Castanza

ATCO....Seems like there is a free $1.50 on the table right?

By no means an expert but this is my elementary view that's probably riddled with holes. - Gold looks attractive if you're holding mostly anything but USD - Price of Gold relative to USD shows demand/scarcity of the dollar - Reserve currency doing its thing. At the end of the day countries owe debt in USD and the US has the most mature bond market out there. - You're right though, if the dollar gets too strong compared to other currencies I guess it's possible we could see write-downs by countries? (Idk I'll leave that to the experts)

So not disproven and the ones disproving it also could have incentive to “disprove it”. We won’t ever know either way. Fact: Anytime there is government funding there is fraud and usually lost if it. We’ve seen it during Katrina, we’ve seen it with other Hurricane aid, we’ve seen it with other foreign disaster relief, we’ve seen it with Covid Stimulus, we’ve seen it in other wars we’ve been involved in. Fact: Ukraine has a history of corruption. And by history I mean within the last 10 years. Ukraine has their Oligarchs too. Fact: There is very little oversight

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-26/biden-team-monitoring-markets-amid-volatility-white-house-says Wonder what they’ve got up their sleeves? Biden Bucks just in time for the mid-terms?

You made this claim yet it never actually happened "More than 50% of the aid provided to Ukraine is in the form of weapons and weapons systems, or money that goes right back to the domestic manufacturer to produce the weapons or weapon systems for Ukraine. It is hard for a lot of this stuff to just go poof." And your source is? ^ Well there were multiple news agencies to report that over the past few months. Ukraine had former soviets sitting at the top of their government what 8 years ago? They have the VP's crackhead son sitting on a board for their largest company. They have a 31/100 rating on the corruption scale. I'd say truth probably lies somewhere in the middle. But I'd day there is a good amount of corruption there. Simple from a historical standpoint regarding wars I think it's naïve to think otherwise. Look at Cheney during the early years in Iraq. If it happens in the US, you can be damn sure it's happening in Ukraine. So yeah, with everyone saying how little oversight there is you can bet a large percentage of it has vanished. I think Zelenskyy seems like a pretty solid guy but who knows. I mean the guy claimed to be under constant threat and claimed to have survived multiple assassination attempts yet he didn't miss his TV time to ask for money every 3 hours. I mean he even made an appearance live for the Grammys lol War is a racket, always has been always will be. The world is more corrupt than most think.

EU in general dropped the ball. Ukraine is the only ground force large enough to actually defend against an attack. Luckily they have been getting us training since the mid 2000's. I'm not a fan of the lack of oversight there is on US funding. So far it's estimated that only 30% of money given to Ukraine by the US has actually been put towards the war effort. The other 70%? Poof My question is, how long can the west afford to fund this? Germany, Poland, France, Spain, Finland, etc. all need to step up. All of these nations have been getting training from the US for the past two decades. Time to put that to work. Again, I'm not against US support. But I don't like the lack of oversight. The US has plenty of problems right here at home and handing out money without any oversight can't go on forever.

Lines are not accepted, they're defended and then tolerated. Ukraine has no more right to exist than Russia. If you want that "right" you secure it. If you don't like your country you leave or rise up and overthrow it. All of history boils down to that. Conquer or be conquered, govern or be governed, enslave or be enslaved. Ukraine gave up it's nukes and Russia is trying to capitalize on that.

Nobody is going to guess the outcome of this war based on single battles. Winter is coming and Russia is drafting. That gives some time for training with new troops even if it's nothing but navigation and simple tactics. Entrenchment seems likely. The first snow has already fallen in Ukraine. Remember, many of our boys in Vietnam got less than their "required" 8 weeks of training. The individuals being drafted may be against the fight but when that first bullet flies past their head their allegiance will be to the man next to them and they will fight. Russia in general doesn’t have the training facilities that we have in the US. It’s typical of their military to be trained once at command. The drafted will likely be divided into prior service etc. everything going on right now is to sure of the lines for winter so that they can attempt to fix their supply issues the . Some say that Putin is grasping at straws and that this is a last ditch effort. Is it? Because if this would have been done sooner it would have been an even bigger mess to try to manage counter attacks while also onboarding a new force. This is unprecedented an nobody has seen anything remotely close since WWII. The experts are in the dark on how this will turn out. But the one certain thing is, Russia is digging in. Giving Ukraine nuclear weapons would be a mistake. It does nothing but escalate the situation. It puts those assets at risk of capture or misuse. It also makes the US a target. Remember, in 2018 Russian Nuclear subs were found just 12 miles off the US coast. How long can support from the West last? If this war drags on for years can we continue to support Ukraine? Nuclear weapons are historically used defensively, not offensively. The likelihood of use goes up if the Russian military gets routed to a point that is unrecoverable. What does Russia have to lose at this point? ... Politicians in the West should be looking for an off-ramp. Otherwise, if you're 35 and under you might want to implement a timed mile, push-up, pull-up, sit-up regiment into your weekly schedule

Immigration needs fixed for sure Also US academia ideologues also need to stop telling younger generations that having more than one child is irresponsible and reprehensible.

Yeah but you wouldn't be holding a mystery box with CCP leadership Different strokes for different folks. I'm probably overly conservative with margin. Only use it on layups that have no muck or mysteries attached. "First you borrow, then you beg" - The Old Man and the Sea

20% margined buying BABA?

Could be on sale permanently

After the infighting is done? Does it ever end? With who as the winner? Xi? He wants a more closed isolated China. His policies speak for themselves.

LOL well at least you’re honest. No there is definitely some stuff I won’t mess with (mostly engine stuff). Vehicles have gotten really complicated and require a lot of special tools. Not worth the hassle anymore. My FIL still changes his oil…in his driveway…during the winter. Lol it’s what? $20 service fee at Jiffy Lube? Haha yeah I’ve seen some of those failed boat launch vids. Understandable

You’re only as useless as your ability to search YouTube for “How To” vids

Yeah that’s understandable, but St Louis is still magnitudes better than towns between 20-80k people. And even there you will find opportunities etc. I think if you’re willing to give up on top 5 city living you probably have an idea of what to expect. You probably aren’t focused on having a 1% career etc. My neighbors are good examples. She went to U of M then Grad at Harvard. He went to University of Stanford for Mech Eng. Both are probably making close to 120k+ each. Both grew up in Chicago and come from money. But the town I live in is like 40k in pop and you can find McMansions for 250k-300k. They seemed to have loved life here. Different strokes for different folks I guess.

This is only a problem in the most expensive areas. All of the below cities are very reasonable places to live. Plenty to do, plenty of education options, plenty of entertainment and food options. I know people who live in the majority of the cities listed below and most of them have a combined income around 100k + or - 20k. All of them have homes that are probably much nicer than what you would get for 600k+ in pricey areas. Average home price in... Columbus = 240k Cincinnati = 230k Savanah = 278k Buffalo = 216k Pittsburgh = 235k San Antonio = 300k St. Louis = 177k Lexington = 285k Indianapolis = 228k The list goes on. Then you have plenty of cities like Nashville that are mid 3-400k. There was an OddLots podcast maybe two-three months ago where they discussed housing affordability and how generally it's a myth that housing is "unaffordable" in the majority of areas including tier 2 cities. Usually the divergence from the norm is a couple percent on total price.

You can't talk about everything you mentioned without discussing expectations of millennials. Personally I think their expectations are way off. You can go back and look at polls taken around the 2016 election when UBI was a hot topic. Discussions around amounts and what "normal living expenses" covers. I remember reading a few different ones but one that stuck out was how they thought it should cover going out to eat 1-2 times a week, or going to the movies 2 times a month etc. Just going from memory but I believe there was a monthly clothing budget etc. Personally, I view all of those as extras which you choose to engage in as a lifestyle choice. But it cemented imo the underpinning philosophy that Millennials largely view the world in terms of conveniences and inconveniences. How does this hinder me from doing this. Why do I have to deal with XYZ? Look at the student loan forgiveness thresholds. 125k individual and 250k couple? Jfc, I was making 45-80k (yr 1-4), wife was making (55k-70k) , paying for my school, paying off some past student loans, paying off my wifes student loans, bought two new cars, funded two Roths every year, and still saved money. Went out to eat probably once a week and a few vacations here or there. Never felt like the budget was "tight." What the F&*% do people spend their money on? To me it shows priorities and expectations of people are way tf off. Personal accountability and responsibility are at all time lows. @TwoCitiesCapital Also not saying you're wrong with the end thinking millennials probably share. Everyone is a product of their environment. Yup this hits the nail on the head. It showcases the priorities and expectations of most millennials. It's a gotta have it all, gotta have it now generation. Not being able to own a house is more of an inconvenience because it means they will pay more in rent which prevents them from doing other things. Where with prior generations it was seen as a point of pride. Now it's I need this subsidized so it doesn't cut into XYZ activity or lifestyle choice.

Probably right to a degree on GS. B of E might be a better number to look at. But that's still trending in the wrong direction if correct. Does anyone truly understand any of this?

Bank of England is projecting 13% and Goldman projected up to 22%

Don't know. but you have to admire? respect? the commitment to scorched earth policy. UK is the second worst economy next to Russia with a projected 22% inflation and energy bills that are now 3x what they were ($3549 now). 8 out of 10 factories is in danger of going bankrupt and corporate bankruptcies were up 80% across the board last month.

Are we not trying to do exactly that?

Unless China somehow defies typical tech advancement and brings competitive chips to market I don't see how there won't be some type of conflict in the future. Whether that's 10,20, or 50 years (or never) from now who knows. But we've had the Oil wars already and silicon is the next most important thing to secure global dominance (imo). Either way, not something I spend a lot of time thinking about. Plenty of ways to make money in any environment. I think Free Trade is much different than Globalism. The later is a pipe dream imo. But also not really sure what you consider or lump into Globalism. Either way not important lol. As far as BABA and Chinese tech companies go, it could be a big deal if China can not figure out their own tech to keep them competitive. That being said Intel has the freedom/ability here but seems to be squandering it with poor business decisions haha

The Daily Upside SEMICONDUCTORS China Claps Back After US Curbs Nvidia’s Exports All the chips are on the table now. China’s biggest tech firms face a murky future after the US government on Wednesday told Nvidia to halt all China-bound exports of two computing chips crucial to developing artificial intelligence. Experts say the move is a major escalation in the two nations’ battle for tech supremacy – and could severely limit China from advancing its AI capabilities. Code of Semi-Conduct Tensions are mounting between the world’s two most powerful nations as Beijing continues to menace Taiwan, home to much of the world’s semiconductor production. The US’ latest salvo is barring sales to China, Hong Kong, and Russia of Nvidia's high-powered A100 and H100 computer chips, which are often employed in massive data centers to power advanced AI natural language and image recognition tools. Washington says the action was primarily designed to keep American technology from being used to advance China’s military prowess. But its impact is also expected to strafe China’s biggest tech companies: • China’s trio of top cloud computing companies, Tencent, Alibaba, and Baidu, all use the A100 chip for cloud computing and storage services, as well as various AI-powered data analysis tasks. Other top Chinese customers include BYD Auto, IT giant Lenovo, and cloud provider Inspur. • In total, China and Hong Kong sales accounted for over 25% of Nvidia’s $27 billion of revenue in fiscal year 2022, and the new rules will cost Nvidia about 10% of long-term future revenue, Truist Securities analysts wrote in a note. Most Chinese firms will now have to patch together multiple, lower-end Nvidia chips in lieu of the high-powered A100 and H100 chips. China is not happy about any of this. “The U.S. side should immediately stop its erroneous practices, treat companies from all countries equally, including from China, and do more to contribute to world economic stability,” Chinese Commerce Ministry spokesperson Shu Jueting said Thursday in a statement. A New Player: Another rising global power, India, wants in on the lucrative chip game, too. On Thursday, its government announced $10 billion in incentives for manufacturers to establish semiconductor fabrication plants in the country. Already, Singapore-based IGSS Ventures, Israeli group ISMC, and Foxconn have signed letters of intent to develop Indian-based sites. Now, the chips will fall where they may.

I have heard from my collogues in Prague that their personal energy costs have gone up 100%. My company is thinking about relocating their data centers out of EU (Specifically Germany, Czech, and Ukraine) due to high energy costs and no near term solution regarding energy. That's a significant move because datacenters are not easy to relocate and build. Food for thought.