hasilp89

Any good recs for a new car. Need something for a toddler and a new one on the way. Thinking SUV or large sedan. Not looking to spend a fortune and want something that will last. Preferably hybrid. Would typically buy used but with pricing where it is think a new car is prob worth it.

thank you, jumped in on that one.

@wabuffo i've read this 7 times and think i might actually understand it (probably not though). Is this rough understanding even directionally correct? Treasury deficit spent -> created reserves at banks -> treasury didn't issue tsy securities in conjunction with the deficit spend so banks had nothing to do with reserves -> excess reserves at banks created potential for negative rates -> fed stepped in with reverse repo to prevent this. you mentioned the $1.6t of deficit spending and noted the accounting - while i can kind of see how the ledgers transaction works I'm confused on how it was in the TGA acct in the first place? Is that $1.6t just created because congress said so? Was their tsy security issuance in the past to raise that money? Does this just mean that rates are going to need trend higher for the private sector to be willing to hold more tsy securities?

This is where I get hung up. There are smarter people than me here who know fairfax and Prem more intimately than I, and I could just be taking it out of context, but this just seems like a baloney thing to say to your partners. At least be honest and say you were trying to be smart like a hedge fund or something and it didn’t work out, I dunno, just doesn’t seem like something Buffet or Gayner would do.

I'm still enjoying it but do agree it isn't as good as season one. as you say the lack of conflict is not as entertaining or interesting - and any conflict there is seems to get resolved quickly within an episode (jamie returning, dubai air). However I think they are just building up towards SPOLIER ALERT - ted/rebecca falling in love on bantr.

when you say Ted Lasso season 2 do you mean the first 5 episodes right? or am i missing something. Enjoying "For All Mankind" currently (Apple TV) - alternate history about the space race. Netflix had a decent space one to "Away" which i enjoyed.

anecdotally the numerous people i know that have been vaccinated and have gotten covid in the last month (presumably from Delta variant) if ADE was happening wouldn't you see hospitalization/deaths amongst vaccinated spike significantly in the last month when delta has been rampant? Small sample size but one of the two large hospital systems in Charlotte NC published these current statistics (8/16/21) - Total Hospitalized - 142 (7 vaccinated), Total in ICU - 39 (0 vaccinated), Total on a Vent 31 (0 vaccinated). Again I'd assume majority of these cases are delta and if ADE was real wouldn't the numbers include more than 7 vaccinated folks? (to be fair i don't know much about ADE so just posing the question.)

thank you. helpful to think of it as two separate issues.

https://www.ft.com/content/25ec12b5-aa66-4bbb-92a4-8e6ecec469b7?desktop=true&segmentId=7c8f09b9-9b61-4fbb-9430-9208a9e233c8#myft:notification:daily-email:content this is pretty much what @wabuffo has been saying all along right? @muscleman & @TwoCitiesCapital wouldn't this continue to force rates down until the debt ceiling is addressed

Definitely agree with this, wouldn’t you say that the other key (along with being bulletproof on the downside) is ensuring management is going to make sure the $ accrues to owners. Ie I assume you’re very comfortable with PYCO because if you personally owned it you would do x which is exactly what mgmt is going to do if not x+1. Maybe this is a given, but important to me in determining what to own in a concentrated portfolio.

Def an interesting topic. Probably a different conversation for me as I’m not LS and don’t know much about the strategy. Curious how you think of things on that front - 12 names at 40% (assume not all at the same time) but you must running a pretty large short book? I try to be at least 5-10 on anything I’m planning to hold. Ill do 1-5 for things that are asymmetric (by my calculation). I have gotten up to 20 for Stelco, 15 for DPZ and above 30 for gtx after the rights offering. Generally agree with you though and am actively trying to be more concentrated. As Buffett says “Very few people have gotten rich on their seventh best idea.”

thank you for sharing that @RichardGibbons i remember you mentioning this on the stelco page, but very interesting to hear how you traded it with options. kudos on the investment.

wow has Ted has crushed it in his IRA 9000x over 35 years. https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/20971124-ted-weschler-statement

Not sure if this is what you’re looking for but third Avenue have domestic and international RE funds. I used to skim them for ideas but haven’t done so in a while. https://thirdave.com/wp-content/uploads/shareholder-letters/TAREX-Shareholder-Letter.pdf https://thirdave.com/shareholder-letters/

I have actually been thinking this for a while and told another reader as much a few months back. The GTX registration statement may have disproved the theory but I'm holding out hope. https://www.ft.com/content/6f0d541d-3a47-481f-810b-d41dab13a2c2

Maybe this had been shared upthread and I missed it (saw someone post about Drastic), I found this article pretty informative of the timeline and the different factors at play. It’s long but it lays things out and you can think for yourself. My take is that like @Gregmal said there are many parties accountable. What sucks is it became a political issue as soon as trump opened his mouth. Scientists backed off because the topic became xenophobic. Speaking for myself I just believed what the media and US government told me that this came from bats at a wuhan wet market. From the studies I see now, there were no bats. Ridiculous it couldn’t be investigated properly considering the impact it has had and that leaders everywhere couldn’t ask the tough questions. https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2021/06/the-lab-leak-theory-inside-the-fight-to-uncover-covid-19s-origins?utm_campaign=MOI Global&utm_medium=email&utm_source=Revue newsletter

thanks for sharing the response.

@petec you've slowly converted me on this one. negative EV. yes please.

would assume so, believe he was the one behind StoneCo.

GOED warrants and some eDreams.

Appreciate the humility. But your analysis and insight is significantly better than anyone else’s ever read. And I ignorantly waste a lot of time trying to understand what the hell is going on.

Gregmal you should reconsider Twitter. I thought it was a garbage / waste of time but have come to appreciate it for idea gen and for learning/connecting with people who much smarter than me (much like this website). A form of scuttlebutt in a way. Takes some time to follow the right folks and not get caught in politics (unless that’s what you want) I saw the rant on Wyden and agree with the thoughts. Interesting to me that he forged his own path despite very likely having the opportunity to hobnob given his dads political standing.

i like API Group - ticker APG. He talked about it in a G&D newsletter.

$1 Logic: I have no clue what it is worth (sorry i couldn't help myself).

Barron’s piece on inflation with some quotes from irv Blumkin on the inflation he is seeing. Inflation Is Here and Hotter Than It Looks. Why It’s Time to Worry. https://www.barrons.com/articles/inflation-is-here-and-rising-51621025783?st=a8faigcwutcmpbl Have been seeing a lot of the same pressures in my business, primarily with labor - more than a 4% CPI print would indicate. We operate in SC which recently stopped federal unemployment to help businesses. Will be interesting to see if that eases wage and hiring pressure. if not seems more likely to me that this won’t be transitory like the fed thinks and rates will have to go up.