The AMGN pick is dumb. AMGN's top products all have low cost competitors nipping at their heels and the company has over 30B of debt. 10x EBITDA is way overkill for this pick this far in the cycle and with pricing reform in the works although I wouldn't go so far as to call AMGN a good short by any stretch of the imagination. They are shifting to a stalwart IMO.
I'm not surprised he owns AAPL; if you look at the balance sheet and EBITDA multiple you pretty much have to own it as a value investor. Luckily I am not a value investor in the classic sense to I don't feel compelled to follow :) IPhone sales and margins mirrored the economic recovery which is now flagging, and I expect now will be the time where customers tighten their belts and diversify into cheaper brands or models. I doubt whether AAPL has the leadership at present to achieve significant returns on capital from their large cash hoard. They've become like Xerox - bloated and cautious to invest in an uncertain future. There may be a buy point, but I don't see it coming anytime soon and certainly not before iProduct sales start to fall off the cliff.
I do think the move out of longs is significant. It dovetails nicely with what we said earlier that the financial institutions where probably post-recession QE plays held for a period of years.
I maintain that TLRD and HCA make no sense at this point in the cycle. Their risks are much the same as financials.
Burry has historically been one to exercise directional bets. As such, individual picks should have meaning without knowing the whole portfolio. I don't, for example, worry that AMGN is some kind of pair trade. But if you wanted to know how bearish he was or what specifically he was bearish against, the 13F won't help much. I hope someday the SEC requires short positions to be disclosed, although in Burry's case this wouldn't be that helpful since he prefers to implement bearish bets in other ways.
Can you expand the comment on Amgen a bit? I agree the EV/EBITDA multiple is high, but which products do you think are most in danger? Enbrel has patent protection until 2029 and I believe they have 34 bil. in cash which kind of covers their debt. Do you think the biosimilars and other drugs in development won't provide sufficient growth?