Castanza

Anyone else wondering how this will shake out for GOOGL and META in the ad department? Startups have been spending about half their cash on advertising between the two for some time. Many as high as 50% of cash. You had what 445B VC funding in 2022? Say 30% of that goes to ad spend so 133b and 50/50 split GOOGL and META....just napkin math without the nuance, but not immaterial when you consider GOOGL had 283b in ad rev 2022.

Liquor

On the Go, but here are a few topics highlighted. - Russia has largely failed and will never hold Ukraine - Russia is short on munitions and using most of what they make within a month. - Russia looks weak but can still make calculated pushes and capture territory. - Both armies are very different animals than when the war started. Both have greatly benefited from conscription/mobilization of additional forces. - Ukraine unlikely to re-capture major cities or hot spot locations (likely to lose Bakhmut) - War in general is at a relative stalemate - Ukraine wants more funding but US has 11B left in the tank. F16 don't make sense as 12 would eat that budget up. US production is bottlenecked and everything we give Ukraine is being taken away from current US missions. The "extra supply" is a myth. US debating future funding of resources based on our own risks as we deplete OUR supply. The benefit of a dozen F-16 to Ukraine would be negligible. - Some of the munitions very useful to Ukraine are not necessarily something we will continue to produce because they are not strategic to the US (speaker listed some shells and other munitions). US is Air dependent not Artillery. - Russia's nuclear declaration of use for Nuclear weapons is a much lower threshold than NATO nations. Putin is still irrational and the same people who said Russia wouldn't invade are the same ones saying Putin will never push that button. - Should the US supply cluster like munitions (cant remember specific name)? Maybe because they are already being used. - Ukraine will have to spend billions post war to de-mine the nation. It's going to be a massive problem that will hinder rebuilding. - Germany re-thinking the shipment of Leopard tanks as Ukraine may not be able to maintain them.

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/backing-ukraine-against-russia-with-colin-kahl-and/id682478916?i=1000601391447 Latest episode is worth a listen if you haven't. Covers the majority of the stuff you guys have been squabbling about the past few days.

I'm not lol added a bit more this morning

SNC (SNCAF) - new position

You’ll find this culture in all of the logistics related businesses. Getting the product moved at all costs takes precedent. This makes me think back to when I was working my way through college at UPS. Two stories: Was finishing up the day with some residential delivery and my brakes went out while in a development. Was driving this old piece of junk p800. Called in to the center and the manager said to just try and finish the day but use the e-brake (hand brake) to finish the day. They were more worried about getting the pickup pieces back to the center before the Louisville freight left. Was driving back to the center doing 55 on an Ohio country highway. Had a rear re-tread peel off the tire. Picture 2 feet of rubber slapping around attached to the tire with internal cable. Called in and they said limp it back lol…so I was a little more seasoned and disgruntled at this point. Said “ok boss”. Made sure no cars were around, pulled out and got it up to 25. The rubber flap slapped up under the wheel well, snapped off the gas tank fill tube and absolutely shredded the side of the package car. Pulled over with a smirk on my face, called it and again and said “you’re gonna need a tow truck”. They learned to send out a mechanic to change the tire next time. Moral of the story…I’d be willing to bet there are ticking time bombs like this all throughout the industry. Shit rolls downhill and as employees and management catch heat from up the chain you eventually end up with the straw that broke the camels back. Hence the Ohio train issue.

Thanks for sharing, any good books out there on the family?

Always though Kluber Lubrication would be a good addition to Lubrizols portfolio.

Atlas Copco (Stockholm Exchange) Stumbled upon this company from a podcast. Sounds like something right up WB alley. Large industrial conglomerate that manufactures compressors and vacuum pumps, 50B mktcap, b2b focused, family run for 150 years, shown resilience and has navigated many tough markets.

If you find yourself in BFE PA this Nov the Saturday following Thanksgiving I'll make sure you go home with a cooler full of venison. RE @BG2008 @Gregmal @thepupil @Dinar Macro @wabuffo @changegonnacome @Viking @SharperDingaan General Ideas @longterminvestor @gfp @kab60 @KJP @Spekulatius @LearningMachine @Ross812 @Lance (haven't seen post in a while) @Saluki just to name a few. All for generally different reasons. I don't know if Lance ever posted anything other than "What Are You Buying" positions. But every time I looked at them I was like "Damn, that is cheap." Learning Machine is a 10k animal. Spek a no bullshit common sense approach.

@Castanzafor shit takes and money losing propositions Far too many to name. This site is hands down the best collection of investors I have been able to find on the web. Learned a lot from others on here.

$LW tracker position Anyone else look at this? Potato company that specializes in frozen French fries. Operations in the US, Argentina (plant being built) and China. They supply big shops like MCD (~10% of Rev), as well as other chains and restaurants. Contracts negotiated every 3 years. Covid disruption has yet to normalize but they have been able to pass on the majority of this increase in COGS without issue. Global Margins is the key category and those margins have not yet come back to pre-covid levels. This could be close fully priced here at $100. But there could be upside if margins come back to normal levels and the contracts are re-negotiated at higher prices. Andrew Walker had a podcast on it and in the Global segment there seems to be room to do this. Not sure management has the appetite to do so. Being that fries are one of the highest margin food products for restaurants I can see this happening. Recession proof too. Management does have incentives at $140 and $212 share price so it's possible <--- but not necessarily a bet I'd make just on that alone. They do seem to have a new focus on dividend payout and share repurchase. They are also open to more aggressive M&A which would help reduce COGS pending locations they can secure. The Play TLDR: - Margins normalize around 25% (pre covid) - Global Margins come back as supply chain issues ease, crop production comes back to normal and sales volume comes back. Management has said they are trending up. - Management is incentivized to grow share price with targets at 140 and 212 - Contracts renegotiated and pricing power is flexed. (MCD pays like .11-.13 per pound of fries) Could be fairly valued here but worth a spot on the watchlist regardless imo. Low leverage smooth operating business with a very healthy market share, M&A hungry management in specific markets (EU & Africa) with a new focus on div and buybacks.

PCYO, BRKb

Good points Xerxes, investment approach and how you handle your resources definitely changes with time and your situation.

Yeah I saw that in the letter. Sounded like holding large amounts of cash to reduce any risk to the underlying businesses is the plan moving forward. Can certainly see the benefit at the scale of Berkshire. @Viking I can see your point though and how cash can be like a "non-expiry" call option. I'd say that line of thinking can lead to underperformance though as it leans towards market timing. Can't remember who posted this last week, but this article was pretty interesting from a performance viewpoint. https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2014/02/worlds-worst-market-timer/

It's only 1.99 for pickup if you're not an Express member. I figure 1.99 is worth the hour I would spend once a week at the store.

It’s easy to hold cash when you’re already rich, own cash producing companies and hold billions in assets that spit out millions in dividends every year. How much cash did WB hold in his early days? Unless you already have a solid portfolio to hold cash on top of; its just a more eloquent justification for trying to time the market no?

Anyone else see grocery stores just becoming warehouses with pickup lanes over the next decade? I can't remember the last time I went in the store to get a full order of groceries. Instacart is way too convenient and Wegmans charges no fee. Fill the cart throughout the week, place my order and have my pickup time set so I can swing by after the gym. Comes neatly packed in paper bags. Never had an issue with broken eggs, expired or wilting veggies and fruit. Although one time early on instead of getting a bunch of 6 bananas I got 6 bunches of bananas... Can imagine stores might save costs on employees, store space, and spoiled food that some lazy customer decided to :put back" on some random shelf. Some items are slightly more expensive but it's like $0.10 more or something negligible.

BRK.b

Freeze the pensions, transition to a 401k, get rid of the Public Sector Unions and watch the roaches scurry.

Looks like we need a "What Are You Cooking" thread. Sorry for the derailments lol I'll see myself out

Induction is definitely a solid choice. A lot of chefs are making the switch depending on their cook style. I have an induction cook plate I use for steaks to get a good seer. You can definitely be more precise. Comes down to personal preference though. Downsides of induction are you can't move the pot or pan around. You cant "toss stuff" over heat etc. I haven't really ever noticed a smell using gas. If you have a proper hood over your oven/stovetop there shouldn't really be an issue.

Yeah definitely a concern; especially if you have young kids who could turn the knob on the stove or something.

FWIW houses that have gas appliances vs electric are less likely to have a fire. Most fires start in the kitchen. I was looking at this some time ago because I converted pretty much everything to gas except my old water heater that I will probably switch to a heat pump at some point. But it was something like electric stoves are 2.6x more likely to cause a fire than a gas stove. I do have to say cooking on gas > electric. That being said, my wife is always paranoid we left the stove on or something. https://www.nfpa.org//-/media/Files/News-and-Research/Fire-statistics-and-reports/US-Fire-Problem/Fire-causes/oscooking.pdf