium-term time frames. When I apply the signals to copper, forward returns look unfavorable in the next few months. An assessment of stocks looks constructive, especially on a 1-year time frame, as long as we avoid a recession. Want to change how you receive these emails? You can update your preferences or unsubscribe from this list.

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/a-concrete-plan-to-bring-the-price-of-oil-down-right-now/id1056200096?i=1000567389279 an excellent podcast on some short term solutions that the current admin can do

lotsa nice charts.. will be interviewed over weekend https://millersamuel.com/charts/

Senate Banking Committee hearing Wednesday, Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren urged Powell to proceed with rate hikes cautiously and avoid setting off a recession that costs millions of jobs. Warren asked Powell if Fed rate increases will lower gas prices, which have hit record highs this Warren asked if grocery prices will go down because of the Fed's war on inflation. "I wouldn't say so, no," Powell said. https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2022/06/22/economy/jerome-powell-inflation-senate-hearing/index.html

http://econbrowser.com/archives/2022/06/about-40-years-of-inflation-expectations-errors

Check this out G … I might have to hold onto my aiv https://www.zillow.com/research/may-2022-market-report-31157/

https://www.corelogic.com/intelligence/april-jump-in-us-rent-price-growth-puts-pressure-on-inflation-corelogic-reports/

https://stayathomemacro.substack.com/p/we-are-not-in-a-recession-nor-is

https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/housing-completions-will-increase This is what Fed Chair Powell was referring to last week when discussing house prices: How much will it affect housing prices? Not really sure. Obviously, we are watching that quite carefully. You’d think over time … There is a tremendous amount of supply in the housing market of unfinished homes … and as those come online … He didn’t finish that thought, but clearly with weakening demand, and more new supply (and increasing existing home supply), house price growth will slow sharply. Rent growth should slow too. (But house prices will be up 20%+ year-over-year in the Case-Shiller report next week due to reporting lags!)

Actually focusing on carbon reduction rather than a scorched earth esg policy is what we need… this applies to all parties https://finance.yahoo.com/m/b88a56de-adbc-3703-b65d-8744c29f5460/southwestern-energy-signs-key.html it’s good for bus…. And companies seem to get it

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/why-its-so-hard-to-get-the-oil-taps-turned-back-on/id1056200096?i=1000567103730

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4519091-berkshire-hathaway-hit-to-book-value-could-be-drastic-but-buying-opportunity#scroll_comments

https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/may-housing-starts-all-time-record interesting info on starts\completions of single and MF

https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage-rates

Ha I thought is was more like tipping your favorite girl at the strip club

And I hope Buf. is feeling the same

And Crypto isn't even shown ?

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/jim-chanos-on-why-some-of-the-worst-hit-parts/id1056200096?i=1000566614549 I thought the pod was interesting. At the 17 minute mark , Chanos discusses how MF and reits in general are overvalued in a normalized earning environment...for MF 2-3%cap rates pre capital spending with approx 5 % 10 years. I thought that most in the space have locked in low rates on their debt and if construction loans are more expensive that means less product on the market and rents stabilize at the current higher rates. What am I missing?