Xerxes

Congrats @RedLion you got lots of hands on work but that is the fun part !

How about Montreal, Canada. Just try to dodge the smog. No beach though.

Certainly. That said we are just having conversations, shooting different scenarios, challenging different points of views, going down the rabbit hole for the hell of it etc. if you want to be absolutely factual, than 90% of what has been said in this thread is mostly speculation and “what ifs” and throwing in stuff from recent and past history. I dare say, this thread itself is a piece of history in some ways, capturing the different points of view, different biases, etc as events unfolded over now 450+ or so days.

On the cluster munitions, the view that Ukraine can cleanup their own land, after the fact so it is their choice to use or not is based on the view that Ukraine will be able to eject +180,000 Russian troops from its territory by force or through treaty. Another way to think of it, if they are unable to eject all Russians (very highly plausible scenario), these weapons are really intended for Ukraine to “scorched earth” what it cannot have. And U.S. DoD can finally clear its inventory and release some constrained cash flow on paper to the delight of its accountants. Got to tidy up that DoD balance sheet. —— In any case, the Wagner episode has shown the cracks in the Kremlin regime, it is no surprise that Biden administration is leaning into it hard. Got to lean in, and lean in until something breaks. The old man wants its legacy. Definitely above my pay grade.

@Castanza Kennedy and this Russian guy, who thankfully was not a complete idiot like the overexcited “patriotic” General Lemay https://amp.theguardian.com/science/2017/oct/27/vasili-arkhipov-soviet-submarine-captain-who-averted-nuclear-war-awarded-future-of-life-prize

yeap. And so did Joseph Stalin, the non-Russian leader of the Kremlin. Russian national interest does not equal what is good for Russian people. It does however reflect what is good for the Kremlin and the elitist. who am I to argue with Sir Winston anyway ? in any case, on Pregovign ‘ case, I think the CNN interview with Bill has it right. His connection to Africa is paramount for “Russian national interest” or however you might want to call it.

….. but perhaps there is a key. That key is Russian national interest” ~ Sir Winston concludes after making the quote the quote came about or after the signing of Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact in 1939

Here are some infamous quotes from Sir Winston. Most of which we need to pretend to not know in this day and age. https://amp.theguardian.com/theguardian/2002/nov/28/features11.g21

No need to be puzzled John. This is infact highly consistent. "Russia is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma" ~ Sir Winston Churchill

^^^ my gut feeling/hope is that Ukraine does know what it is doing (somewhat) and US intelligence has credible information that it knows what it’s doing otherwise they wouldn’t have transferred or ……the reverse of that is that US intelligence has credible info how bad is the ammunition shortage in the offensive that they are betting the house and lean in hard. Either war, signing or not signing the ban, this is a new low. But then again it is what it is in what is becoming fast a zero sum game Edit: meaning it has not nothing to do with Russian hitting that low first, this would have happened because they want to make the Ukrainian offensive successfully and clear the battlefield

Looks like cluster weapons are green lighted to transfer to Ukraine as of today. Word on the street is that the US deputy defence point man himself was in Kiev to deliver the goodies Oops wrong picture. That is Rumsfeld in 1983 in Baghdad fuelling the Iraqi war machine against against Iran. The same Rumsfeld that got so cute with this unknown-unknown mumbo jumbo when the Bad Guys list was updated: Bad Guys circa 1991: USSR, Iran, Saruman, Sauron, Gollum, Saddam

If I am not mistaken some of that Russian hydrocarbon piped through Ukraine is refined and used by Ukrainian military fighting Kremlin’ war machine … the irony in that to think of it, this is probably to put pressure on the pro Russian states (I.e Hungary etc)

I feel that Pioneer is more advance than Occidental in its “capital return” program, with its variable dividend on top of base-dividend. For now Occidental is still in de-leveraging mode with the preferred. If we can call it de-leveraging.

Looks interesting … I need a good book on that industry. For so long, I have heard of the glorious march of Altria (valuation x) but with no context

I am happy to report that I had zero buy/sell transactions in Q2. And barely one in Q1. My aggregate H1 return is 14% or so.

Been watching the WSJ documentary on Wagner: - great documentary (WSJ rocks) - I found the comment about “Kremlin could not be reached for comments” hilarious - given the boss extensive network explained in this documentary, I am thinking he may not actually be “dead man walking” … at least not in the short term ====Warning: if you are a westerner based in North America and/or Europe, living the dream, you may find this following comment disturbing. Apologies in advance. Perhaps actually don’t read it==== - Wagner is basically a modern age version of British East India Company. Without the benefit of existing 200 years ago, which allowed its Western glorification compound faster than facts !

happy birthday champ !! all the best

A lot changed in the past several decades, yet much remains the same: concerns about the economy and the geopolitics Time magazine cover page in Feb 1984 and March 1984; doom and gloom couple of years later Chernenko died making way for Gorbachev and the economy did just fine

thanks for posting. I vividly recall that event when it happened. That said, I am not a fan of this specific video because (1) it was produced recently with recent events in mind (I.e Wagnor) “I.e hey let’s make a video where Wagnor gets destroyed” (2) I was never fan of non-historians writing up stuff into short clips and throwing on YouTube. I prefer work that was written back then, and not produced now because of the connection to Ukraine War. Two books comes in mind, one of which was cited on Aviation Week. Shown below. Now published. I have not read another focus specifically on Russian engagement in Syria. I have not read. https://www.amazon.ca/Operation-Aleppo-Russias-War-Syria/dp/0992945828

indeed. But that craziness provided opportunity for the individuals to buy the stock well below book value and substantially.

I was thinking that it was a fake ad on FB using her credentials and face

my pleasure. I finished reading the book. It was an incredible read. I think all of us read The Prize (most of us) this book weaves into the world of traders and who kept adapting as macro picture changed. I have heard a lot of Glendora, Marc Rich, Glasenberg, the commodity trader Andrew Hall at Citigroup and his oil trades, the rivalry between Xtransa and Glencore on the sought after coal assets, this brings all together. makes me wanted to listen Glencore’ investor day for fiscal 2020, when the virus start the spread