Red Lion

I've done this on a couple houses recently and I can vouch for the fact that it's definitely cheaper and way less hassle to just buy a brand new track home. Not that I'd want one, even though I'm a (geriatric) millennial.

I think the asset heavy alts were coming off of a more significant sell off. I definitely think ares/bx compare well (particularly with a 50/50 weighting) over a multi year period. also think owl should be in contention as far as asset light is concerned. OWL and BAM are both new to the market and BX and ARES didn’t really get hammered nearly as bad as BN/apo/kkr.

Beat me to it, I've been planning to open a position here in the near term.

Completely agreed. I couldn't care less about $1 in 2025, but if I have an ~5% forward yield and it's able to continue to grow at double digits for 5-10 years, I find that pretty attractive. At least for an alt asset manager. I'm a pretty big fan of the OWL business model and the emphasis on FRE over carry, and I think this should help it trade at a higher multiple. The most comparable models are BX, BAM, and ARES. And ARES is the most comparable in terms of emphasis on private credit. All of these trade at a richer value, have lower growth, and lower dividend yields than OWL. I'd expect that if OWL avoid a major misstep that this valuation gap will likely close over a period of time, and hopefully will be earning significantly higher FRE/dividends in 3-5 years. Obviously I love APO/KKR/BX/ARES, but I really think OWL has the most upside at these levels. EDIT: Just pointing out that all of the major alts (APO, BX, KKR, BAM, CG, ARES, etc.) have made deals to manage insurance AUM, and it appears that OWL is trying to break into the market as well. I think the smaller scale of OWL sets up some really great growth tailwinds as it won't take nearly as much to move the needle in increasing AUM/FRE/DE. Also, I'm not normally a huge believer in empire builders, but I'm excited about all the tuck in acquisitions that OWL has been pulling off to scale up its credit business. Also I love the general partner business, and I think this has helped OWL identify attractive acquisition targets in addition to being a great source of FRE in itself.

Had some cash in my 401k and added some shares of OWL.

It could work, but you’d need to craft a special plan to game the ACA subsidies. I know multi millionaires in CA that have low property taxes on their homes and make all “income” from real estate cash flows that are offset by non cash depreciation expenses. They’re able to get ACA subsidies and get close to free insurance.

I've had this thought before as well. Between the cash and dividends this should be enough for over 3 years of living expenses before selling any stock to raise capital even if you're using the S&P for all your equities.

OWL. One of the only positions I’ve added to this year.

All good points. I think it all really hinges on where you hold your assets. In a tax deferred account, T-bills, MBS, and TIPs all look pretty attractive to just sit and take a big swing at a fat pitch. It just seems like there's always a fat pitch, so unless you're investing billions of dollars there will hopefully be places to invest where one anticipates good double digit returns. When you're using them in a taxable account individual account the numbers start to look really crappy. A 5% t bill that gets taxed at 40% is basically just keeping place with inflation (if that). And bonds are even worse because you owe state tax on the interest. So if you're making 6% gross, paying 50% state taxes, and still taking credit risk, it seems like a raw deal. I feel like C- corps and tax free entities and of course governments themselves are some of the biggest holders of bonds, probably because they don't have a hugely negative tax implication. If you're in a 401k and have fully funded retirement, maybe this would be a pretty good low risk way to just live out your days. It's hard for me to see wanting to keep a long term allocation to bonds though inside a retirement account if the goal is to fund a retirement through investment returns. If the goal is to park money until you see a fat pitch it makes plenty of sense in my mind, but holding onto a bunch of bonds until the MARKET is cheap/going up instead of looking for individual investments seems overly cautious and likely to result in subpar long term returns IMHO.

Ive been seeing this position for several years now, but it seems like there's a ton of companies that have performed great, but they just don't necessarily fit into the same mold. For example APO and KKR have done great, and APO still isn't even part of the S&P500. These are just two that I've followed, but there are plenty of others on these boards that have had great success with companies that don't really make a significant contribution to the index (like FFH and JOE).

If the Cali contingent takes over we could easily see housing double from here again. In my hometown (about 3 hours from the sf Bay Area) housing is very affordable compared to the rest of the west coast, but they just finished a 59 unit “affordable housing” complex at over $700k per unit. You can buy a nice 2500 sf house for 700k in the same market. California has been playing lip service to affordable housing and infill development for at least 5 years now while the cost of replacement just keeps going higher.

That struck close to home. I’ve done that quite recently.

Isn’t this something that could be easily corrected by an act of congress? Swap out the iou’s for marketable securities and then dump them on the market? edit: Or is an act of congress even necessary? Seems like this could conceivably be executed by the treasury? Sorry for the hypothetical, I’m sure nothing like this will ever happen, but it seems like a damn good idea.

Why not just have the SS trust fund dump all of its treasuries, which will then cause financial panic with rising interest rates, then go scoop up a bunch of discounted stocks?

APO doesn't seem to need any catalysts, it's a monster.

Mounjaro is already more effective than Ozempic, but also quite expensive. These drugs are evolving rapidly into more effective (and oral) versions. But it's still mostly NVO and LLY holding most of this IP I believe. and who knows who has the upper hand. I've been a believer in this story the whole time waiting for a pullback and missing some great multi baggers. NVO/LLY are certainly sins of omission in my investing career that I regret at least once a week. I've noticed that LLY seems to have sorted out its supply chain issues on Mounjaro, which means I'm sure they're minting cash. I believe the same is true about NVO but I don't follow it as closely.

Are there put options available?

I think this is an under rated idea. it seems like many of the countries with generous social safety nets finance this at least in part with a value added tax. In the USA the democrats of the last 4-8 years want nothing but class warfare. They buy votes from non tax payers by saying “pay your fair share”. How about actually let these parasites pay a value added tax?

I don’t give a shit about dissuading charitable giving. Why should someone get a tax deduction for giving to the ACLU/NRA/PETA etc? Especially when the billionaire class (I’m talking about Warren Buffett) avoids their entire tax bill while setting up foundations that their children will benefit from for generations and then the rest of us end up paying a far higher percentage of our income/nw as a result. I feel like there’s easy middle ground here. You could cap the deductible donations at death to the same $$$ amount as the estate tax to prevent the big tax avoidance moves by gates, Buffett, Zuckerberg, etc. Edited to say that your last line is a slippery slope. Scrutinizing 501(c)(3)s to decide which ones are deductible…who does that? How does this not turn into another political endeavor getting the government involved in which non profits should actually be deductible?

Yes this. Why isn’t anyone else saying this? All the ultra wealthy are avoiding estate tax and capital gains by giving all their appreciated stock to foundations setup to push their personal agenda. I don’t think the taxes should be changed, but how much revenue would be generated by taxing “non profits” on investment income, and by reducing or eliminating the tax deductibility of contributions? A lot I’m sure.

If I’m not mistaken the 21% corporate tax rate was permanent, and would take an act of congress to increase. The pass through deduction and lower personal income tax rates would revert to pre TCJA.

More QE and lower rates and inflation.

ridiculous or not the writing is on the wall, and whoever invests in utility companies should certainly beware.

Added to OWL in my 401k with all my available cash at under $17.

Its interesting blackstone ipo’d at the top of the market in 2007, but overall it seems to increase the likelihood of a broken ipo, and not sure that really benefits a money manager in the long run.