Castanza

I knew you were going to post this vid but it's likely cherry picked and who would take a "gold bar" from someone on the street? It's an issue of source and trust of that source. Money needs to be durable for long long periods of time. So even if it takes 50 years for BTC to be cracked it's still a real issue. We have 30yr notes with USD. Could you do that with any confidence using BTC instead?

What happens when BTC encryption gets broken by quantum computing in 10-20 years? BTC relies on something where gold does not. It simply exists and on top of that human psychology has adopted it over thousands of years. Go talk to some average Joe and tell him you will give him 1BTC for 50c on the dollar cash. Tell him that anyone can clone BTC but the one you're giving to him has value because it's the most used currently. Think he's taking the deal? Now take that man to a local coin shop and say I'll go in 50/50 with you on 20k worth of gold coins and let you keep them all. Think he's taking that deal? Average people do not understand it and that is a MASSIVE problem. Why does that make it valuable? Most people will go through life and never have USD taken from them other than through inflation. Security is overrated if there are effective systems in place to claim what was taken from you. USD stored in a bank provides exactly that. The US government will likely get rid of physical cash in the next 25 years imo. Everyone will more to digital USD and it's very possible that it is it's own form of crypto. At that point, the use case for BTC goes out the window. All it would take is the US govt to say "exchanging BTC for USDcrypto is illegal" and those transactions would be visible on the blockchain. This system designed to facilitate "freedom" will in time be turned on it's head and used by govts to monitor transactions closer than they ever have before. People will be begging for cold hard cash in 50 years. 87,000 new IRS agents with a bead on small cash transactions is already happening. On the flipside of that how can anyone claim BTC is replacing Gold when it has only 15 years (10 relevant) of adoption? Everything but Gold failed because it was easily found or replicable. And I'm not saying Gold will be it forever. But I have no confidence that BTC will be "it" either. I am a believer in blockchain in general for its utility....I just don't see us getting from point A (institutional backed currencies) to point B (code with no oversight and no "face" behind it). If we see anything like this in our lifetimes I think it will simply be the US Government saying "come exchange your cash because we have implemented a digital token of USD." And that will be that. That is a very large assumption....most of that sounds like complete nonsense (virtual real estate in a limitless world? Why would I want my avatar to get a spa treatment when I could get one myself in real life? ) but ignoring that...."when will we be there?" As of now BTC is an "investment". If BTC hit 1m tomorrow, everyone would sell except Saylor. Why? Because they don't value it and can't put a face to it and see institutions, militaries, industries behind those BTC like they can with dollars. BTC tries to ignore human psychology imo. At the end of the day the vast majority of people want to be governed and want to have leadership. BTC removes that and replaces it with "compute power". So when and how does BTC move from an "investment" to a currency? Someone has to facilitate that step over that threshold. Likely a government.

What gives BTC value? scarcity? Because in the crypto world, scarcity is no longer scarce. Anyone can stand up a new coin and call it valuable. Everything hinges on psychological adoption over time. It's the same reasons a Van Gough painting holds value vs some other one off LSD fueled finger painting hanging on your local coffee shop wall. BTC has to accomplish psychological adoption of the masses to hold value. I think most people underestimate how difficult that is.

Did the same exact thing except I sold SMH. Was able to pick up some TSM after hours when WB news came out. Haven't added to INTC since my initial buy last year. Looks like a good amount of insider buying at these levels.

Yeah, still some lingering supply chain issues and the chicken margins might come down but who cares in the long run. Revenue is still solid and overall margins look fine. They managed through a terrible few years and now are trading at a discount to peers. Yeah meat sales are down across the board but so is pretty much everything else in retail/consumer. 5-6x looks cheap enough to me to slowly build a position. Dividend looks safe sitting at a 15% payout ratio.

"Just around the corner."

Cocaine is a helluva drug

Shapiro won the go race here in PA. Pretty big on increasing regulation and reducing the land that is allowed to be drilled. Guess we will see, energy can do well under both parties no? We saw the gas boom under Obama. Maybe that was just luck of timing and technology.

The year is 2045, the Johnson family is traveling to Florida for the winter. The parents thought it best that everyone take a different method of transportation to best protect the seed phrase. Enjoy the 16 hour bus ride little Timmy. The whole family is counting on you.

LOL yeah could be interesting to see how this shakes out with the news. I think TSN looks relatively cheap here. Sure, some supply chain issues still but they are chugging along. Trading at a discount to peers, but hoping it drops more with some unsavory news. Very very small starter position and something I'd like to hold long term in the Roth at a 1% position.

TSN

Yeah I’m always hesitant with these up and coming software plays. The pitch is always “look at our growth” and “we have the best in class product” then someone ends up coming along and eats their lunch. But the numbers look good overall. I’m gonna wait a bit maybe see how the next Q goes. I’m not sure we’ve seen normalized earnings yet. I want to see what competition does and if someone else brings to market a all encompassing suite how that affects DFINs sun growth. Mitek comes to mind from my past experience.

AIV, CLPR

It's under the Investment Ideas section https://thecobf.com/forum/topic/7110-fb-facebookmeta/page/95/#comment-494700

All good points Spek I think it will be a tight race to see if they can meet their goals or if they will have to raise capital. Thanks for the thoughts

Not saying there is any proof of anything nefarious, but if I were to look anywhere it would be with the Pharma companies. Government is nothing more than a proxy for corporations at this point. Could just be they are trying to cover their ass at every turn but this still is very suspect practice in my opinion. If this is the norm, that makes it even more suspect. Pfizer for example - In response to a Freedom of Information Act request, the Food and Drug Administration asked a federal judge for permission to make the public wait until the year 2096 to disclose all of the data it relied upon to license Pfizer’s Covid-19 vaccine. The FDA wanted court approval to have up to 75 years to publicly disclose this information. Shady practice, or complete ignorance on how this would be perceived. - Pfizer executive said in a hearing that they did NOT test the vaccine for effectiveness on preventing transmission. I've seen some claim this statement was criminal but I don't agree. I think it was taken a bit out of context. BUT at the same time we did have government officials saying that it would prevent transmission and urged people to get the vaccine. Negligence and lack of due diligence on their part. - When vaccines initially came out they had emergency approval. This allowed companies to be exempt from liability while covered under the Emergency Use Authorization. When the vaccines became approved they should have then been made open to liability at that point. But here is the caveat. How does a company get liability protection for a vaccine moving forward? Well according to Health Resources & Service Administration a vaccine needs to get approval from the CDC for routine vaccination in children and pregnant women. " The National Vaccine Injury Compensation Program (VICP) covers most vaccines routinely given in the U.S. For a vaccine to be covered, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) must recommend the category of vaccine for routine administration to children or pregnant women, and it must be subject to an excise tax by federal law." Not difficult to look at the data and see there is virtually ZERO need for young children to get vaccinated. So if someone dies from the vaccine or we see some down the line effects, who foots that settlement bill? Not Pfizer. CICP and VICP are tax payer funded coffers. This is the unquestionable shady imo. A quick look at history will show you it can be both, one or the other. Hell a good read over the next Omnibus Bill will show you just how many hands are in the pot and whos interests are being served. Guess this is borderline political so I'll leave it at that

Agreed, I think management needs to prove themselves over the next few quarters. I listened to the latest call and every analyst only focused on the margins getting back into the 30's. They didn't really care about the supply chain improvements or the debt repayments. Maybe that's the story with the company and the market only cares about that margin rate. Q4, Q1 will be important and give some more insight to whether or not the market is truly softening. Will also find out if management is right in the margin improvements. See a decline the next two quarters and this could really dump. Something I'll be watching for sure as this is a good coffee can idea if you can get it at a great (not good) price.

$SWK Stanley Black & Decker watcher position Anyone else look at this lately? - Inventory was over built but they are rapidly reducing and expect to be back to normal levels mid 23. - Reduced production and headcount - Company focus is reducing debt and and reach a 2x debt/EBITDA level. Paid down 3.3b in Q3 more expected Q4 - Sept cashflow positive with expected positive fcf for 4th quarter. - Should see better margins. Current low 20's expecting high 20's by Q2 23 (excludes supply chain improvements) - Targeting 35% margins by 2025 - Directors buying back shares mid 80s-90s - Trading around 10 year lows - Dividend Stalwart yielding 4+% - EPS has been revised a few times. Recently revised down from 5-6 to 4-4.5 for Q4. - Softer demand is expected near term - Production curtailment is a decision of cash generation vs softer market outlook. Due to management revising multiple times I think there is more room for pain in the next few quarters. But it seems like management is focused on the right things and have/are making necessary changes to supply chain which will pay off long-term. Definitely some headwinds.

Up 25% ytd between my Roth accounts Down 15% in Brokerage Had some good luck APTS, ATCO…have some drag MSFT…..but overall feel confident with what I own and the prices I’ve paid. Since paying off the house I’ve just been stacking cash and really trying to be patient here. Could end up being an interesting year. There is already some real gems starting to show. pain? Too early in the game to tell

It’s bound to happen at some point

Lmao “how quick can it get me there”

Lmao is it just me or are these questions just pitiful? Everyone just grasping at straws looking for nuance to extrapolate "deep" investing angles. Dude said he is hiking rates and will continue to hike. Does it need to be made any more complicated?

Good stuff right there. My wife picked some up a while ago....said it was "pretty" lmao ... her only criteria for buying liquor.

Shes only worried about mid-terms and other elections