backtothebeach

What's so wrong about being a neutral country, prospering from trade agreements in both directions? It will take a long time to heal the wounds of this war though. But what's the alternative? Russia biting off the eastern part of the country, including Kiev/Kyiv, a demilitarized zone and border like North/South Korea?

Where do I start... So I met this guy yesterday who is utterly convinced that there is a conspiracy hiding the fact that Swift will be replaced by XRP, i.e. the whole International Banking system will run on XRP after an intentional crash of the system. This will make one XRP worth thousands or tens of thousands of dollars and make everybody ridiculously rich who has even a few hundred XRP coins. Russia being kicked out of Swift is just the first trial balloon, the first countries to adopt ripple/XRP will be Russia, China, India and Brazil. Then they will claim unprecedented cyber attacks, probably by Russia, to shut the whole system down and make the big switch to XRP... and the whole SEC lawsuit is just a distraction. Guy was deep down the rabbit hole… Claims he has done hours of “video research” of the subject every day for over half a year. I’ve watched a few videos, but frankly I fall asleep watching them because it’s such gibberish. Still, I don’t want to shit on the guy too much because what the fuck do I know, it’s not like conspiracy theories never come true haha. Crazy thing is, the guy has convinced a lot of his friends and even family to buy into the story. Whatever, as long as one Berkshire Hathaway A share buys around 400,000 espressos in Italy, or 4000 nights at a good Airbnb apartment, I think I’ll be fine lol.

Lol, When the name of this site starts with “Corner of Berkshire” it is only natural that people get a little chippy when you’re calling Berkshire just another “ticker”. I find it kind of refreshing, good to challenge the narrative. Somehow Buffett has grown book value at inflation +8% or so very reliably over the years. I think people see Berkshire almost as a volatile but ultimately reliable bond that pays out an 8 to 10% coupon (which you could realize by selling 8% of your holdings every year, preferably when the price is high). How much over par value would you pay for a 30 year AAA rated bond that pays 8%? Or a preferred stock that has a $7.5 perpetual dividend? WFC-PL trades at $135 at the moment.

Great estimates. From reported numbers I get: BH Shareholders' Equity in million 506199 Equivalent A shares at year end 1477429 BV per A 342622 BV per B 228.41

Which jockey do you trust more?

Quite the cheery consensus here.

Bought SPY Sep/Feb 400 put calendar spread @ $16.70 SPY has a gap at $400 ($2.71 gap). Gap theory says it is very likely to close. The game plan is to roll the short put as many months as necessary to close out the long put when SPY is close to the strike price. It is also a smidgen of insurance vs. my long portfolio.

In my opinion the drop and yesterday‘s bounce were way too fast to have been a meaningful bottom. Also there is a gap in SPY / S&P500 from April last year at $400 that needs to be filled.

Thank you, this really is a gem, and I am only half way through listening. Buffett's definition of a bubble: "a bubble is when basically a very high percentage of the population buys into some originally sound premise and –- it’s quite interesting how that develops –- originally sound premise that becomes distorted as time passes and people forget the original sound premise and start focusing solely on the price action." The sound premise in the 90s being "the internet will change the world." Before 2007/2008: "Housing prices almost always go up." I have a hard time applying this to the current market as a whole. Maybe to pockets of the market. Sound premises that may have been distorted: -Large tech companies with network effects are almost unassailable and will always keep growing. (So let's give $250B to multi T$ market cap companies P/Es of 35-100). -SaaS companies get entrenched in their customers' systems, will have hypergrowth for more than a few years, and recurring revenue is worth more than one time revenue. (So let's give it a market cap of 60 times revenue.) Thoughts?

I always thought Buffett I always thought the 17 lean years would always be followed by 17 fat years, at least that was the case until 1999. So far so good from 2016-2022 ..., maybe we are in for 11 more fat years until 2033

Congrats on the strategy change from 2019. The Christmas crash in 2018 must have been a wake up call (it was for me).

Glad to hear that, I guess I'm not crazy then!

With Omicron sweeping through the globe, a fair bit of people reading these boards must have (had) it. I started to have a sore throat last Sunday. It lasted for 3 days. Today, Thursday, it is gone. Still gonna rest a few more days. Other symptoms: Upper and slight lower back aches, slight joint aches. Very little runny nose. A weird thing: One day in, I felt a little soreness in my left upper arm exactly at the spot where I got the Pfizer shots (second shot 4.5 months ago). Felt exactly like it felt about a week after the shots. I did not bother to get tested, because it is fairly obvious. Maybe I'll get my antibody levels tested later on. Probably caught it at an airport or on a flight where quite a few people where sniffling and sneezing.

LOL, you totally got me there. Great post about how easy it is to make a totally wrong point with a hand picked stat.

IB came through, too. My effective selling price was CAD 589.50, after a 15% withholding it appears, which is what I expected thanks to this thread. I only tendered 50 shares, surprised that only 45 got sold, I thought odd lots would go through as tendered? Not complaining.

Any educated estimates for 2021 year end book value? Low $220s?

Hmm, exactly one year later another strong rotation towards value. Must be the time of the year...

Thanks Spek, that’s good info and better analysis than I have done.

Not a "best", but a speculative idea: Leoni (LEO - IBIS, Germany) Recovering, highly indebted supplier for the car industry, hampered by supply chain issues. If they did not go bust during Covid I guess the risk of them going bust is very small. I'm biased, because after the financial crises 2009 I rode them up from 7.50 to 60, finally sold at 40. Currently a little above 10, after a pop on high volume today. I have a small position entered at ~$13, currently under water. I think this one could get volatile on good news and print above $20 in the next couple of years.

https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/well-all-be-dead-before-fda-releases-full-covid-vaccine-record-plaintiffs-say-2021-12-13/

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I agree there is no proof. As far as I understand, the vaccine is supposed to work primarily by producing the spike protein in muscle cells. I’ve also heard that the lipid nano particles could be the reason for problems when they go directly in to the heart or ovaries, with an intramuscular injection they would stay in the muscle, no? Anyway, I’m not a doctor, but it makes sense to me to make sure by aspirating that an injection that is supposed to be intramuscular really goes into the muscle and not directly into the bloodstream.

2021 was the year when the stars finally aligned for my leveraged Berkshire and compounder heavy, only partially hedged portfolio. Almost everything that could go right, went right. 2014-2020: 10.2% CAGR 2021: 97.5% Biggest contributors: Berkshire, BAM, MKL, CLF, GME short puts. Biggest losers: short SPY (hedge), short AAPL calls (hedge) 8 year CAGR is now 18.6%.

I’m not a doctor, so make up your own mind. However it makes logical sense to me. By aspirating the small risk of injecting the vaccine directly into a blood vessel is avoided, which is vey likely to reduce the risks of blood clotting or heart inflammation. The vaccine is supposed to do most of its job in the muscle. John Campbell has been covering the pandemic rather objectively, is pro vaxx, and has been pounding the table on this for a while.

Maybe. On the other hand 2 years are a long time, you'd be betting against a cult, and EV adoption might hit an inflection point (S curve) in 2023. You could also do a ratio spread, buying the Jan 2024 $2000 call and selling two $2475 calls (the highest strike available), at a credit of roughly $70. The advantage: Techniqually you are now short the $2950 strike call, which doesn't even exist yet, and only start losing money with TSLA above $3020 at expiration. Also, if TSLA ends up close to the short strikes you actually have a max profit of $545. The disadvantage: The structure as a spread pretty much prevents you from closing it out early at a good profit, it is only closer to expiration that the risk graph takes shape. And 1.5 to 2 years is quite a long wait.