Gregmal

Have been buying & selling over the last 2-3 weeks. Typically 20-30% of the position. When VIX dropped to 15-17 I was buying and selling those same contracts each time it went to 20+. Entire position has basically been paid for in profits at this point and I purchased more today. VIX hasn't dropped in the target range like I've been waiting for on prior buys, but 2 observations give me an ominous feeling: 1) A handful of the last few days have ended slightly positive or flat for the S&P/Dow and my puts positions still rose in value slightly (crazy!) 2) NYSE Composite failed to break through it's 200 DMA today and turned negative again. Not a huge TA expert, but that seems to tell me that a major composite failed to break out on positive headlines (supposedly softer trade stance from Trump/China) and the market isn't buying it and is hedging instead (a bid under puts despite rising market). Maybe I'm just to more risk-seeking now that it's house money, but it doesn't sit right with me so I purchased more puts today. Yea, Im getting the same gut feeling. Everything of late seems like a bull trap. Cyclicals just don't move on up days and then get flattened on down days. Everything gets faded. Many names within an earshot of or at 52 week lows. Even non correlated assets are getting sold off. My top performer this month is basically a triple net REIT....

The failure here is in judgment. Yes this war is punitive on the people. But China and America are very different culturally. Americans have ZERO pride in their country compared to China. Chinese are also quite used to a much lower standard of living(and higher degree of "suffering"). So lets rework this.... Who do you think is better prepared to hold out in the name of patriotism? The average Joe from China, or the average Joe from America, who cries foul and has temper tantrums because they cant pee with the opposite sex or take a selfie when they want to? And in terms of America, and the pain that must be endured to prevail here... does anyone really think it will be Trump himself who has to deal with any of this? Of course not. Other people will pay for his egotistic pissing match.

I would be buying more GRIF if it wasn't for the large position size already. Yea while I don't think its got much of a catalyst I still kind of ask myself Who TF is selling at these prices? Its one thing to look at a stock and pass. Its another when you already own it because you have to at least peripherally be aware of what's going on. I mean, even on a super short term, trading based thesis, $35 is still where'd you'd be buying, not selling... got another 1250 today.

GRIF @35 and MSGN @14

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3494406-sinclair-turns-attention-and-t-sports-nets-wsj

Do away with politics! That said, what you described is a predictable element of the equation. We know how both sides react to things typically and adjust our expectations based on such.

MSB, MSG, MSGN

Generally yes, lower prices are good. And Im all for it, as I've said before, to an extent. The extent, is that these "things" have to be short term issues, or undoable. Trump has gotten so far off base that some of this may be irreversible. Then, "lower prices" just turn into "the prices", or worse, "the high prices". For instance, if you're long some of these companies with China exposure, the rhetoric gets you a nice little entry. If and when things are fixed, you're all good. But to the extent the rhetoric escalates and goes on too long, or like today, becomes real, so then to do the impairments...

Yea.... I am about as big an advocate of much of Trump's tactics, and rhetoric in terms of slapping back many of these loser lefties.... but Im sick of this kind of uncalled for nonsense and the constant bullying where it isn't needed. HE picked Powell. And now the guy can't breathe without Trumps rampant bullshit. The market liked what Powell said today. Then Trump starts in AGAIN...unprovoked. HE escalated things with Xi. Then today HE comes out of nowhere with a bunch of 10 level responses to a 3 level action... We'd be several hundred points green today and because of this idiot we are probably finishing 500+ points lower with a setup for a really, really, nasty Monday...Give me Biden.

I must say, Trump is such a moron sometimes... just shut up

The problem for Powell is Trump. Trump is right. But how does Powell do what Trump is saying to do, while not looking like a partisan hack or Trump's bitch? In this case, Donald should just shut up because he's making Powell, an already awkward guy, do and say these stupid short term things just to later rationalize doing his job... Powell likely wants to ease, but with all Trumps bs, he is afraid to have it appear as though he is acknowledging that Trump was right and he was wrong. So instead he minces words to take the other side, while at the same time gravitating towards making the decision he wants to...It's dumb. But predictable. And now it seems Trump thinks he can ratchet up the trade war, because worst case it just forces the Fed to ease more...

Puts already paying off lol. But China just set the stage for a potentially very ugly day with dimwit Powell in the on deck circle... Buckle up.

A 20% FCF yield with a 13.5% decline in operating profit isn’t necessarily a good deal. I have heuristically cam to the concluding that most of these type of value situations don’t work, and even if they do, they cause much more grief then they are worth (averaging does trading around ). Others may come to different conclusions and better results, but those are mine. FWIW, I think the whole cable / TV sector is a bit spooked by subscriber losses, but MSGN are definitely the worst I have seen. Thanks. Appreciate the cold water as I always prefer hearing the other side of things. I don't think there is much if any downside here, and likely IMO it overshot to the downside for a number of reasons, all short term. ~$600M market value decline in a couple weeks is a bit much for a company like this. The numbers may move around, but this company isn't going anywhere. I'd like to see them consider some sort of streaming option for out of network people. Plenty of people would pay $5-$8 a month in season for this. That said, I only see two things that provide a catalyst for better valuation. 1) Dolan hitting the bid. The most recent RSN deals definitely support a higher valuation than todays MSGN share price. $2.5B EV is about a 40% premium 2) stacking cash for the next couple years. This, after today is about a 3% position for me. I'm inclined to add a bit more to it but also probably need to adjust my allocation based off of a longer expected holding period for the thesis to play out.

Subs declining obviously isn't great, but this isn't the decline of sports as we know it. The teams suck and had a summer that can only be described as embarrassing. But MSG Networks owns the content and really just needs to find a way to monetize it differently, before cable/cord cutting becomes too much of a problem. Right now it isn't a problem IMO. Sports betting will only further keep the gravy train moving. But for now its trading with something like a 20%+ FCF yield with $45M in interest expenses to likely be eliminated or significantly reduced in the next 3 years. Big buybacks and dividends are also expected at 2X EBITDA, which should also be in the not too distant future. Given that Dolan controls this and will do what it takes not to destroy his own company, I see zero chance at this being a 0 ever, and zero chance the distribution rights disappear in 15 years or whatever unless it is of significant benefit to another Dolan entity, which I also happen to own.

Dolan still controls both entities. He won't just let the contract run out and wipe out billions in value. Just added more at 14.75. Company has been plowing cash into debt pay down, now standing around $700M net of cash. You've got $200M FCF and even with sub decline a fairly decent chunk of it will continue to get offset by decrease in interest expenses.

Yup, from the looks of it, I'll likely be adding to this(again) today as well. Bottomless abyss. Odd for a company with such easily predictable and stable earnings. I think Dolan is actually a plus here, as he has the power to change many of the arrangements that may or may not become favorable with MSG, and will basically be able to make whatever arrangements are necessary to get a deal done. He obviously wants to sell this, and given the capital needed for his giant TV projects, will likely have to start considering selling some assets given he isn't really allowed to borrow much against the sports teams.

Bass is just another example of a really smart Wall Street guy who can't make money.....for his investors. He still managed to make himself rich

Added some MSG under 270. Couldn't help it. Always sells off on earnings. Earnings for MSG don't matter. Hopefully the market never learns...

How many shares did you snag? Just curious about your view on GRIF. Got 2,000 between 34.86 and $35, First, your/the thesis is right. You won't lose money on GRIF at $35 unless you're a forced seller. I just think you're a bit early. Full disclosure, on a quick bounce to high 30's I'm probably out. I think this is the low end of an opportune trading range. Done it a couple times before. Longer term, I think this is something that fits the FRP/CTO mold in that its transformational while under the radar. A couple years out I think they've got a shot at doing $30M NOI. That puts the share price at $55+ with the other assets valued at nil. Gabelli is + much like Winters was at CTO. Management is so far, from what Ive observed, capable. Not outstanding but not a detriment. Basically, Im cool with FRPH here, and I see CTO going parabolic with it's catalysts between now and next year's AGM, so I want to line up my next one. GRIF doesn't have the liquidity to just hop on in, so this is a good starter spot IMO. I believe Ive shared with you my position on CTO. Im fine going there with GRIF as well if we get $30 or below. There might not be a hard catalyst, but one of my favorite catalysts is when people say "there's no catalyst". More often than not that is when the catalyst is right around the corner.

Bravo

Don't forget tenure as well! The truth is that the good teachers find ways to bank it. I knew a couple that worked middle/high school who also taught a few courses at the local universities. Double and triple leveraging their knowledge base to easily earn six figures. A few others did their 20-25 prior with other government services and now have two pensions lined up. Granted, Ive also served on boards with teachers and government workers, and for the most part they are academics who have no clue how the real world works, but thats largely just what they are. Credit to the ones who figure out how to excel.

Sanjeev's post from 2/09 is like Moses parting the Red Sea and then calmly leading people through it. Cool and collected during times of duress. God like. Sometimes investing is very easy. Ive found the really good investors have no problems maneuvering during the events that your average investor can't handle. Its the long periods of time spent in periods of "fairer value" where they tend to get into trouble.

For starters, Appaloosa has admitted having a large position spread throughout various securities here. Second, this thread is turning into a laughable shitshow of voodoo talk.

It's odd, but I've seen some of the opposite. My brother attended Stony Brook. The kids on campus live in utter shit boxes. Room and board is like $15,000 a year. Yes, the equivalent of $1250 per month rent. While it kind of comes with a meal plan, that too is a crock. The main cafeterias charge per item, and Starbucks is still airport level price wise, burgers and sandwich pricing resembles Yankee Stadium, and once you run through your "allotment" that is included with room and board, your get billed. Easily tacking on another $3000 per semester. And oh yea, you don't even have housing during winter and summer breaks. So your adjusted rent is actually about $1700-$1800 per month. Move off campus? And you can find entire houses for $1500-$2000 per month and 1/2 bedroom places for $1000 per month. I saw the same thing when I attended school in Florida what seemed like ages ago. Schools are legit scams that prey on people who trust them.

Just snagged a decent starter chunk of GRIF as the opening spread was fairly narrow.