Red Lion

So lower rates and lower valuations on the horizon you think? Or did I misread this?

Wow.

Like the USA and Canada? Or you mean in the EU or in Asia?

So my stock picking hobby may not be such a bad thing after all!

I’ve had a similar realization, and it makes me wonder if I should just stack my money in s&p500 and go spend the next 30 years drinking Mai tais on the beach. It doesn’t help that I’ve massively outperformed the past few years, likely just providing confirmation bias.

Sold FG which just went long term a few months ago. And bought back my $50 calls. Like most of my other recent sales, this was not a value call, but just raising capital for renovations on a private real estate investment.

I experimented with a trade several years back where you went short on both long and short etf’s and then tried to keep them balanced to try to capture the time decay, don’t remember exactly what happened but I think I closed out with a small profit.

You would have all the same parties that don’t need the debt to provide a good absolute return. insurance companies and banks which are earning spread income. Sovereign wealth funds, social security, pension funds, etc. Up until last year, I hadn’t heard or seen regular folks talking about buying t bills or bonds or even bond funds for that matter since I was a kid.

The other side to this coin is the funny money you’re using as a measuring stick. Government deficit spending is driving more inflation, and higher rates beget higher deficits as the interest on already borrowed money continue to go up. Government deficits alone will put a lid on long term rates. And by the way most holders of treasuries are investing funny money of their own. Insurance float, bank reserves, sovereign wealth fund reserves, central banks, etc. Then there’s the almost certain reality that QT is only being performed right now to give our central bank even more firepower to do more QE at the next sign of distress. The path of least resistance on many fronts is for low rates and higher inflation. Or else a huge one time devaluation at some point in the future. I don’t see why a huge on time devaluation is more likely or preferable to a gradual inflating away of our debt problem. Yet meaningfully higher long term rates all but guarantee that the federal government ends up printing money (possibly even directly by act of congress) which results in the huge devaluation / loss of reserve status. I just don’t see it. And I don’t have a phd in economics so maybe I’m not totally wrong.

I hate to be the one to say this but there’s unskilled labor and then there’s unskilled labor. the people on welfare, and I’m speaking as an employer, are fucking useless. That’s why they’re on welfare. They should go to work certainly, but I don’t want them on my payroll. I’ll take the Central American immigrants that work until midnight on my construction projects after spending a week doing full time work at their day job. I think there’s clearly a cultural element at play here, and I’m sure not all immigrants are created equal, but they’re the best workers by a country mile in my neck of the woods.

You should come check out California. I feel like the immigrants are the only ones working. Often under the table for cash. Mostly these are Central American immigrants. It’s funny that you bring up Ukrainian carpenters, we have had an influx to the Sacramento area, and I’m looking to hire one that does the most incredible custom parquet floors I’ve ever seen. All of this is anecdotal, it’s funny to me that we are seeing such different sides of the coin here both living in progressive hotbeds. I’m all for more legal immigration of people that want to work, have kids, learn English, and pay their taxes. This system we have encourages illegal immigration, tax fraud, and population migration to/from the “sanctuary” states. Still we need immigrants, and unskilled ones at that as long as they’re willing to work. The amount of home health care and trades workers needed in this country over the next decades requires lots of unskilled immigration, and demographics require it too unless Gen Z wants to start working real jobs and procreating (both unlikely).

This is my investment philosophy. It’s very rare that we will do anything but the path of least resistance. At this point it means massive deficit spending, above 2% inflation, and real wage gains.

I would buy OTM LEAPs on this etf. Rightly or wrongly. Based on my theory that value stocks usually underperform and for short periods of time sometimes stomp the markets.

OWL, ARES, BX. Perhaps not at these prices but they are good cap light dividend paying business models.

So all the comments in this thread beg the question…is it time to buy duration TIPs? If we expect cuts plus increased inflation it seems they could do well. I’ve personally put most of my money into the longest duration TIPs of all, residential rental housing.

Lmfao

Kauai. Just went surfing for the first time today, and it won’t be the last.

ARES, BX, AMP, and GOOGL. all have done well for me. Would rather not sell, but I had racked up a decent size margin debt in these multiple real estate renovation projects and wanted to right myself while the markets are hot.

I bought a pack of prime grade filet mignon at Sam’s club for the same price as the last time I bought fast food for the family. It’s stupid how much prepared food costs, it used to be an area I wasted a lot of money on, but mostly just cook at home or go to the tamale lady at the corner lot.

$10 happy meals

Definitely time to start digging in again. I always considered this a low moat business so I’m not jumping the gun to jump in, but things are definitely getting interesting.

APO

Which fund is this, or personal? And is this a just an insignificant equity position when most of his allocations are in debt? These aren't rhetorical questions, but I find that sometimes following very intelligent, scholarly investors yields subpar results. I personally haven't found many actionable results from Marks' ivory tower, but that's not to say it's not likely and possible.

I almost entirely agree with your vision and I’d vote for a politician espousing these principles. It’s just that I don’t ever see our government and people accepting these needed changes. I think the most obvious and likely outcome is the inflation angle. So I’m trying to plan according to what I think is most likely rather than what I think would be ideal.

They can’t let the people know this is the plan. Otherwise they risk the reserve currency status. But I agree, how is it even possible to grow out of 120% debt to gdp without?