backtothebeach

Already bounced back...something is going on with FIH.U.

Maybe look for a precedent of previous index adds and how they behaved intraday on and around the add date.

DXYZ is at it again, up 50% today, at times trading above $40. NAV on 6/30 was a whopping $5.15, shares outstanding unchanged. They seem to have trouble with their shareholder meeting, postponing it several times. Last SEC filing: "I hope this email finds you well. I wanted to inform you that unfortunately, we were unable to meet the quorum requirements for our annual meeting of shareholders scheduled for October 28, 2024. As a result, we have made the decision to reschedule the meeting to November 14, 2024, at 2:00 p.m. Eastern Time."

Same here. I have used the Midprice algorithm on SSD and MELI, for example, and it gets better and faster fills than limit orders. Unfortunately Midprice algo is not available for FRFHF or FFH.

Yes, there is one precedent for that, in Q3, 2020 I think, when the media didn’t notice the payable for T bills as well, some of them corrected it, some didn’t.

Yeah, too easy!

Operating earnings not so great because of insurance and "other", whatever that includes. No buybacks during or after the end of the quarter. What the hell is he planning with all that cash?!

2023 Q3 2024 Q2 2024 Q3 Book Value BH SE in Mio. 525,330 601,697 629,069 A share equ Q end 1,445,546 1,436,696 1,437,608 BV per A 363,413 418,806 437,580 BV per B 242.28 279.20 291.72 current B share price 351.7 428.36 452.14 Mcap 762,598 923,135 975,000 BV multiple 1.45 1.53 1.55 Cash cash & equiv. 25,573 36,884 32,287 treasury bills 126,401 234,618 288,031 cash railroad 5,267 5,440 4,894 payable for treasuries -14,868 Total 157,241 276,942 310,344 Cash % of Market Cap 20.6% 30.0% 31.8% Operating Earnings Insurance underwriting 2,422 2,263 750 Insurance investment 2,470 3,320 3,664 BNSF 1,221 1,227 1,383 BHE 498 655 1629 Pilot 183 171 198 MSR 3,341 3,209 3,144 non-controlled businesses 226 220 199 other 400 533 -877 Operating Earnings 10,761 11,598 10,090

5 year chart

While I don't know the truth, this is shamefully inept reporting. Of course the stashes of cash and gold, if they exist, are not in a cupboard on floor -2 of the hospital, they would be 30 meters below that in a tunnel system that is accessed from hidden entrances outside and maybe quite far away from the hospital. One a side note, I met a BBC employee last year during my travels. The woke capture and the amount of wasteful spending he told me about - like Twitter before Musk. So yes, in my book the BBC is a biased news source at best, not reliable. Your mileage may vary.

Part 2 below. He's one of the original "Market Wizards", no? I hadn't heard him speak. Very well spoken, but I'm surprised he didn't mention spending. Musk and the DOGE Department of Government Efficiency to the rescue, ha! As far as election markets, I think he is correct that there is a conservative bias on Polymarket and others. Current odds:

Thanks. Yes, maybe repost in the other thread.

C’mon guys, this thread is about the prediction markets, not about Trump interviews or memes. The last two posts are off topic, I suggest they be deleted by their authors.

Thanks for posting the Matt Levine stuff. Once you take all the complexities into account, in addition to liquidity and fees, there likely is no real arbitrage here. Nuances matter. For example on predictit.org it says "This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Kamala Harris becomes the 47th President of the United States." Presumably this includes Harris becoming president before January 20th if Biden resigns, or something happens to him. On Polymarket it says: "The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2025) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated." So it is not the same definition.

At https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024 you can currently buy a Kamala Harris win at 40%, whereas on https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7419/Will-Kamala-Harris-be-the-47th-US-president you can buy a "NO" at 51%. Seems like a safe 8-9% return, as she will either be president or not, even if something unexpected happens. Anyone playing this? **No discussion of politics please!**

Like that Henry Ford guy that hardly anyone remembers ... lol

Yeah that was fast, lol. I just closed it. The trade made around 40-50% of its max profit in 1 day (assuming a volatility crush after earnings in November), so do really want to wait around 3 more months for an uncertain outcome? I also put on a smaller trade at the variant you suggested (short Nov 2024 $35 call), I'll probably keep that one rollin'.

Plausibile deniability. "Oh no, there are no travel bans in China. We have rule of law!"

Thank you, good alternative unless the stock tanks on earnings. Your suggestions on EBAY upthread were spot on by the way. EBAY running up steadily helped of course. Thank you and also to @Gregmal for coming up with EBAY as a candidate!

Looking at possible option plays on CELH. Thesis: At some point the stock should bottom out and stabilize in a range between $25-35 with a lot of volatility. A quick rebound to $35+ is also possible. Risk: It's a falling knife, could go below $20 if they start losing market share. So I would want to limit the downside. With CELH at $29: Diagonal spread: + Jan 2026 $25 call @ 11.00 - Jan 2025 $35 call @ 2.50 net cost 8.50 Downside reasonably protected. Flexibility to sell more calls at same or lower strike prices during all of 2025. This is a high volatility stock, especially around earnings, so premiums are good. I feel this is not ideal yet... any thoughts?

Long live Xi! Doing all the right things to keep China's population safe from harmful ideas. /s --- China tells schoolteachers to hand in their passports https://www.ft.com/content/2aa2170d-2e31-4066-9813-d1b760db3402 "Teachers who refused to hand in their passports or who travelled abroad without permission would be subject to “criticism and education” or referred to China’s anti-corruption authority, depending on the severity of their case, the notice said. Offenders would also be barred from travel for two to five years." https://www.firstpost.com/explainers/why-china-is-asking-school-teachers-to-hand-in-their-passports-13822813.html

So if the same house gets hit by 2 hurricanes within a couple of weeks, methinks the insurance pays only once, not twice...

That could have been a 5 minute video, geeez. A good point about Mersheimer shifting goal posts, and then 15 minutes of rambling.

how about opening a separate thread for this company?

I read that “monkeypox in Kamala” at first glance, lol.