Castanza

How did you guys go about picking stocks to buy in? Members present their thesis individually then you put it to a vote?

Similar to that Gas Station Attendant/Janitor who ended up leaving the local school 5m and was worth 8m. @dealrakerthanks for the insights and stories

SMH (still not comfortable INTC), BRKb, GOOG

Added to PCYO, BRKB, MSGE, MSGS, JOE, ALCO, GOOG in the Roth

Yup I think you're right. Was contemplating hanging around and seeing if the deal gets sweetened with a special divy but with the market down again today their I'd rather not have the cash tied up. Cutting this one lose.

NTDOY, GOOG, PCYO

https://youtu.be/nbt-CsSRJl8?t=6900 Bloomberg scrambling after the dude states simple logical conclusions To the US this war is about regime change. We will cut of the heads of any snakes we find and seize opportunities. Destroying a 20b asset of Russia's while also brining EU further under our wing is a no-brainer. @UK Ukraine seems to be going into overdrive prior to winter.

I tend to have a slightly different approach when it comes to position sizing. For me it’s determined by the length of time the opportunity presents itself. I’m young so I’m not investing with a large stack of cash I’ve accumulated over decades. I’m more of a monthly budget investor. So when I see something I like, I will prioritize adding to that equity until the opportunity has reached its fruition or surpassed what I find to be a reasonable deal. I don’t stick to any certain percentages, rebalance or anything. My positions are what they are based on the opportunity that presented themselves. Some examples would have been ATCO. I added to that consistently for the better part of a year. Yes I added to core positions if I felt they were cheap. But 90% of what I would be contributing went to what I thought was the best deal. This lead to me having something like 30+% of my portfolio in ATCO. Another example was back in 2018 when I was getting my feet wet. MSFT took a big nose dive. I piled into that as well. Still holding it today. I think back then it was something like 50% of my portfolio (which wasn’t much at the time lol) One area I think a lot of investors fail in is not adding to their holdings on the way up given it’s still reasonable priced and you don’t have any other big ideas. People buy XYZ at $10 say it’s worth $16 but never buy between on the way up. One area I’m bad in is buying starter positions, then abandoning them never taking a serious position and just letting small amount flounder instead of adding to things in much more confident in that are still cheap. Diversification is nonsense if all it means to you is owning a shit ton of positions in small amounts. I like Mungers comments on that. I also try to avoid anything complex. I’ve gotten burned before when starting out and it’s just a waste of time. I’m almost never interested in some obscure company that some egg head wrote a 50 page thesis explaining how management will turn it around and it’s “deep value” because of xyz. 1. I’m not smart enough to understand that shit. 2. I don’t have the time, energy or patience to try to. 3. If you’ve gone that far you’re probably working against yourself and not being honest. Buying a stock should be EASY to justify. Something I really need to do better at is ignoring those companies/pitches more. So to sum up my ramblings. Position sizes for me are constrained/determined by the window of opportunity.

No offense but you guys saying Russia blew up its own 20 billion dollar asset to “cause a diversion” or something are crazy. The overwhelming evidence is that the US did it. Plenty of Washington insiders and even the President said they would. Either that or a pipe failure dude to something like James was saying. If you want to know who committed a crime/act then look to see who benefits. There are no longterm benefits for Russia to blow up that pipeline. But for the US they are immense. Truth will never come out.

I usually end up going all ground except for the tenderloins with venison. I haven't tried the jarred meat yet but I have heard it's good. Maybe I'll consider it this year if I have time. Nothing more tender than a first year doe fed on alfalfa. Free range 100% organic right there. I'm to the point where I'm taking kill orders nowhere to put them currently so unless I see a wall hanger I don't think I'll be taking anymore this year.

Just got a side of beef processed. Came out to 2.65/lb Hunting licenses are $20 General + $17 Archery + Doe tag $7. Got a doe this past Saturday for Archery. Price of meat goes down the more you game harvest. If you process it yourself you're looking at $.30-.50 cents per pound. If you pay to get it done you're right around $1-1.50/lb. I don't think I'll have to buy meat for at least two years at this point.

@Spekulatius You might find this interesting. I think you said you liked Karp in another thread.

From what I’ve seen with lawncare is the cottage industry really taking off. If you look on Forums, Reddit, YouTube etc. There is a big moving away from the big brands and more into specialized products/stuff promoted by individuals. Probably doesn’t capture the whole market though and tbh I’m not even sure the breakdown for SMG between consummer/commercial. I didn’t get past the balance sheet and outlook

What's the thesis on this? Balance sheet doesn't look good, Sales down 60% Cashflow going negative? Is the divy sustainable? Seems like it could drop a lot more.

Some things I found interesting but doesn't prove anything and could very well just be coincidence. To me this makes more sense than "Putin is crazy therefore he did it." I'm not even sure if he is crazy. He's evil for sure. But there hasn't been a ton of irrational moves strategically speaking (outside of underestimating Ukrainian resistance). Plus saying XYZ Country's leader is crazy is a classic US tactic. Everyone we've faced in the last 75 years has been "Crazy". But like Xerxes said, we don't know for sure and it very well could have been Russia, Poland, or US. 1.) US BaltOps June 22. Goal: Bring underwater demolition and mine hunting capability to the Baltic Sea via US Navy - This takes place in Bornholm. Which is an island located directly between the two pipeline explosions. 2.) US Navy Warfare had amphibious assault ships within 30km from both pipelines prior to demolition (within torpedo range) US Spy planes were also in the area around the same time. 3.) Poland has Naval base just to the to south that holds their Naval Combat Engineer Battalion 4.) Joe Biden has said multiple times that he would shutdown the Nordstream Pipelines 5.) Russia would happily export Gas and Oil (as they have been). They still need funds and getting sanctions lifted is still a goal of theirs. 6.) US has been involved in sabotaging Russia Pipelines in the past via CIA under Reagan. The CIA also warned Germany of a pipeline attack prior to it happening. So it's not outside the playbook. Q: Why would Russia blow up a pipeline that they could simply turn off? Leverage over Germany is now gone. Q: Why would Russia destroy a 20B pipeline that was created so they could avoid transit fees of other lines?

It's already been done in 2020 "Call of Duty: Warzone's Verdansk map is heavily inspired by real-life locations, buildings and regions of Donetsk, Chernobyl and other Ukrainian landmarks."

Four possibilities in my opinion. 1.) Russia 2.) CIA/SEALs 3.) GROM 4.) Greta Thunberg

Do we know for sure who did it yet? Why would the Poland Defense Minister say it was the US? Why would Biden vow to "shut it down"?

Wife and I went out to a local place last week. Waitress told us there was a mandatory 18% gratuity that goes to everyone. Then she said they would appreciate a tip on top. I jokingly asked if there was a discount for mixing your own drinks and got a stone cold look lol...I mean c'mon...40% on top of the already raised prices is nuts.

Yeah their men are certainly demoralized with many asking to leave now that their contracts were up; only to have them indefinitely extended. With winter approaching you would think Russia is looking to entrench, secure and reinforce the lines (similar to Crimea prior to invasion). That would give them some time to "train" new recruits and somewhat organize their Supply Chain. If that's the course of action you can probably expect Ukraine to turn on the jets now to cause as many disruptions as possible and if winter brings a pause I'm sure Ukraine will happily spend the next few months targeting the supply lines Russia tries to rebuild from afar. @XerxesWar on the Rocks is still the best podcast covering this imo. @no_free_lunch Nobody said the US weapons weren't helping. I mean it was pretty clear on day one when tanks were getting destroyed every hour by their SOF teams. You're very emotional on this...take a breath. Nobody here is an expert, nobody here is rooting for Russia. I think oversight does matter because The Constitution does matter to me and it should to others. It shouldn't be thrown out the window because there is a crisis. In fact it's designed for crisis. For the past 15 years Americans have been complaining about getting stuck in wars. Well this is how it happens. We don't need to be involved in another war that drags on for 10+ years while providing billions upon billions. No Congressional approval for attacks (Nord 1 & 2), no/little oversight with funds. You now have hundreds of thousands of Russians being drafted that presumably don't want to be who are going to be like lambs to the slaughter. It seems to me that an offramp is the preferred solution. My brother and sister are both adopted from Russia, I have distant relatives from Poland, Czech and likely Ukraine. I have work collogues who joined Ukrainian Foreign Legion Forces and many who have family affected. There's about two dozen other wars going on around the world too. At the end of the day you have a lot of people on both sides of the conflict who don't want to be there. Your "vibe" is that if someone isn't 100% behind Ukraine and willing to commit whatever to the "cause" without regard or abandon then somehow they are supporting Russia and Hitler 2.0....that's nonsense. So fly your Ukrainian flag. Send some money and get your name written on a mortar round. The US is only interested in supplying Ukraine because we want our cannon fodder buffer zone back between NATO and Russia. If we truly were over there because we cared about "independence" then we would have been in/done more for Hong Kong, Catalonia and the dozen other countries/regions looking for independence from whatever warlord, ruler, dictator and politician that rules over them. https://antiwar.com/ https://archive.ph/p85GD

https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelshellenberger/2022/09/27/us-blew-up-russian-gas-pipelines-nord-stream-1--2-says-former-polish-defense-minister/ Well if the US did do this it’s foolish. Likely was as Biden said he was going to shut it down multiple times. One it hurts Germany immensely. Two you’ve now committed an act of war without congressional approval and made US infrastructure a target.

Any thoughts on expected divy rate post net debt target? It's interesting and I own a bit along with VET but it's not something I want to hold long term without significant return of capital. Agree with Spek that energy is something you definitely don't marry

Yeah that's certainly a possibility and was my thought when I first sold the shares. Time will tell, but either way If you have a 5+ year time horizon buying now at 14 is not a bad price.

Exactly, it's the same things as Afghanistan. They are wars that cannot be won so it's an automatic loss when the US leaves even though the enemy was getting their teeth pushed in day after day. I mean I don't really agree with either. Afghanistan was justifiable to an extent, but the stay was way past it's expiration date. They were political/cultural wars which were doomed from the beginning. How can anyone define winning or losing at this point? Comparing Russia's involvement to their current onslaught to Afghanistan is like comparing a fish to a deer. Zero similarities. What we are seeing Russia do has not been seen since WWII. Everyone is flying blind on what happens next.

I’m not saying it’s an advantage or disadvantage. Historically it’s been both. Russia is in the process of changing their strategy. They realized that the tank centric 2000 man regiment is not a flexible. Where Ukraine has adopted the US tactics of smaller unit tactics while sending out the SOF teams as purely tank and armored vehicle hunters. It was very effective. My guess is Russia will take on a similar approach moving forward. Also many people fail to differentiate between the type of soldiers Russia has. When They got overrun last week it was because they left their flank exposed and the only troops there (according to experts) likely internal troops that don’t have a primary function of combat.