Xerxes

I added at 205, again at 195 and am glad to see I don’t need to add at 185 and go straight to 175

Just to understand what is being explained : Is the opportunity for FFH to liquidate it’s current bond portfolio with a capital gain as yield crater or is the opportunity for them locking at higher rate on corporate bonds due to widening spread ? Or both

Side question : How much of the $40B portfolio can they realistically deploy if they see good names ? With indiscriminate selling I would think they wouldn’t have to “try to hard” to find investing opportunities like in the past. I understand their need to buyback some of the minority positions, recap the insurance side to take advantage of the hard market and maybe buy back shares with left overs take priority; but all these are being funded through corporate earning. Correct ?

It would be the ultimate letdown if the deflation hedges don’t produce meaningful results.

Wasn’t able to catch it when it opened 22% down. But caught it I think as 10% down.

At $10.95, trade with a huge discount to BV. But I am guessing things will get worse before they get better.

I added to BRK position today at 1.2 BV. I am guessing the BV is currently overvalued as the dip in AAPL + BAC in Q1 hasn’t hit the book yet. So maybe I am actually buying at a higher premium than I think.

I was at the AGM last year, I recall the team had to do a lot of explaining for FAH performance I am eager to see what they will say in AGM this year with share price down so much. Incidentally the Letter is out this weekend

I think like options, these hedges have time premium, and with just couple of years left, that premium has mostly collapsed. Said differently, the downturn needs to be far severe today, to get a homerun, then had it happened say 6 years ago.

From what i have seen, his pattern has been on 'media-off' from fall till Q4 results. Then a frenzy of discussion and interviews till next fall.

I think it is just due to lack of inflows funds into EM with EM being out of fashion as whole; and nothing to do with FFH management. i am very content with the discount. Have been buying since 2017. i think it is one of those investment, that once inflows to EM picks up some years from now, the same folks that refuse to buy it at current depressed prices would willing to pay 1.5x book. And i like the fact that the volatility of IIFL (it being mark to market) creates discount opportunities in the stock, with the private holdings acting as a dampener or a floor, when FIH stock falls.

Petec, i heard Brookfield as well when i was listening to the conference call. search the release and there was nothing there. putting my conspiracy theorist hat on: i believe Prem might have blurted that out, because he was thinking about it, and he was thinking about it because something is in the works with Brookfield that is not public yet. i figured that the Airport unknown buyer in India might have been a BAM related/affiliated entity. Makes sense given all the talks that Bruce has been doing about India's opportunity today given the current financial crisis. But then again he was not talking about the Airport he was talking about Seaspan when he mentioned Brookfield.

BTW the FFH tab of your excel is a work of art

Viking Thanks for the posting. When i added up the gain on the IIFL family capital gains from close of the year through today, it comes to $187 million, which is what you have. But that gain belongs to all IIFL shareholders and not just FIH's 150 million shares. Did you make that adjustment ? Or is #shares shown on column Q is number of share owned entirely by FIH ?

One interesting thing to note about FFH' equity portfolio is that it has very low cross asset correlation between its major tent poles. What does Blackberry, Eurobank, Toys R Us and Seaspan have in common (aside their common shareholder) ? .. nothing, in fact serving very different industries and often very focused geographical location in some cases.

Toys R us was bought for $300 million in early 2018. 2-3 years later, i imagine that at the very least this might have gained some value, given that it was bought at distress price. i think that would make it contender for 3rd spot as illiquid as it is.

i am glad i do not own Recipe but glad that i own it diluted through FFH. And i can definitely see some of the MTY owned entities (Thai Express, Arahova) more or less empty all the time. yet, Allo-mon-coco, the breakfast joint, also owned by MTY is PACKED !!!! i think for sit-ins the shift is really toward breakfast places. On Recipe side, the only one that i care to use is The Keg + Harveys now and then.

Top of my head, i recall FFH ownership was around +35-40% based on common stock (not counting warrants). Significant ownership, yet bizarrely one that is being marked to market as oppose to being under equity method. I wonder with APR being folded in and an even larger ownership in common stock, if FFH would need to switch the way it accounts for the newly created Atlas Corp. Said differently, is it more advantageous for them to continue to mark to market (capturing the rising valuation) or capture their portion earnings (which would lag the rising valuation). i understand that the accounting treatment is not done on a whim, but given that FFH public commitment has been a 15% return on equity, and they have been lagging, they do have an incentive to do what they can to capture the "value" into their book value earlier rather (market to market) than later (through equity method earning).

I would just add that Fairfax Financial's ownership in both Recipe Limited + Resolute Forest is accounted through equity method as FFH has a large ownership of both companies. So their stock movement quarter to quarter is not marked to market. But FFH percentage of their equity income is. Unrelated saw this earlier this week on Recipe: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-prem-watsa-hoped-to-revive-a-restaurant-giant-but-recipe-unlimiteds/

Howdy folks, My new year resolution has been to join this board and stop being cheap (the $29 fee) and start to contribute to a great forum that I have been over-learning from. So I joined: I will add this company as well to this list of FFH's holding: AGT Food and Ingredients. It was taken private a while back. Here is an article from earlier this year on how the likes of Beyond Meat are creating more demand for AGT Foods. Unrelated to peas, the podcast talks also about how their (AGT/FFH) control of railway to the Port of Churchill present them with a nice long-term play real option (as Arctic recedes) as that is the only major railway heading that way, and IIRC Churchill is the only Arctic port on the Canadian side .. vs .. several or so on the Russian side. https://business.financialpost.com/commodities/agriculture/peas Here is the CEO on podcast with the Canadian Club of Toronto that I had found to be super interesting. You will find many other interesting podcasts well. https://player.fm/series/series-2416203/murad-al-katib-president-and-ceo-agt-food-and-ingredients-inc