Xerxes

Well said SD, though it would be even more interesting if the gas station had no nukes, taking out that extreme left-tail events, that might get realize in unexpected ways. Than it would be just be economics without the Mad Max post-script.

I am diligent reader of The Economist for more than 15 years. I guess I subscribe to their world view. I like the quality of their articles. As someone who is originally from middles east I found their analysis to be spot on. Extrapolating that into other regions that they cover, my assumption is that they are spot on as well I subscribe to businessweek twice only in 15 years. The second time this year and I can only one find article (if any) worth reading. I hate their visuals too. now funny enough I love Bloomberg TV, so something is amiss when it goes to paper. I used to sneak in my town’ library for Barron’ and WSJ. I like their work but with Covid paper copies are gone. I do maintain a digital Barron’ subscription.

West has no problem dealing with mass murderers (Mao, Stalin etc). Issue is when the mass murderer becomes a toxic asset, (I.e. when the lack of positive optics outweighs the very long negative tangible ledger of bad deeds.) Putin has reached that level by himself walking into it. I am afraid aside for the security establishment (which is as toxic as him) there is no power base strong enough to do a palace coup. The security establishment owns Russia, much like the Revolutionary Guards in Iran. The sanctions will only increase their power. so i am of the mind that Putin will be around still for a long while. Even if he “retires” he will be the paramount leader. The perpetual system that provides to the security establishment needs him as much he needs them. Going after oligarch and playboys was symbolic but at the end they are marginals.

As I said in my other post, few pages ago, United States would have no (ethical) problem droping 20 atomic bombs (if it had 20) on Japan until the Japanese race was fully eradicated, or unconditional surrender tendered. It is U.S. that set unconditional surrender as the basis of negotiation. Lemay had no problem setting napalms in Tokyo, burning 200,000 Japanese alive. Not that the Japanese were any better. The point is there are no saints anywhere. We will do what we think is needed and write up the narrative after. Few years later, McArthur was planning to drop 40-50 atomic bombs in Manchuria to knock out the supply lines feeding North Korea, and probably would have if he was not fired by Harry Truman. In Vietnam (a small country), they dropped more tonnage than what was dropped in Japan and Germany (or so the legend goes). ---- do you believe United States would do any of the above against the dominant non-Asian rival in the hearland of Europe. The war cry at home in WW2 to the very end was "Kill the Japs", even as the bulk of U.S. war effort was spend against Germany. That story sold better. Lemay, Westmoreland and others like them at the end of the day were instruments of death unleashed by the White House. PS: for clarity, the B-52 bombing runs were ran directly by LBJ from the White House and not controlled directly by Westmoreland himself. Nonetheless, he was the ruling “overlord” upholding a corrupt Saigon regime in the south, fighting a war for who knows what. Sounds a bit like Russia in Ukraine … which actually sadly makes more sense than U.S. in Vietnam

For clarity, I will take United States everyday over any and all alternatives. That country and its idea have done far more good than any other superpower at the peak of their prime. But I am also fair and have no problem in calling out BS when I see it (or at least try to be)

On the topic of war crimes or not. There is no point arguing. This is like shorting a good short against a rising market (public sentiment). It doesn’t pay to swim against the current. From my point of view, Putin, Rumsfeld, Cheney, Bin Salman, are cut all from the same cloth. Blood thirsty men bent on domination. The middle two are born in the U.S. so we classify them as “ambitious men” or if we want to be very extreme about them we would say “very ambitious men with great political acumen”. But never as what truly they are. no one answered my question from pages ago: are General Lemay and General Westmoreland to be considered as war criminals. If not why not ? They had one thing in common, they fought wars against Asians.

I don’t believe Biden got emotional and let loose the “Putin must go”. He is smelling blood and like any other good politician he is positioning for that eventuality … and working on this re-election campaign at the same time. the job was left to his state secretary to give the formal government position.

Message from Kim. I am here too on a different note Shoigu (Russian defense minister) had disappeared for more than 15 days, only to re-appear briefly yesterday, and then today the word is that he had an heart attack. I would too if my armies (my raison d’être) was melting around me

War is over !! waste of a beautiful tiger

Well done Spek !!

Reading your first paragraph I am not sure where the disagreement is. Except that natural gas is a question for Western government to solve and not NATO. As for your second paragraph, let’s be clear on definitions. “military intervention” for me means just that: no-fly-zone, bombing Russian positions etc, which you said you are also against, which is where I am standing too. I got no problem with re-painted Mig-29 being sent under the radar to Ukraine. But that is not called a NATO military intervention. So again don’t see any disagreement, except for definitions. on third paragraph, I am glad

Just imagine how off Russian intelligence was about Ukraine, and how off their perceived view of Russia’ national security could be … that completely deranged view, amplified by sanctions, and the need to not back down would be the deciding factor to go the tactical-nuke or not

fully agree. Donesz were just pawns in Putin’ hybrid war. Even he didn’t want to annex them. But just to keep them forever in state of limbo.

How many people who are posting on this thread have actually lived in a country at war or one that has been invaded. Or served in the military ? having an ice-cream in NYC while cheering for the invasion of Iraq or watching it unfold in 2003 doesn’t count “as living in a country at war”

i don’t think anyone here has said they should lay down their arms or anyone here disrespected them. I think people in this thread need to stop thinking in binary terms. Right now both sides (Russian & Ukrainian) are just gathering as much bargaining chip as they can even as they exhaust themselves on the battlefield, so that they got the most bargaining chips when the talk restart. But at some points both sides need to give in. What they will give or not is up to them. For instance if Zelenski says no formal recognition of Crimea, well guess what war continues, even if Russia is depleted it will just not end. If there is no mechanism to safeguard Ukraine’ safety against the wolves than that won’t work for Ukraine either. I.e de-militarization is non-starter. as far as Afghanistan is concerned, we empowered ISI, funnelled into it Saudi money (along with Bin Laden) to wage their jihad along Stingers (which came down some years later). But I don’t recall U.S Air Force flying sorties against Soviet positions. if what you are saying is that World War 3 is worth having for Ukraine. Then the answer is no. I am sorry but it is not. Everything short of that vortex that will push our insane leaders to do insane things. I ll remind everyone that the Soviet almost went nuclear early 1980s because they mistook a NATO exercise for the real thing. Just because they themselves had simulated a real pre-emptive nuclear strike during an excerise. Nothing to do with Ukraine. Just like World War One was not worth having because Austria-Hungry decided to punish Serbia by an invasion. and of course WW2 is just a by-product of the first war. frankly this current war is doing more damage to Russia than the Soviet-Afghan did in 10 years. At least that was amortized.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60859337.amp Russian warship destroyed in occupied port of Berdyansk, says Ukraine

Often it is the aggregate of small things that changes the course of the war. The battle at the airport in the early days of the war (already been a month!) was probably instrumental as well as Zelensky’s initial appearance. It ceased to be “special operation” for average Russian troops and general staff the moment that initial onslaught failed. it is clear that the Russian army does not want to fight this war *cough* special operation. There is funeral of a Russian read-admiral (I think) on YouTube. He was born in Ukraine and died fighting for Kremlin. You can imagine how conflicted everyone is. Shooting brothers and sisters. Russian killed 20,000 people during the siege of Grozny. No one bat an eye.

Mao is probably responsible for 30 million death give or take 5 million. Not mention keeping Pyongyang on a life line when his “volunteers” crossed the Yalu River sent back the Americans south of the 38th Parallel. PRC & US were in state of war for more than 20 years from the Korean War till mid-1970s: Were Kissinger and Nixon wrong to go there and break bread with the mass murderer and formally recognize China and dump Taiwan. No. it made sense. The stakes were MUCH higher, than what happened 20 years ago.

Was General Lemay responsible for war crimes. If not why not ? Was General Westmoreland responsible for war crimes. If not why not ? There are no saints. I am for one glad that NATO stepped in and stopped Serbia. But guess what, 25 years is not today. And Serbia did not have nukes and Russia was not strong enough than to protect it.

the security camera footage at the beginning of the clip showing the Russian tanks rolling in looks like something like the movie Seven Samurai, when the bandits walk in.

I am not sure I understand this comment about “those pushing theories” or whatever that suppose to mean. People in Mariupol got to do what’a right for them. No one knows that better than themselves. Not even Zelensky and certainly not people who are “pushing theories” behind the safe keyboards. when we are talking (at least me) i am talking is at Zelenski level. And this is not a theory nor a movie. His decisions will change the course of history. I bet he didnt know that 12 months ago, back in spring of 2021, the immense weight that he would be carry on his shoulders. Are we really surprised about the kangaroo tribunal being set up, given that Biden had said Putin is war criminal. There is always tit for tat, and this is not a theory.

Greg sorry what is MSM. I have seen this few times. Do you mean MSNBC?

@changegonnacome admitingly I think most of us (me anyways) had our central tenet of belief turned upside down when it comes to Russian military in 2022. NATO reigns supreme, while the emperor has no “conventional” clothes (except for 6,000 km/h Dagger and other Doomsday machines). Even the massive $600 billion FX/gold didn’t help it if there was no market to trade FX. I think there is possibility sometimes from now, that this war will be seen as a trap set for Putin by the globalists with poor Ukraine as a bait. Once Putin walked in …. “Look at the crumbs on his jacket. He did it !!”

If we are doing analogies I ll go with V2, in terms of being fast making it invincible. The hypersonic dagger goes as fast as 6,000 km per hour. God that is fast ! This was just a opportunity to test it without its nuclear warhead. another Russian doomsday weapon that is scary (it’s name escapes me) is a nuclear torpedo that detonates near coastal era, unleashing a tsunami …. Or so the legend goes ! there is yet another one which is fully classified. But we have a picture.