Xerxes

What we consider as an escalation to WW3 (grouping all things nuclear) is probably seen by them as a legitimat extension of their current conventional war ... and not seen as escalation to WW3. Hence my example about Japan. West has a very different sandbox in term of how to view escalations when compared to Russia. i.e. a mismatch in the escalation ladder. I am not suggesting that they are ready to set the world ablaze for the hell of it, but I do suggest that they view tactical nukes as a natural extension of their forces currently fighting. Another tool in the toolbox, just like the flow of Western equipment to Ukraine, is another tool in the Western toolbox in its undeclared war against Russia. The Western perspective is that the use of tactical nukes leads to WW3. That equation does not (in my opinion) hold for Russia. Anyways, just my opinion. Their concern for their troop safety (pulling from Kiev) is more of a concern in fixing a very flawed strategy of launching war on three axis, which has now been unified under the leadership of one general.

Said differently: Did the Japanese military caste who held sway over the foreign affairs and governement at large made the right bet when they put their plan in motion for a pre-emptive strike at Pearl Harbour. Which was very much similiar to what they did in the 1904-05 war with Russia. i.e. pre-emptive strike being a normal course of action to start a military conflict. It made sense from their point of view given the sandbox and their calculus. Washington may have thought otherwise ... but that didn't matter, the point is that the Japanese did it like that despite conventional thinking.

The remaining NG trade with Europe is the counter-weapon that Europe will deploy and I agree with that. But overtime that is slowly going away anyways. We in the west might see the use of any kind of nuclear weapons as a taboo (thereby your dealth cult comment), but clearly their military doctrine allows them to deploy as a first-use on the battlefield against enemy military formations. All I am saying is we cannot hold & apply conventional Western thinking. I for one have been mostly wrong abouy my assumptions about Russia in the past 2 months. So I will not assume that they will not trigger their tactical nuke based on some sort of conventional business case.

Great post, until the day it isn't and a tactical nuke is indeed dropped ... And disagree with your last paragraph, that was the whole point of this invasion. A RESET. Putin would have been in box 10 years from now, if there was no invasion, with Ukraine propsering while Russia stagnated. Now he is back at it and fully in charge, traitors gone, oligarch with questionable loyality gone, and the world on the edge. Him and his will draw from power from that. If you are anybody in the Russian societ today, you EITHER WITH HIM or are AGAINST RUSSIAN PEOPLE.

You get 2 out of 3 right. The first two paragraphs. China cannot understand & control Vlad Putin anymore than we do. Kremlin will not seek permission from Dehli nor Beijing to address what is considers as its national security. The events in 2022 will make Russia subservient to Beijing over time, but the latter will have no influence today now that the war has been launched. Only one person does. And only that one person knows his red line threshold.

Spek, you got to be kidding me in thinking that the West will get into a direct shooting war with Russia, if they use tactical nukes. The only thing one can say is that it will be completely different world the day after, even if it is a low-yield Hiroshima like nukes, due to the fact that they are tabooed.

https://www.military.com/history/russias-dead-hand-soviet-built-nuclear-doomsday-device.html/amp i actually read a whole book on this topic few years ago. The book is also called “Dead Hand”. Basically after the first ICBM takes off the Doomsday Machine will send a non-human signal to the rest of nuclear arsenal ordering them to launch and at that point the whole thing would become unstoppable. “In a crisis that might mean a first strike from the United States, high-ranking government officials or military commanders could activate the Perimeter. Perimeter would guarantee that the Soviet Union (and now, Russia) could respond even if its entire armed forces were wiped out. Once switched on, the Perimeter system can launch the entire Russian nuclear arsenal in response to a nuclear attack. It was part of the Cold War doctrine of mutually assured destruction, a means of deterring nuclear attacks by ensuring the side who initiated a first strike also would be annihilated.”

I think after the very first week, when the Ukrainian did not “rise” against their own constitution and government, he is no longer interested in anything other than complete eradication of their identity. From his perspective, they said no at his offer to become an imperial vassal. now with his army pillaging and raping, all the niceties are gone on the ground as well. I have no doubt the Ukrainian are probably showing Russian little mercy as well (we are well past cute videos of captured Russians calling their mom at the onset of the war) The scars will take 50 years to heal tactical nukes are nothing other than means to gain (re-gain) upper hand as per Russian military doctrine, while knowing that there political consequences.

Disagree He will have no qualms in using a low yield tactical nuke if when he feels situation warrants it in his war in a non-NATO country. It is no different than a massive bomb compacted in a single delivery mechanism from a military point of view. That being said, there are political consequence as a multi-decade taboo would be broken and a first. but those consequences will not be a NATO direct assault (conventional or nuclear) on Russia. As that is the road to apocalypse. Even in a theoretical total NATO success and a decapitated nuked Moscow, the “Dead Hand” automated system (read about it) will take take care of the rest of the planet and turn it into a parking lot, on behalf of now dead Putin … and solve our inflation problem while at it. jeremi Gratham will also finally be right

The enemy gets a vote too Russia may use their low-yield tactical nuke against the regular Ukrainain military forces in the West of Donbas region, as they (Russian) regoup their own force. Clearly all indication is that (from what we see in the Media) that they are preparing for an offensive in the eastern side of the country, what if this just one big trap to bring in as many Ukrianian military forces as they can and then ... Sadly, as Ukraine keeps scoring against Russia, we are dangerously getting close to the level where Russia may decide to use tactical nuke (tabooed be damned), as its military doctrine allows it to use as a first-use on battlefield PS: lastly reading some of the commentaries by Zelensky in the days and week, I think it is clear that he finally understands that the West will fight the Russians to the last Ukrainians. So he says atleast give us all the weapons that we need if we are the one doing the fighting and dying

some speculation from Ukrainian media that : “Moskva could have been carrying two nuclear warheads designed to be fitted to its P-1000 'carrier killer' missiles”. … when it sank

2022 May Day is around the corner. Hopefully no one is going to do anything stupid just to have a worthy parade. Not the same vibe as the one in 1945, with Marshal Zhukov riding his white horse and the Polish-born Marshal Rokosovsky riding a black horse leading the parade. With Red army soldiers carrying the Nazi battle standards upside down and throwing them at Stalin’ feet. when the war started in Feb, as someone living in Canada for decades, I almost choked on my latte when I heard of de-nazification. Made no sense and sounded like a made up thing on spot. But I forgot that how steeped it must have been in Russian history, and how it might resonate.

i would have thought the inverse … that folks would be happy that they would roll those into slightly longer duration given the opportunity. The timing would never be perfect but they got to start somewhere

In the Lights Out book about GE, it was said that Jack Welch had dismissed it as joie de vivre when confronted by his folks about questionable behaviour of some GE higher ups at work

Is this a joke ? I thought Charlie Rose lost his job as part of the #metoo movement

New season of Billions is a disaster. Nothing to do with the great actor playing Prince vs. Axe. Just the story telling has down the drain big time. For instance i don’t give a damn about Wendy’ book and how it relates to anything. Sounds more like a made up arc so that she does something. And everything else looks like a fictional series of encounters where everyone is trying to show off how high IQ they are. the high point for me was Chuck making reference to President Field Marshal Paul von Hindenburg.

“Super pumped” took inspiration from the book of the same title from NY Times journalist. Fairly in line with the book. Then the question would be how accurate was the book. I am “east coaster” and until late 2018-19 didn’t even know how Travis looked like in person, I imagine someone on the West Coast probably had good idea how eccentric or not he was

Dinar United is the only airline that actively involved in procurement of the supersonic commercial jets aiming for revenue-flight sometimes late in the decade but more likely early 2030s. I don’t know about their customer related KPI, but I can say that post-Covid they have been one of the most active in thinking about the future and how they want to shape it with their product offering etc. Usually that compliment goes to Delta Airlines. here is an artistic representation of that future.

I have read this book few years ago. It was an interesting read as I was following Uber drama in its latter years, with Softbank, when Dara joined in, IPO etc. The book ofcourse starts 5-6 years prior to that, so even better. There is also an HBO show on its on Crave with the samename, currently at episode 6, which is super entertaining. Super Pumped: The Battle for Uber: Isaac, Mike: 9780393652246: Books - Amazon.ca

Any military conflict that starts without clear purpose is doomed to fail. "The political object is the goal, war is the means of reaching it, and means can never be considered in isolation from their purpose." Carl Von Clausewitz.

Maybe nothing to stop them logistically on paper taking off from the Baltic states, but the same God of War that weighed in with a punishing judgement on the Ukrainian-Russian war and sided with Kiev can quickly change its mind. That balancing act that keeps everything together when one sides goes too far beyound their critical mass. General Mud/Winter sided against the force of mon empereur in 1812, sided against the Wehrmacht in 1941, and finally donned an Ukrainian uniform in 2022 sided against the Kremlin itself, but may quickly change its mind. Russian Winter - Wikipedia The Ottomans faced theirs "balancing act" in the siege of Malta and Vienna at the height of their power as they overstrech themselves. No one knew it at the time. A third siege of Vienna few decades later would have probably revealed that the emperor has no clothes. Kremlin just revealed that the emperor has no clothes. It is better for NATO not too overstrech and "mark" the limits of its power. The illusion of power is stronger than the need to show it.