lnofeisone

Thanks for sharing. This is not an easy problem and they definitely have an interesting take on things (that I'd call very directionally correct ;D). Few things I'd look for them to resolve/discuss: 1) AlexNet and VGG are serial networks and comparing them to ResNet (which is network-in-network architecture) is, in my view, like comparing vacuum tubes to transistors. 2) EfficientNets are super powerful but rely on the baseline network (really excelling with transfer learning) which really means they are specialized and can be challenging to apply broadly

Added to WFC, CLMT, started PGRE

I feel like you and I live exactly the same life except I'm at Eastern Market and my park is Kingman Island/Anacostia bike trail/with an occasional Arlington loop sprinkled in. Having visited DC and done lots of tours of multi-family rentals, I have to say that I am incredibly jealous of what a $3,500 budget gets you amenity wise in DC vs NYC. Of course, I live and work from a pre-war apartment for $1,800 in Queens. The value guy in me can't pony up $6,000 for a NYC apartment. Do you recall the areas? I found DC to be very area-specific (for rent and buying) and a lot depends on metro access. Having grown up in deep Brooklyn (taking a bus to L train) I had to make mental adjustments. Also with new developments in Navy Yard and Mt. Vernon, you can get very interesting rentals with very serious amenities.

I feel like you and I live exactly the same life except I'm at Eastern Market and my park is Kingman Island/Anacostia bike trail/with an occasional Arlington loop sprinkled in.

Very few futures are closed out with physical delivery. Even if there is physical delivery, all of the futures costs are settled daily (marked to market) so whoever bought the future basically paid up out of the required margin. Edited to quote the question. Still getting used to the new format. Thanks for trying but you didn't answer my question. Is someone going to take delivery at negative cost? Or is that not a right question to ask? But I see the WTI spot price and it is normal around $20, so do we agree that the spot price of oil is around $20, it will never be negative? Ok so I do trade Emini futures so I know how it settles everyday. But what would prompt a person to sell oil at -$35. I wouldn't. Suppose I bought a future on a barrel for $40, then coronavirus hits us and I know I am hosed, ok I'll get out by selling $20. But if it goes to $10 I won't sell, I know that one minute before expiry I can unload it for $20 (the above minimum price I gave). Now I imagine maybe I really want to get rid of a barrel of oil, so I have the "original" contract..... and no one has taken the other side of this contract. I need to get rid of the oil cos I have no place to put it, so I am willing to take a loss on the barrel. But if I just hold on to the oil, on expiry I know I can get $20 / barrel. So in what scenario will a sane person sell oil at -$35? Am I missing something? like a margin call? what? please help! So few things here. Let's start with the mechanics and then do an actual example because there are some funny quirks. If you hold futures contract on oil into the expiration and go into a settlement (let's stick with light sweet) you have to take the delivery. At Cushing, the futures buyer needs to have storage access that is connected to either an EPD or ENB pipelines. Let's say you decided to take the delivery and the price is positive. At expiry (price is at spot), the exchange will take money from your account and deposit it into the seller's account. You get to Cushing and the seller will likely have oil storage in Cushing or will contract it from someone. That's the normal process for physical exchanges. There are protections in place for everyone (this is important because I think this is what drove some entity to basically take any price). For example, if the futures seller fails to deliver, the exchange will find the oil or compensate the buyer. If the buyer fails to accept delivery, the exchange will debit the account to make sure seller gets paid. If the facility fails to load out, the exchange guarantees the buyer will get the full market value of content. You get the idea. Now if either party fails to live up to their obligation the exchange will consider it an act detrimental to the welfare of the exchange and penalties can be stiff (e.g., suspension or expulsion). Now, onto the quirks. In reality, very few accounts are allowed to hold oil futures into expiration. If you hold futures, a few days prior to expiry you get a phone call from the exchange to either roll your futures or close out the position. If you are EPD or MPLX and have a business need you'll get questions but probably will be able to hold onto your position. If you are big and sophisticated players (le's say GS) you can probably figure out how to hold on. Small retail, no chance. This is one of those small differences between commodities and e-minis. The bigger difference (the one that doomed our hero) is that the e-minis (if they weren't financially settled) would deliver a basket of paper that is liquid while taking physical delivery of a commodity is a process that requires sophistication and infrastructure). Next quirk. A few weeks ago this went out (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-28/pipelines-ask-u-s-oil-drillers-to-curb-output-as-tanks-fill-up). EPD basically now asking everyone to show that they have a destination for their oil (meaning that they have no storage to spare). This is the part where I am guessing. Some sophisticated entity had a large position going into expiry. I say sophisticated because this is very close to expiry for someone like me to be holding oil futures. Exchange called this entity and asked to prove storage/destination or unwind. Failure to do so would result in not so great consequences. The entity was unable to find storage so the trading desk had to unwind at the insistence of risk officer. As prices started to come down, there were probably others in the market that started getting margin calls, and frenzy ensued. EPD/ENB and others with storage were probably buyers at negative prices. Hopefully, not too much because that oil isn't going anywhere for a while.

Very few futures are closed out with physical delivery. Even if there is physical delivery, all of the futures costs are settled daily (marked to market) so whoever bought the future basically paid up out of the required margin. Edited to quote the question. Still getting used to the new format.

This. Someone, somewhere is sitting on a massive loss. I doubt it's USO but USO is very much a forced seller here.

Not shhughes1116, but hey here's my 0.02. Personally, I separate good managers and good leaders. Good managers are the ones who take care of the team. It's all cliche, but they are the ones who care that team members get responsibilities according to their strengths and weaknesses. And at the same time encourage team members to improve their weak sides. And care about team member personal and professional growth. Interface the team with higher management and other teams. Deal with politics. Build team spirit and camaraderie. Make sure the team is valued. Makes sure the team gets adequate support and renumeration. Good leaders are much less common. For me a good leader is someone who directs the team into new high value and/or high growth directions as they appear or even before they appear. It is someone who notices trends before others and gets the team positioned accordingly. Ideally it's Steve Jobs or Bill Gates, but it doesn't have to be someone who produces iPhone. The leadership could be something less groundbreaking. It could be someone who first notices move to cloud computing and pushes company's product to be rewritten as SaaS on AWS. It could be someone like Munger who pushes Buffett to switch to moaty businesses. (Buffett himself is a leader in certain aspects too). It could be someone who noticed that ETFs are coming and converted mutual fund shop to ETF shop. Or just positioned the team inside the organization accordingly. This is a very subtle (and succinctly put) but one of the key differences between leaders and managers. This is one of the differences that junior staff don't connect when they complain that partners/senior leaders don't pay attention to them/their development areas/etc. This is also one of the hardest mental shifts to make as one progresses in the career (the other natural hurdle is going from contributor to manager). These shifts aren't time-bound and are very career and person-specific. Unfortunately for US Gov't, a lot of promotions occur based on time in service and once someone is promoted the support and training are barebones. Not an easy way to be successful or have a measured risk appetite (i.e., be innovative).

I don't even know what to say here. https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/u-s-weighs-paying-drillers-to-leave-oil-in-ground-amid-glut-1.1422060

Curious what makes TYL different from Accenture Federal or Booz Allen? I think there is plenty of $ to be made in updating current processes and taking care of the legacy paper, etc., just not sure the best way to play it.

In many homes, internet goes beyond just browsing (think alarm systems, Alexa, etc.). In many locales tenants sign up and pay for utilities and cutting that off can be challenging (have to validate identify) and all. Long way of saying, landlords should stick to courts.

You have a valid point, but if it really gets to that level is there really nothing that can be done as a land lord? Especially in this high rise buildings, are there no options (cutting internet, for example) to at least force a conversation around ability to pay? It's one thing to not be able to pay, it's another thing to choose to not pay. So if one wants electricity or cable or internet, assuming they could be cut off unit by unit, why is a landlord obligated to provide that if the renter isn't paying rent? I'm almost sure turning off electricity would open up massive legal liabilities that landlords would lose in court. I know it is illegal in canada to turn off electricity or the heating source to delinquent renters. I imagine it is the same in the US, nevermind during this crisis. As for cable/internet...not sure how it works in US, but again in Canada, most renters even in apartment buildings have individual agreements with their telcos. yes, technically the buildings allow the telcos to run their hardware through common areas, but the rent is separate. landlords would have no legal right to turn off a third party service. Is it generally different in the US? Is the internet explicitly bundled with rent? Making unit uninhabitable by landlord is called constructive eviction and opens up landlord to civil lawsuit/liabilities. Depending on the state these could very stiff.

Job title/description: Data Scientist with focus on in-production models Industry you work in: Financial Services City and Country: Reside in DC with clients in the US and Int'l. Anything expected or unexpected from being forced to work from home: My work ramped up substantially with production issues daily. Coordinating with a medium/large team that's dealing with live drills is awful. I'm literally on Zoom/phone/email/skype concurrently while expected to review math and code that goes with it. Quality assurance is paramount and obviously nobody invested in automation prior to this. Upside - more work that we charge for. Downside - not all clients deal well with being overwhelmed and stressed out. My firm has a large contingent of people that's 1-2 years out of college. Anecdotally, I've had a few colleagues that wondered if their staff were either drunk/hungover/high. I've heard of requests that everyone be on Zoom for the entire day.

Few things here to unpack. 1) Many of the new buildings give 2 months free for a 13 month lease. They don't' advertise it but if you go to the leasing office it's the first thing they bring up. I have friends who are literally moving apartments every 1-2 years. One of them moved within the same buildings 4 times now (around Mt. Vernon in DC). 2) You hit the nail on the head. The premium here is metro accessibility which in DC is paramount. Getting a similar apartment, 15 minute drive/bus ride will be going for 50% off. Check out 7 corners in Virginia where you are 15 minutes to either blue or orange/silver lines. 3) Here is a fun little special situation right next to a metro - https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1111-Arlington-Blvd-APT-925-Arlington-VA-22209/2080716875_zpid/ there is a reason, of course. :)

Just curious why electrical engineering is more of a growth industry than mechanical? I worked at a HVAC shop back in the days and we had a couple electrical guys in the office. In the US (and I suspect these trends will hold in most developed countries), there are more mechanical (ME) engineers than electrical engineers (EE) - 55/45 split or so. It's helpful to split out EE field into traditional EE and computer engineers. For MEs and EEs, the majority are employed in engineering services (NAICS 541300) which is basically consulting and companies like Jacobs, Bechtel, KBR, etc. For mechies, the next biggest employment sector is machinery manufacturing, which, in the US, is very mature and is probably in a secular decline. Most mechies are employed in 1) Michigan (auto - declining), 2) California (electronics - growing), 3) Texas (O&G - declining. The growth area for mechies is aerospace but the industry isn't very large and is highly specialized. For traditional EEs the 2nd largest employment industry is Power Generation and Transmission (think utilities). This is one is also mature and stable. Most EEs are employed in 1) California 2) Texas 3) Michigan. Same industry profile as above. The growth area is really the computer engineering (which bundles everything from systems design to semiconductors). Most of these engineers are employed in California. This group has the largest job growth, highest salary, and higher salary growth (on y-o-y % basis). ANSYS is huge here making the end-to-end process smoother and once embedded, getting an alternative in place requires monumental will and effort.

Added KMI, WMB, WFC

EPD and KMI

Lucky I limped in (only because I was without the cash to take a larger position): VGELX -7% since then, -17% since the beginning of this thread. A little bothered that Howard Marks believes energy isn't a bargain (unlike healthcare, he believes it has an uncertain future), but still looking to take a larger position. The beatdown isn't pleasant but I'm continuing to (slowly and selectively) add. CAPEX cuts and restricted cash access will continue to forcing MLPs to focus on balance sheets. I'm watching the demand side and for now cautiously optimistic.

O&G E&P usually reports PV10 value where 10 means that they are discounting with 10% for NPV. Here is a very crude, pun intended, introduction: There is oil/gas in place (look up OIP) which represents the total estimated amount of oil in the field/formation but only part of it can be recovered (Recovery Factor) which is the actual reserve. This can be summarized as Reserve = OIP * RF. The trick is to figure out what method is used to estimate OIP (materials balance vs. volumetric), what assumptions are being carried (each field will have its own set due to geology), etc. The same applies to RF. Once the reserve number is obtained, multiply it by price. That gets you to PV. You can then do PV10 by computing NPV with 10% as a discount. Frequently, you'll do price sensitivity analysis (i.e., move the price up down 10/20/30%). PV10 is mandated by the SEC. Here is a good starting point to understand why it was adopted: https://www.sec.gov/info/smallbus/secg/oilgasreporting-secg.htm This is a pretty decent introduction on oil reserve estimation (slide 9 gives you an idea of how huge of an estimate PV can really be) This is a decent introduction on pricing NPV and Sensitivity

This one is on my watch list too. Few thoughts: 1) It's very expensive as a stock and as a product (by my standards anyway) 2) TAM is pharma and schools (really specialized and expensive) but they are well known and often to of the list for considerations (based on my anecdotal discussions with friends) 3) Barriers of entry for others are astronomical, they are entrenched for those who know how to use it (working with Universities really helps with that), and there are no real free alternatives. 4) They can add a revenue line by adding consulting services to(e.g., help drugs go through FDA process ) or partner with Charles River 5) SUPER intrigued by Faxian and want to see what they do here. Would be an interesting model if they can identify potential compounds, get them to Phase I, sell to larger pharma to carry across the finish line.

I think the mean reversion argument based on charts is flawed. I agree that there will be few BKs in E&P but it will be localized to mostly small E&P. My position is that energy will start turning around in 2021 or so. My rationale is that many of the CAPEX programs are funded through 2020-2021 and debt markets are basically off limits/very expensive for anything energy. This will force major E&P, mid-stream, etc. to focus on internal funding. As this happens, stocks will rerate. KMI is an example of what the playbook will look like. The trick is to discern quality players (e.g., WMB, MPLX, etc. vs. SMLP) vs. those that are too constrained by debt. You do get paid decent (largely sustainable) dividends/distributions while waiting. I'm a bit overweight (compared to the rest of my holdings) in energy and (very) slowly adding.

Maybe I'm missing something. 1) Someone showed off their 9th grade skill at using Excel and getting a best fit line 2) Reddit peanut gallery is now cheering on every day that the model gets the number approximately correct If this were a legitimate model I'd expect a lot more metrics (root mean square and mean absolute errors at a minimum), time dependency, cure rate, etc. I can also guarantee that the model shown and the equation are wrong.

Same. Absolutely loath it. I run multiple teams of developers and data scientists (so maybe wrong personalities/type of work for an open office) and I frequently have to message them so they take off their headphones for a conversation. We also have a very liberal work from home policy. This message is largely lost on my company as they've been opening up floor after floor in just about every office I've been in (we have one in most major cities).

I found this to be very informative. The sheer magnitude of the update between Jan 17th and 22nd is staggering. Really explains China's drastic measures. https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/news--wuhan-coronavirus/?fbclid=IwAR1YkF6-jQQqI8IYkAWIqhjAn1M5gNngTV4SNgH030OkKlE9y3leTB3uveQ *Edited for date correction.

I've been trying to sell some NVAX covered calls but can't get a good fill. Put prices are out of this world but I'm not comfortable to short them.