Gregmal

Glad you made money my man, took half off the NFLX short as I do agree short term this might have played out. Longer term its still in trouble IMO. Rolled the proceeds into a small OPK short. This one is terminally ill and there is little that can save it.

Flipped some GRIF around $39 for JOE under $17

For starters on the triple net stuff, O and NNN are basically the models. In regards to the questions on performance in a recession/bad market, look at the above two during the market swoons going back a few years or check the tape the next time we have a 500 point selloff. They largely resemble and have bond like characteristics and an important metric to observe is % of investment grade tenants. I personally hate replacement value as a metric. It’s bullshit and I get skeptical of management teams that tout it as an excuse for an acquisition. Go check out the massive Toy R Us headquarters replacement cost vs actually sale price. It’s on a beautiful piece of land, but what the fuck do you do with buildings of that size when your only tenant leaves? Burn a lot of money repositioning it, that’s what.

I bought some Jan 2021's ranging from $50-$100 strikes. Its basically a 2-3 month trade idea. I think the lockup easily takes 25% off the share price. The thinking goes, yea... straight short you're paying 175% neg borrow which can be yanked at any time and the rate can and likely will go up. Shorter dated puts are insanely expensive and a sucker bet. 2021s that are out of the money that far are only pricing in time value. Ive got like 16 months til expiration and if 2-3 expire, there s still a whole lot of time value likely for those options which still have a good chunk of value whether the stock goes up, down, or sideways. But if I'm right, and we get a 20-30% or greater move down on lockup expiring(which really isn't much of a stretch given how some of these things trade, let alone if you follow what TLRY did)....we eat well.

Strolling through the grocery store today and noticed that now everyone has a plant based meat product out. Saw the news about Tim Hortons dumping BYND and didn't have a difficult time seeing others follow suit. This shit doesnt sell in a number of markets. This is Tilray 2.0, lockup expiration 6 weeks away. So I shorted the pig via buying some well out of the money, longer dated puts.

Bought some AYR from suckers who needed liquidity and thought a stock with a 15% spread was the way to go.

Debt and dilution +1031s

Two young kids are expensive enough and when your home runs on heating oil, you're always kind of "short" the market for that. Half of timing is just paying attention. A quarter is luck. The other quarter is overcoming that "voice" in every investor's(every sensible investor that is) head that says trading is bad. Or so I tell myself....

NVTA

Im not sure this serves a purpose though. I am aware of a few sites like Tim Sykes Profitly that supposedly allow people to publicly display their real portfolio moves. But doing so with an artificial portfolio is an absolute waste of time unless you happen to be a gifted trader/investor who likes to waste time and doesn't like to make money.

In some games, average is not enough to get you any points. In Investing, you can even win with average if you live long enough. But performance without a large population size of who is trying and what they are achieving in the aggregate is meaningless. And I don't think in investing this statistic is so easy to gather like census statistics. One of the greatest and most underappreciated pillars of investing is the notion that the most you can lose(generally speaking) is 100% of your investment. While the amount you can make is often many times that. The key to this is proper risk management, but its a truly powerful and liberating thing once internalized.

COBF helps make everyone money! Including bloggers seeking click alpha!

250 gallons of heating oil for the home.

LOL so this is all just proving my point! I don't care if they blow up, or lose money, or cook their books...I just want to know how something like this occurs! Where TF is anyone who sees any value/utility to this as an investment??? It might be fueled by Softbank, but they arent the ONLY ones propping up this valuation(at least to my knowledge). How does this happen? Its a total enigma to me because the consensus for EVERYONE Ive ever talked to thinks this thing is one giant piece of shit.

closed this out for a small loss. market reaction more muted than I would have thought.

IPO price keeps sliding. One thing I've wondered, and more so lately, is this. Has anyone here been involved in a funding round or gotten the up close pitch on this? I am super curious because I just have a tremendously hard time reconciling how enormous the valuation gap seems to be between what supposedly sophisticated institutional investors are paying for this, and what common sense and conventional wisdom seem to state based on whats readily out there. Its abnormally perplexing actually.

Grabbed a little PCG pre market on the settlement announcement. Gotta figure there's a few % to be had in there given all the volatility.

Trimmed ENDP, TEVA EDIT: closed all ENDP, didn't like the price action/reversal.

Gracias. Was able to grab a few FNMAH at a hair over $12

Yup. Ive said before that the easiest way to spin this is to throw it all on Obama. Something I dont think any of us would argue about whether or not this option is appealing to Trump.

Already looking super perky, with the commons again looking like the better performer. Personally I think at this point the preferred's should be trading at a minimum at 65-70% of par. This has all but been derisked.

Probably yes. However arent there quite a few scenarios where the preffereds are worth way more? Off the top of my head some of these things have like 8% yields at par, no? So in a scenario where the capital structure is not completely rearranged, or the dividends get turned back on, or paid in arrears, in even preferred get converted to common, there would be scenarios where FMV is significantly in excess of par, or so I would think.

For those of you who don't believe the game is rigged, is it odd that the same trading day of the announcement to release comes out, a court decision now emerges that gives even those most opposed to the release a reason to compromise?

Well, it is all about what suits your personality. While this one would have worked out better trading, there will be plenty others that you wished you would have been investing. Making the decision to switch should be entirely based on your personality, not looking at one particular stock and draw the conclusion in hindsight. The same applies to FA vs TA. It about making money, that's it. The preferred have long been anointed the security most certain to have a favorable outcome when its all said and done. But the commons have been a much better vehicle to date. I think that changes once we start seeing some material developments, as the commons are more of a retail investment, but nevertheless how many 1-5-2-4-2-4-1-3 moves have we seen? So if its all said and done and this is a bust, who's worse off? The guy who sits on commons at $0 but made $5 per share trading? Or the guy who bought and held and now has nothing to show and 5-10 years of wasted time? If reform gets done pretty much everyone wins anyway. Thats why trading around a core is also a way to mitigate loss and permanent impairment. That’s all hindsight. You wouldn’t have known ahead of time. Of course it is about money. Who here doesn’t have the goal to make money? But you can only make money when you use a strategy that suits you. If you make this switch merely based on the common share movement in the past, you may be more disappointed in the future Yes, ones job is to make money. Hindsite evaluation of ones performance is crucial. There really isn't an argument that if you've been a buy and hold investor in this name for any substantial period of time, that you wouldn't have been better suited trading vs holding. No one knows for sure but as an investor your job is to decipher/read situations and if you chose to hold you simply got it wrong(as I did). Thats not to say you didnt make some money. But missing the gravy train is an opportunity cost and most here probably wouldn't waste their time for, lets say a 50% 5 year total return given the known downside risk. As I said in a different post, moving from common to preferred at this point in time, probably de-risks this a bit if indeed they do start taking action. Which isn't to say the commons still can't be the better performer. Thats my read on this... as always we'll see who's right and wrong eventually...the beauty of the markets.

Well, it is all about what suits your personality. While this one would have worked out better trading, there will be plenty others that you wished you would have been investing. Making the decision to switch should be entirely based on your personality, not looking at one particular stock and draw the conclusion in hindsight. The same applies to FA vs TA. It about making money, that's it. The preferred have long been anointed the security most certain to have a favorable outcome when its all said and done. But the commons have been a much better vehicle to date. I think that changes once we start seeing some material developments, as the commons are more of a retail investment, but nevertheless how many 1-5-2-4-2-4-1-3 moves have we seen? So if its all said and done and this is a bust, who's worse off? The guy who sits on commons at $0 but made $5 per share trading? Or the guy who bought and held and now has nothing to show and 5-10 years of wasted time? If reform gets done pretty much everyone wins anyway. Thats why trading around a core is also a way to mitigate loss and permanent impairment.