Castanza

Don't get me wrong, you can definitely probably make out well either way. I just think there is some handicap that comes with regionality and rates that make builders less attractive. The higher the probability inflation persists and rates continue to climb the more discount to book these things deserver. I'm not super confident in a re-rate to NAV play. We may all be a bit late to this trade? The reno market might be worth a look though. Owens Corning could be somewhat interesting. I got two quotes for a roof on a property I own. Kicking myself for not pulling the trigger last summer. Price jumped from 14k-19k from June-March....same roofer, same shingle....could be some room to run with high oil, low supply, high demand, all packaged in a gotta have it when you need it product.

Listened to this on my morning jog Quick notes - Pent-up demand doesn't have to be realized - Rent up 17% Mortgage cost up 33% - Housing hasn't really ever been cheap - Renovation segment is the highest demand segment for dimensional lumber (400b out of 1t) - Lumber prices are primarily high due to logistics (flatbed trucks are in short supply) - Finishing product supply constraints will last longer than lumber constraints (HVAC, Plumbing, Garage Doors, Windows, Paint) Most interesting part was the discussion on Book Value to Home Builders. KBH was used as an example. The conclusion was pretty binary. Either home builders will miss projections on the next few quarters and write down land/homes under construction and that the economy is way worse than we think...or this is a major over reaction. I don't have a good view on the reality of the market. Many of my peers are looking for homes but availability is low and prices are high. Now that interest rates are going up, that affordability is really getting stretched. But rent prices are also climbing at about 50% of mortgage costs and the idea of locking in long-term expenditures is attractive even if a premium is paid now. It has me thinking whether home builders are the best play? Starting to think that already built/rental segment is looking better because it has some downside protection (got to live somewhere) in the event that you can't find (due to supply) or afford (due to rates) a house. Mortgage rates are the kingpin to this trade imo. If they go up to 7-8% I think there would be a big curtail on demand.

Haha atta boy! I don’t have the conviction to lever up and every time I get fully invested there seems to be a fire sale and I end up taking a smaller bite of the pie than I was hoping for.

Just listened to that, pretty interesting take on the setup….makes me wish I went longer dated on my CLF calls though

Curious how everyone is positioned currently? What’s your cash stack looking like? Largest are RTX, MSFT, VZ, ATCO, MSGS, AIV, PCYO, INTC CLPR, PSTH (3%), T, BAC, APTS (5% sold out), TPL, GOOG, JOE, BABA, GRBK, NTDOY, ESRT, a few index funds and a bunch of other 1% shit 13% cash not including PSTH

AIV CLPR

Yeah it was pretty sweet although the moon was pretty bright that night and I had a fair amount to drink. Either way I enjoyed it lol

I'll give you a third The Dublin Pub in the Oregon District of Dayton....top 10 Irish Pubs in the states

If you're ever out near Dayton check out Carillon Brewing Co. It's a historical brewery all done with methods from 1850. I think it's one of if not the only brewery in the US that does this.

I was just in WV the past four days at a cabin and spent a night camping at the Greenbank Observatory air strip campground. Didn't have a telescope but the view was still amazing. Cherry Springs in PA is also a solid location for people on the East Coast

Yeah the push connect fittings can have small drip if it isn't seated properly or if you're going copper to PEX and the copper side isn't cut perfectly square. I could be wrong but I believe it's against code to use push to connect fittings in areas which cannot be accessed. The compression rings ( @ERICOPOLY) are what I meant, Forgot their was also the crimp rings. (Example) I took some extra PEX and crimped two pieces together and tried to pull them apart with two people. Couldn't budge it....As bluegolds alluded to there is a tool "Go-NoGo" gauge which let's you know if you did it right and the crimp tool itself is kind of a ripoff but I haven't been able to find any other off branded ones on the market. The manifold is definitely a good idea if all the plumbing in the house is already isolated but you for sure will use a lot more pipe, where you could just branch off a main line. Thinking about it as an engineer it would look wayyy cleaner though and PEX isn't that expensive.

PEX can still burst but it's not as likely to do so. Make sure you're using the crimp ring style if you're putting it in an area you can't access (behind a wall etc.). SharkBite push to connect fittings are great and simple for areas you can access. Big benefit is you can go copper to pex without a problem. Saves so much time. I haven't had any problem with mine. I even have a 1 inch push to connect line which is copper to pex and my PSI is definitely a bit high at 85PSI. Get the ball valves and use a lot of them. I recommend the ones with the bleeder/drain port. This is incredibly useful for future projects or changes that you might not think of now. Easily allows you to drain a line without having to turn all the water off and you can isolate sections even more. Cost wise it's a no brainer. 3ft piece of 1/2 copper is what $20 right now? No soldering, no cutting, no mess.

Thanks for the recommendations, you’re probably right that just going with some good sticks is better than dealing with inconsistencies of cheaper ones. Montecristo sounds about right for what I’m looking for. I don’t smoke very often either so I tend to stick with mild vs anything robust. Smoked some Oliva Maduro golfing once and it about put me on my ass lol

Problem is that their government has so much corruption. Would they even get a fair election? There are going to be a lot of people salivating for that power seat.

Lmao gotta love that. Whenever I make cutting boards I just use mineral oil but make sure to pick it up from a pharmacy. Some of the stuff at Lowes and Home Depot is distilled differently and not technically food safe. All about the same price. I do like the look of butcher block counters or island. Definitely a timeless look if incorporated right. also love those This Old House vids. Tom Silva saved my ass a few times. HomeRenovision DIY is also a good Youtube channel. Canadian guy who “helped” me sort out some things for a bathroom like Kerdi board, tile etc. Good luck!

@ERICOPOLY Whatever you finish the wood tops with, make sure it's food safe. I believe Waterlox is but some Poly may not be. https://www.cuttingboard.com/blog/what-type-of-oils-are-safe-to-use-on-your-cutting-board/

@Parsad @stahleyp thanks appreciate it! @ERICOPOLYman that looks like a big project to take on! Definitely good and bad working with older homes but once done refinished they really are a gem. I have to agree on the countertop. You’ll save yourself a lot of trouble by going with a man made quartzite. I believe you’re in Cali so not sure what it’s like there but here you depending on how big of a piece you need there are plenty of off cuts which you can get for a reasonable discount. Just be sure to leave your tenant a bunch of cork hot pads. A friend of mine does that for his tenants and says he hasn’t had a single problem with countertops since he started doing that.

Recent project I did for a neighbor. Completely rebuilt this mantel from the ground up. Never did this before so it was a fun project. Not perfect, and a few things I would do differently but turned out alright. A few finishing touches missing in the pic but that's the latest I have. I think they are going to put a gas insert in at some point so this was the immediate solution. - Pulled off old sheeting - Reinsulated duct work - Added canless lights, new outlets from circuit from box, and hidden media box behind TV with dedicated ethernet. Samsung Frame mounts flush which is pretty cool. - Also thought the picture mode looked pretty real if you got some high res paintings (one pictured is not) - Re sheeted in 3/4 veneer core finish ply - Custom milled trim - Custom built beam (shoutout to Sheppard Brackets <- use these) - Removed old insert cleaned and painted brick/fire box

Devils advocate This assumes the US would even get involved. It’s a big risk to defend Taiwan and have China cut off all manufacturing to the US….what then? US gets far more goods and items from China than Taiwan 430b vs 29b. A single fab would be worth risking the rest when we are building our own (Intel)? That would cripple the US economy. Sure, China would also be hurt in this scenario, but ask yourself which group of people could handle more suffering? People here are soft and haven’t had to endure any type of suffering in their life. The country is demoralized and is in a full fledged identity crisis. We haven’t had solid leadership in decades, congress fails to operate properly and everyone is war weary from GWOT. The military is strong, seasoned and advanced….but what’s backing that military isn’t.

China has 2.8m troops (double the US), warships cyber capability, missiles, modern infantry equipment etc. Plus they have public sentiment (at least seems that way). Taiwan has 88,000 active troops….sorry but idc what type of missile defense system you have or what geographic system you have. You’re not going to outlast China. Amphibious landing is not the only way into Taiwan. If China wanted to push in Taiwan they absolutely could. Why would the US get involved? It has a lot to lose by standing up to China. Frankly we’ve done it to ourselves by exporting manufacturing for almost every industry. US has zero leverage. I agree though, there is no way to play this. Intel seems like the obvious answer.

https://asiatimes.com/2022/02/china-takes-rare-earth-aim-at-raytheon-and-lockheed/

Testing 5 year support at 44....next stop 35?

Can't find the post but I know someone a few pages back mentioned wheat and fertilizer as a play. Looking at all the wheat producers...they are all trading at 52 week highs (some all time highs).

Up is down and down is up! Who would have though a global pandemic would send stocks and indices to record highs. Wouldn't be surprised if you're right on this.

Same