Gregmal
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Everything posted by Gregmal
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Well rest assured, he is now confident he has shrunk his fund back to a size where its returns will no longer be impeded... Additionally he is opening it to new investors so that they can take advantage of this once in a lifetime opportunity.
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Movies and TV shows (general recommendation thread)
Gregmal replied to Liberty's topic in General Discussion
Sopranos Californication Nip/Tuck Damages Mad Men Eastbound and Down I don't watch much tv and it takes a lot for me to get into stuff. Honorable mentions but not stuff I'd really be able to rewatch were Boardwalk Empire, The Wire, House of Lies, Dexter, Vice Principals. Currently trying to force myself to stay with Billions, and giving Black Monday a chance. Homeland had big potential but I totally got bored with it after Season 3. -
I doubt anyone is looking to mimic his strategy right now. I think the secrecy at this point is about getting attention. He saw it did wonders for the value of his book. Which like his strategy, is nothing special.
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Its amusing how secretive this dude is. Its not like he's protecting valuable ideas anymore.
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Is value investing more susceptible to sunk cost fallacy?
Gregmal replied to clutch's topic in General Discussion
Only in the stock market do these things exist and they exist simply because you can check stock prices daily. If you know the business well it's pretty cut and dry. If you're a sole proprietor and you keep having to invest new capital, eventually you realize its a lost cause and close shop. If you see the business grow and start seeing cash on cash returns, you know you've got a good one. When you can internalize these things as the owner of a publicly traded company, you're where you should be. If you get nervous just cuz the stock goes down, stick to index funds... If you are an investor in individual companies, you should be able to discern "health of the company" from "stock price gyrations". -
Except how do you limit your losses to 10% rolling the dice on momo names? A good majority of these get their momo from earnings. So unless you are basically just a day trader, I feel like seeking out companies that by and large are the biggest earnings movers, and expecting to cut losses at 10% is a bit flawed...FB was the momo poster boy until its 25% earnings related gap down last year. A 10% stop wouldn't have done any good there.
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LOL the zebras guide the game to the favorable outcome...Jesus
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Oh watch. On one end, NFL's Curry beats GOAT on amazing 10 point 4th quarter comeback, OR GOAT leads last minute comeback AGAIN in dual for the ages. Notice every other play is at the discretion of poor officiating. NFL has become a total joke. The game is officiated to produce the best ratings and most drastic results/matchups. Its so predictable its sad. Its no longer sports.
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Here you go. NFL trying its hardest to turn Maholmes into their version of Steph Curry. No better way than stage a 10 point 4th quarter comeback against Brady and the Pats. NFL is no better than WWF these days.
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Indeed, but just wait, the only certainty is that the refs will find a way to make the game interesting. The only certainty in the NFL these days.
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I am not a fan of the NFL. The main reason is players are only out for themselves and the game is entirely dictated by the referees. One call negates dominating defensively. The QB protection measures are pathetic as well. I could not believe not only this call, but the possession before they just ignored blatant pass interference.
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Precision Castparts and Lubrizol are another $50B or so of easily identifiable value. I would also value the stock portfolio on a liquidation basis, which must account for their tax liability which in many cases, comes from a very low cost basis.
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Unless we're all going to present audited trading reports, then boasting of returns is useless. Comments can be verified though. So yea...
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+1. It’s also probably not a bad time to put (back) on some macro hedges (SPX puts and the like) if you’re so inclined. But generally speaking, the US is set up in a way that ensures that almost all bad macro events end up being temporary, so if you’re invested in high quality companies and your investment horizon is long enough it’s probably perfectly fine to ignore them. Even if the trade negotiations with China go wrong and end up causing a huge recession, no big deal, it just means Trump will lost the election in 2020 and the tariffs will be taken down by his successor. Agree with everything including the bold. Also like Spekulatius said above with GS. For a split second, you had things that were absurdly cheap. That typically corrects quickly. When it does, you rebalance. You basically got 10-20% moves in anything you could throw a dart at. The next 10% I don't think will be that quick or easy. But it will come.
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"I skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been." -Wayne Gretzky
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Same thing as before... When stocks are cheap, ignore the noise.
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I think it all just comes back to focusing on quality stuff. Spekulatius if I remember, was positive on FDX. I don't own it but had the same views. Not too long ago its trading at what? 14x? Nothing really changes, sentiment shifts, fed hikes 25bp. Uhm, now its a 9x??? Sign me up! Either I get it at a depressed multiple and keep buying more. Or, something statistically extraordinary has to happen, IE earnings need to contract like 35%, to justify the current price... These sort of things to me should be common sense for people buying individual names. Myself, I'm not even a huge BRK fanboy, but banks fell like 30%+(BRK is a very safe way to play high quality financials), BRK is a smart capital allocator, insider buying below $200 plus BRK buyback, low PE/P/B in historical context. Do I need to know anything else to pull the trigger at $195???
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IDK, I say it with the same common sense conviction I had a month ago; the sky doesn't fall for no reason. So when something like that looks like its occurring you just go to the information available and in that case nothing changed. Easy as that.
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I couldn't help but think of the hilarity that was ensuing all but a month ago and the panic that took place. Yes even here, where you'd think people had better temperament and ability to ignore the noise, chaos ensued. An entire year's worth of returns were there for the taking; to be had in a couple weeks, if one just read the situation properly.
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Well, to provide you with some modest pushback, very few of the things you listed, actually have anything to do with value investing specifically. They could apply to any strategy and deal more or less with your own temperament when it comes to handling draw-downs. Investing isnt life though, so if it takes up an excessively large portion of your mental space, and you are not comfortable with this, then I applaud you deciding to cut ties.
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I love India, and there is so much money to be made investing there. That said, I have not yet found an efficient way to capitalize on this. I'll be eagerly listening to those with ideas.
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Are normal 60 year olds worth billions, directly or indirectly? Even if so, does someone representing a hair over 7%(1/14) of potential votes really impact things that much? Like I said, you guys either wrote off something you should've cared about because of your own biases, or, are now giving it more weight than it deserves because of your own biases... Carry one now.
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Don't be insulting. You do not know the politics of the people in this thread. Some of them may be conservatives, some of them might not be. This, however, is hardly an issue of one view point vs another on a particular issue. The extremes of both ends of the political spectrum seem to attract wingnuts in spectacular numbers. If Howie had just thrown a few bucks at this like a normal 60 year-old rich guy, this wouldn't even raise an eyebrow. However, Howie's activist behaviour calls into question whether he might be among the extreme, which leads a pragmatic BRK shareholder to question whether he is one of the tin-foil hat whack-jobs or whether he's a normal rich guy with a really weird hobby. So, which is it? Frankly, I don't give a damn about his politics or whether he's a racist; life's far too short to fuss about others' political views or to fuss about whether others are racist. I just have concerns about whether he's a whack-job, particularly given his annointed role of protecting BRK's special culture after WEB and Charlie kick the bucket. SJ Sorry but if Howies political leanings are this much of a shock to you, you failed in your due diligence. It’s much more likely that you disagree politically, but need an outlet more mainstream than pretending to be a hack like EliG. Howard was never qualified, but personally I think it’s ok because Warren built the company and deserves some semblance of a legacy protector. It blows my mind that clowns who shun other investments because of dual class shares or majority board positions whine now about WB having ONE nepotistic director. LOL, shut up. You don't get it. You cannot seem to see past basic political tribalism. My side is good the other side is bad, always and everywhere, end of story. I wish you the best of luck on making a few bucks. cheers SJ Uhm, yea, I don't get it.... You guys forever have been smitten by Warren and the BRK "culture". Howie has never been deserving of his board seat; ANYWHERE. Regardless of where he leans politically. Now, it comes out he has some far right leaning hobbies and its "Oh, I need to evaluate. Oh, we need answers!!!!" And to me, it's like. "Oh the COBF crowd missed the forest for the trees again. Go figure..."
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Don't be insulting. You do not know the politics of the people in this thread. Some of them may be conservatives, some of them might not be. This, however, is hardly an issue of one view point vs another on a particular issue. The extremes of both ends of the political spectrum seem to attract wingnuts in spectacular numbers. If Howie had just thrown a few bucks at this like a normal 60 year-old rich guy, this wouldn't even raise an eyebrow. However, Howie's activist behaviour calls into question whether he might be among the extreme, which leads a pragmatic BRK shareholder to question whether he is one of the tin-foil hat whack-jobs or whether he's a normal rich guy with a really weird hobby. So, which is it? Frankly, I don't give a damn about his politics or whether he's a racist; life's far too short to fuss about others' political views or to fuss about whether others are racist. I just have concerns about whether he's a whack-job, particularly given his annointed role of protecting BRK's special culture after WEB and Charlie kick the bucket. SJ Sorry but if Howies political leanings are this much of a shock to you, you failed in your due diligence. It’s much more likely that you disagree politically, but need an outlet more mainstream than pretending to be a hack like EliG. Howard was never qualified, but personally I think it’s ok because Warren built the company and deserves some semblance of a legacy protector. It blows my mind that clowns who shun other investments because of dual class shares or majority board positions whine now about WB having ONE nepotistic director. LOL, shut up.
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Warrens son has been associated with BRK forever. Warrens son supports protecting the borders. Liberals are outraged. Now there’s a problem at Berkshire. LOL.
