Ulti

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/popping-bubble-stocks-update-ray-dalio/

https://mebfaber.com/2022/04/27/e410-chris-bloomstran/ excellent interview with a good section on energy

https://www.thebulwark.com/i-commanded-u-s-army-europe-heres-what-i-saw-in-the-russian-and-ukrainian-armies/

Yep, interesting that he's been thinking about the bank angle "for 2 or 3 months ". More importantly, He seems to feel that copper is going to , and I'm paraphrasing, break out 2023 ish. How does one invest, bhp\rio or the etf route \ cper ? Seems like Mr Currie believes that we are " in the 2nd inning". There are also smaller companies like cmmc\ero\trq. Or do you do what he suggests and find a BCOM? Personally, I've done the BCOM route with metals, ag, ind etc. and individual equities for O&G.

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/jeff-currie-on-the-volatility-trap-keeping-commodity/id1056200096?i=1000557582351

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/this-is-what-5-mortgage-rates-mean-now-for-the-housing-market/id1056200096?i=1000557071031 we speak with Conor Sen, a Bloomberg Opinion contributor and the founder of Peachtree Creek Investments as well as Dustin Jalbert a senior economist at Fastmarkets, with a specialty on the lumber market. We examine housing from both the macro perspective as well as the supply chain.

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/tip438-berkshire-hathaway-masterclass-w-chris-bloomstran/id928933489?i=1000556846453

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/buffett-s-11-6-billion-deal-started-with-a-dinner-in-new-york-1.1750940

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/julia-ioffe-on-putins-road-to-war/id1277250997?i=1000553721801

Tracy Cool's 2nd annual letter https://mcusercontent.com/64e1b84729b4195a49b750934/files/d432d3ac-e0b3-fa65-05f5-783b4ab1ca20/Kanbrick_Annual_Letter_2021_vFF.pdf

Spek, I would be interested to know what you think ;but after reading this and reading \watching Howard Marks: The pendulum has swung back to safe and secure. Putin will be in power for a long time (unless health ). Comm.and energy will be at elevated levels for a long time. Its a very long road for green energy. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-solar-expansion-stalled-by-rural-land-use-protests-2022-04-07/

https://octavian.substack.com/p/the-bear-breaks-down-andrei-soldatov?s=r

Howard Marks latest https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/the-pendulum-in-international-affairs

https://www.reuters.com/business/canadas-cp-rail-shuts-down-railroad-workers-strike-2022-03-20/ Does this matter to oil sands?

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/100-Oil-Is-A-Wakeup-Call-For-Canadian-Producers.html

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/indias-oil-imports-us-rise-amid-criticism-russian-purchases-2022-03-19/

Thanks SD for your patience and education. A few more questions ... and realize I'm asking in self interest... I hold directly CTRA, SU and a comm. fund \about 10% of portfolio. I'm trying to figure out risk\reward and whether to add at an appropriate moment. How reliable is the ME in supplying Europe and storing NG for them ? Europe trusted the Russians and.... It seems like you would want to directly hold as much Ng as possible on your own soil. And isn't the transition to Green going to take years and years? It seems like from your comments that Asia ( ex china) is left holding the bag with a longer supply chain. Are they going to make this up from N. America ? Aren't Canadian pipelines being underbuilt\stopped at this time.. esp. to the coast for easier transport? I know you have made comments in the past about being a very nimble Comm. investor. Is Pierre Andurand correct and thinking this is a long term cycle? Maybe this is Mr. Buffet's thinking as well with his recent increase in OXY. ( and I have a lot of BRK.b shares ). And when I read the news should I be looking at everything thru an energy \comm lens ? Israel does have NG. https://www.jta.org/2022/03/09/global/israeli-president-visits-turkey-for-talks-with-erdogan-in-sign-of-renewed-relations

And I did misstate : I don't know if 90% storage =90% need. I doubt it but it sounds like they are planning to store a shitload more than they usually do.

Quote from commision: The Commission intends to present by April a legislative proposal requiring underground gas storage across the EU to be filled up to at least 90% of its capacity by 1 October each year.

Also seems like the activist never stop. https://variety.com/2022/politics/news/mark-ruffalo-royal-bank-of-canada-coastal-gaslink-pipeline-1235206695/

SD, How realistic that Europe can store 90% of its lng needs every year ? Opec +\middles east\ seems to be in the driver seat but they are not cranking it out. I read somewhere that lng shipping form the US is like 5 o'clock traffic with all the tankers going to Europe ( at the expense of asia ). https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_22_1511

totally agree...also after hearing Pierre Andurand's podcast this morning, I think its going to be an ugly '23 winter for Europe.