Castanza

The year is 2045, the Johnson family is traveling to Florida for the winter. The parents thought it best that everyone take a different method of transportation to best protect the seed phrase. Enjoy the 16 hour bus ride little Timmy. The whole family is counting on you.

LOL yeah could be interesting to see how this shakes out with the news. I think TSN looks relatively cheap here. Sure, some supply chain issues still but they are chugging along. Trading at a discount to peers, but hoping it drops more with some unsavory news. Very very small starter position and something I'd like to hold long term in the Roth at a 1% position.

TSN

Yeah I’m always hesitant with these up and coming software plays. The pitch is always “look at our growth” and “we have the best in class product” then someone ends up coming along and eats their lunch. But the numbers look good overall. I’m gonna wait a bit maybe see how the next Q goes. I’m not sure we’ve seen normalized earnings yet. I want to see what competition does and if someone else brings to market a all encompassing suite how that affects DFINs sun growth. Mitek comes to mind from my past experience.

AIV, CLPR

It's under the Investment Ideas section https://thecobf.com/forum/topic/7110-fb-facebookmeta/page/95/#comment-494700

All good points Spek I think it will be a tight race to see if they can meet their goals or if they will have to raise capital. Thanks for the thoughts

Not saying there is any proof of anything nefarious, but if I were to look anywhere it would be with the Pharma companies. Government is nothing more than a proxy for corporations at this point. Could just be they are trying to cover their ass at every turn but this still is very suspect practice in my opinion. If this is the norm, that makes it even more suspect. Pfizer for example - In response to a Freedom of Information Act request, the Food and Drug Administration asked a federal judge for permission to make the public wait until the year 2096 to disclose all of the data it relied upon to license Pfizer’s Covid-19 vaccine. The FDA wanted court approval to have up to 75 years to publicly disclose this information. Shady practice, or complete ignorance on how this would be perceived. - Pfizer executive said in a hearing that they did NOT test the vaccine for effectiveness on preventing transmission. I've seen some claim this statement was criminal but I don't agree. I think it was taken a bit out of context. BUT at the same time we did have government officials saying that it would prevent transmission and urged people to get the vaccine. Negligence and lack of due diligence on their part. - When vaccines initially came out they had emergency approval. This allowed companies to be exempt from liability while covered under the Emergency Use Authorization. When the vaccines became approved they should have then been made open to liability at that point. But here is the caveat. How does a company get liability protection for a vaccine moving forward? Well according to Health Resources & Service Administration a vaccine needs to get approval from the CDC for routine vaccination in children and pregnant women. " The National Vaccine Injury Compensation Program (VICP) covers most vaccines routinely given in the U.S. For a vaccine to be covered, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) must recommend the category of vaccine for routine administration to children or pregnant women, and it must be subject to an excise tax by federal law." Not difficult to look at the data and see there is virtually ZERO need for young children to get vaccinated. So if someone dies from the vaccine or we see some down the line effects, who foots that settlement bill? Not Pfizer. CICP and VICP are tax payer funded coffers. This is the unquestionable shady imo. A quick look at history will show you it can be both, one or the other. Hell a good read over the next Omnibus Bill will show you just how many hands are in the pot and whos interests are being served. Guess this is borderline political so I'll leave it at that

Agreed, I think management needs to prove themselves over the next few quarters. I listened to the latest call and every analyst only focused on the margins getting back into the 30's. They didn't really care about the supply chain improvements or the debt repayments. Maybe that's the story with the company and the market only cares about that margin rate. Q4, Q1 will be important and give some more insight to whether or not the market is truly softening. Will also find out if management is right in the margin improvements. See a decline the next two quarters and this could really dump. Something I'll be watching for sure as this is a good coffee can idea if you can get it at a great (not good) price.

$SWK Stanley Black & Decker watcher position Anyone else look at this lately? - Inventory was over built but they are rapidly reducing and expect to be back to normal levels mid 23. - Reduced production and headcount - Company focus is reducing debt and and reach a 2x debt/EBITDA level. Paid down 3.3b in Q3 more expected Q4 - Sept cashflow positive with expected positive fcf for 4th quarter. - Should see better margins. Current low 20's expecting high 20's by Q2 23 (excludes supply chain improvements) - Targeting 35% margins by 2025 - Directors buying back shares mid 80s-90s - Trading around 10 year lows - Dividend Stalwart yielding 4+% - EPS has been revised a few times. Recently revised down from 5-6 to 4-4.5 for Q4. - Softer demand is expected near term - Production curtailment is a decision of cash generation vs softer market outlook. Due to management revising multiple times I think there is more room for pain in the next few quarters. But it seems like management is focused on the right things and have/are making necessary changes to supply chain which will pay off long-term. Definitely some headwinds.

Up 25% ytd between my Roth accounts Down 15% in Brokerage Had some good luck APTS, ATCO…have some drag MSFT…..but overall feel confident with what I own and the prices I’ve paid. Since paying off the house I’ve just been stacking cash and really trying to be patient here. Could end up being an interesting year. There is already some real gems starting to show. pain? Too early in the game to tell

It’s bound to happen at some point

Lmao “how quick can it get me there”

Lmao is it just me or are these questions just pitiful? Everyone just grasping at straws looking for nuance to extrapolate "deep" investing angles. Dude said he is hiking rates and will continue to hike. Does it need to be made any more complicated?

Good stuff right there. My wife picked some up a while ago....said it was "pretty" lmao ... her only criteria for buying liquor.

Shes only worried about mid-terms and other elections

Haha should have said “was”. But yeah post WWII much of it went out the window with the military industrial complex latching on to politicians. Only gotten worse since then. Non-interventionism is not isolationism. It doesn’t isolate on the economic side of things but adheres to not getting involved in foreign affairs. Example “Treaty of Tripoli”. Two very different things with very different long term outcomes. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-interventionism Lets go revisit what Kennedy said after the Cuban Missile Crisis. “My God what did we almost do?!” “While defending our vital interests, we must avert confrontations that force an adversary to choose between humiliating defeat and nuclear war.”

Why is this a problem of the US? Let Europe handle it. We didn't get involved in or send aid or weapons during the French Revolution or the Napoleonic Wars. This really isn't much different. Arguable even more advantageous to us because Russia isn't relevant to our economy and we won't have to make the decision of trade partner. The last thing we should be doing is spending massive amount of money on another war and exhausting our own resources. I can get behind some spending because the consequences can be contained/identified to an extent. However I am very much against un-checked spending with no end in sight which is what we have now. Non-interventionism is a core tenant of US history and our Constitution. It's served us well in the past and would serve us well now.

It was a question. You said "it's only going to get worse" AFTER giving up Ukraine. Wasn't sure what you meant as that was kind of open ended. Seems like a lot of people in general are Hell bent on wanting this to be WWIII. It's also amusing to me how people have only now decided to be appalled by war and all the shit that goes on with it. I'd be willing to bet that 90% of the people flying Ukrainian flags here in the US have not donated a single dollar to our Veterans here in the States and Canada.

GOOG

Reminds me a bit of AAPL in 2018 when everyone was freaking out. Then @rb backed the truck up.

If I'm reading this correct you are saying that Russia is on a global conquest?

Where else is ad spend going to go in the next 10 years? Advertising will be internet based for the foreseeable future. Google isn't a one product shop just saying. You want to talk about META that is entirely dependent on their two platforms and ad rev generated on them, then sure I hear you and agree. I also agree that we haven't seen a true cycle in the social media sector. - Cloud grew 37% yoy. - Search still grew at 4%. - YouTube was down 2% (vs peers? We will see). 66B Yearly users vs FB 16B and Instagram 6B. Nobody can touch YT yet. - They have 116B in cash with 63B fcf ttm. - Revenue still grew yoy.

Haven’t had time to look but how do they compare to pre crazy covid peak?