scorpioncapital

position sizing is more art than science. However if you start to get a zoo, and start to feel uncomfortable because tending to the animals monthly takes too much time you might want to consolidate or question your thesis about the space and how you participate - or if you participate at all.

you will make mistakes. but remember the psychological studies: people hate losses much more than gains. think of future losses in a bubble market , even if you lose some upside. be aggressive if you don't think you know the position so well, if you use margin, if you don't need so much wealth because you can say this is enough. most important is to genuinely ask yourself if you really really know this problem , field or stock well. most of the time you'll feel better selling if you think this way.

welcome to the austerity inflation future in western "developed" nations. no service. no staff. expect the robots online to serve your needs, very badly. and pay top dollars for it.

It depends if the government/cbs are manipulating the currency or allowing a free market. If it's a free market, the question is how bad one nation gets against another.

Not that I can see. Growth will always be more valuable than value and or value traps.

Is that realized and/or unrealized gains? It's a huge difference. I wouldn't exactly say paper gains are real until taken.

sell aggresively if you have debt. sell if you think you were just lucky. sell if you find something better or to consolidate 2-3 positions into 1 high conviction, stronger peer. sell if you get bored by what you hold. sell if you don't sleep well.

seems Berkshire is a total play on unexpected inflation. short of some unknown relatively cheap growth at a reasonable price business they can acquire , what else will cause outperformance but a sudden event where money becomes valuable again due to rising interest rates ?

biotech is in a bubble just as big as ev and fuel cells..I've had some 300-800% gainers in less than 6 months which is obviously insane. "A lot of times, SPACs trade up on announcement of a merger not even the approval" even more than that , I've seen spacs trade to 11 or 12 from 10 IPO even before announcement of anything at all! (eg cmlf).

i had it, no problem, just 2 weeks of some bed rest, as i would do with any other cold/flu. your conclusion is way out of proportion to statistical reality.

Well the governments of almost every country has been subsidizing real estate with a variety of programs and benefits for decades, it's time for stock investors to get some of that love too right? )

where is the bulletpoint for "never"?

Is it? How can we separate low rates by growth rate? Would tech growth rate be reduced by higher rates enough to make a difference, since higher rates also reduce value stock business prospects? The only explanation I can think of why Berkshire would outperform in higher rate environment is just cash which will be more valuable and some businesses like financials or utilities that may make more money in a counter-cyclical kind of way.

The double taxation treaty does not reduce the tax to the correct amount. It just standardizes it to a flat say 15%. If your tax rate would have been lower , some may be recoverable on a tax return or maybe not. Usually you want a low withholding tax but I'm under no illusion that the treaty reduces the tax to the proper amount, just makes having to collect anything above a threshold much easier.

", a broke generation (Millennials), a" - and what do broke people do in Socialist countries? - steal your stuff! Expect taxes to rise dramatically.

Does anyone know where to find the cnbc Malone interview nov 2020 full length? It was on cnbc pro for like 24 hours after for free and then went paid. I wish I knew that as only saw a few minutes into it )

Unfortunately Canada is one of the few countries in the world with an exit tax at all and of those that have it , it kicks in at a paltry 100k canadian. As such they have locked the doors while starting the fire. It is crucial if you have capital to move residency before you are rich or before you invest. Or..alternatively when there is a crash. 2020 was an excellent year to take up residency in Europe , for example if you have an EU passport or take advantage of one of their programs. 1/3 of the EU countries have zero or very low capital gains tax in one form or another. The key is to do it before. And I see a high chance Canada is going to be desperate and go for confiscation

Quite a few 'aggregate' operations. the japanese stocks and pharma come to mind, and the airlines before that. It seems they do this when they think some area is interesting but are not 100% sure of the best name to own in concentrated form, yet think they know enough not to own a broad sector index.

The benefits of wealth inequality are exactly the negatives of communism. However when you get tyrants to capture the state as you see even today in eastern europe, even without communism you get a kind of very unequal crony capitalism/oligarchs.

why is he selling down financials? will they be depressed a long time? is it a view on chronically lower interest rates ?

Perhaps we are all wrong but it's possible the next shoe to drop will be massively jacked up interest rates and then game over for a lot of debt-model business model players - including governments. I wonder if this will happen in our lifetime.

Not if you renounce your permanent residency or citizenship. If you have permanent residency you 100% have a 2nd passport. If you renounce the citizenship you may have a 2nd one (e.g. European heritage). If your estate is under something like 2 million there is also no capital gains tax on unrealized gains.

And how did Volker erase decades and years of mistrust? I mean in countries like Greece or Argentina you have serial default for their entire history, one after the other but far enough apart that old incidents are forgotten. I would say a short memory does more to clear distrust (temporarily) than any action by a harsh central banker. Even still you would expect average rates to be permanently higher the more such incidents exist.

If many insurers own government bonds and the Fed promises to hold rates below inflation, the liabilities of these companies certainly don't have this guarantee. I see the risk of your 'run of the mill' insurer that they have escalating liabilities and declining investment income. This is why I see BRk and MKL outperform somewhat, they have far more equity like backup to pay their liabilities. There is also the issue of how fast you can release reserves that become part of your equity base and not depend on your 'credit card'.

I'm scratching my head because I think snowflake IPOs at 25-30 billion market cap? And the financials do not look to justify this price in any shape at the moment.