Gregmal

I mean if you go back to January and February, even early March, it was here, and people were fine, economy was strong.....This has largely been a man made circus heavily influenced by political biases. For most of the population, this is no worse than the flu. Yet you have people now with PTSD. I was out on the boat the other day and saw a couple, sunbathing on their personal property dock, wearing facemasks to go with bathing suits, even though nobody was within 500 ft! Pure insanity. Testing helps, sure. But when people get too scrupulous with creating stories from the numbers...thats the problem and what I'd imagine was Trumps point. I mean we're again seeing "SOARING CASES IN FLORIDA" blasted everywhere. I then go look at the data and its two freakin thousand people and most are in Miami-Dade Broward.... big whoop. "TEXAS ON THE BRINK OF DISASTER"... 1100 cases. Georgia was supposed to go to hell in a hand basket because they bucked all the advice of the pundits and "irresponsibly" opened way too early. Despite this, 52k total cases, 800 a day. Get a slight uptick? The fear-mongering starts in again. Its clear what the agenda is.

https://www.ft.com/content/6bd17811-3205-454e-89e4-953dce6b4dfe So their "employee only" fund does 60% a year...but their "rest of the people" fund, does this... https://www.ft.com/content/6bd17811-3205-454e-89e4-953dce6b4dfe

With several vaccine candidates stating it could be ready by September, I think these instances are less concerning than the ones a couple months ago. Passing time here is the important thing. Slowing the pace of spread. The areas will likely fluctuate, but the key thing is that A LOT of the US is naturally distanced. Many of the suburbs. Honing in on specific areas and activities for another 3-4 months is a lot easier and more defined a course of action than whatever the fuck it was everyone was guessing we do back in February and March. This is partially why I think the coastal states have purposely dragged their feet opening. Killing another week or two before roll out buys you a lot more than another week or two of time, if that makes sense.

It will be curious to see how these play out. I dont think any of these red states will go full shutdown over a few thousand cases a day or whatever. But I would imagine this would effect people mentally and as we ve seen the corporations who probably are acting out of 1) genuine concern and 2) not wanting the liability/blood on their hands; so they err on the side of caution such as SBUX did with many of its drive through location and what most corporate offices are currently doing. As with most socially responsible acts, this will obviously have a cost, which will be bore by shareholders as their allocation of the profits dwindles and in some cases, their per share ownership gets diluted. I'm also eagerly anticipating seeing everyone who missed the massive rally get excited and say "see! I was right to be in cash", after a 10-20% retreat. Which I will buy again. And others will probably completely miss. Maybe Buffett gets a mulligan. I agree about the psychology of the trading range as others have said. I dont see the recent highs being eclipsed for a while. So play the ranges.

shorted some AAL, and added to PINE, F shorts

You should add an option for "hid under a table in your basement with 6 feet of space separating each member of your family" so that maybe some of your friends can answer.

Well, we can start by looking at all the folks who have been sitting on huge hoards of cash and crying about valuations for a damn near eternity and compare that to the people who just regularly invest.... or we can get a little more granular and realize that valuation only matters IF you have an expected rate of return requirement AND your metrics are right. Just because YOU do not agree with the valuation metric YOU choose to evaluate a company on, doesnt mean that EVERYONE ELSE, is wrong. Being flexible and openminded is probably the best approach.

Make trading free Manufacture a massive market crash Lock people in their homes Give people free money Seems like a market manipulation scheme...

I'm taking my ball and I'm going home because you won't play the game I want to play. One of those sentences is a factual unbiased statement, the other is an opinion with a partisan narrative behind it. Yay news!

Why have cities always been desired? When travel and communication was more difficult and time consuming cities brought people and ideas together in one spot. Population density was a necessity for ideas to spread and serendipitous meetings to take place. Also it allowed an economy of scale for businesses. All of that still happens in cities, but, I don't know if that is still entirely necessary. People now meet and talk online just as easily as off, and with modern shipping the whole country is your marketplace. Cities offer lifestyles. For young, single people, having tons of other young, single people, and no shortage of things to do is quite a draw. You cant really match that anywhere else. City nightlife every night vs what? American Pie style house parties once a week? The big city offices are major draws for companies to recruit top talent. Its almost a suburban right of passage in the neighborhood I grew up in to move to Hoboken or NYC for a few years after graduating college. Typically then, once that is out of the system, its back to the suburbs to start a family.

Long positions can be hedged selling ITM calls at the strike in which you'd Strat buying again. Puts are almost always in the long run, a waste of money. A direct short sale with a long hedge is how I prefer to do it.

Ok but you stated: "From what I've seen generally the bunch that point that "ABC" has missed the opportunity just because the markets went up tend to correlate well with the bunch that claim that nobody could have seen "XYZ" event coming when asked why they don't have any money anymore." " So I was just wondering what examples the correlation was based off.

Buffet is probably waiting for Fed to pull the rug out so that he can go to work. Fine by me. And what leads him or anyone else to believe that they will? People having been saying these same things about the Fed, and the music stopping, and the "stock market doesnt match the economy" for the past decade. For a 90+ year old dude, Im not sure thats a great game to be playing. Or, as we've seen from time to time in the markets, the Fed may in fact do that, and the story doesnt play out the way the pundits think it will. Ive become more and more convinced that the rallying cry of "the markets are overvalued" is just a convenient and pride saving way of admitting "I missed the opportunity". From what I've seen generally the bunch that point that "ABC" has missed the opportunity just because the markets went up tend to correlate well with the bunch that claim that nobody could have seen "XYZ" event coming when asked why they don't have any money anymore. Also, pretty sure Buffett doesn't give a shit about "the game" or how he should play it. Like who? Can you name any? Because once again, we saw most of the guys on top of their game, even some of the more prominent bears buying stocks in March. We saw BX and BAM buying RE hand over fist. We saw the Saudi Wealth fund buying hotels and entertainment companies. And we saw the guy who invented "the game" who "doesnt give a shit" about it now, capitulate at the bottom....

Buffet is probably waiting for Fed to pull the rug out so that he can go to work. Fine by me. And what leads him or anyone else to believe that they will? People having been saying these same things about the Fed, and the music stopping, and the "stock market doesnt match the economy" for the past decade. For a 90+ year old dude, Im not sure thats a great game to be playing. Or, as we've seen from time to time in the markets, the Fed may in fact do that, and the story doesnt play out the way the pundits think it will. Ive become more and more convinced that the rallying cry of "the markets are overvalued" is just a convenient and pride saving way of admitting "I missed the opportunity".

Basically this. You can rationalize holding it for personal accounts or accounts with certain risk profiles. But as an active manager who charges fees it is very hard to justify holding this. Its amazing that folks would criticize Ackman here, when Buffett is the one who's approach and performance, is if anything, the thing to look at and question. I'm not critizising Ackman here. He played it well so far, obviously. I am just surprised he didn't sell Berkshire in March but apparently after the initial strong rally in the broader market if I read this right. Judging by the results it might have given him a better outcome, I just think the risk/reward is pretty unique now - more so than in March. I agree, and still own BRK. Its an interesting way to play a rebound in some of the hardest hit stuff, while having less risk than just outright buying banks and insurance stocks. I just think as a fund manager, you're getting paid to know how to navigate the rubbish and buy directly into those rebound names, which is exactly what Ackman did, almost perfectly, while Buffett was at first chasing his tail with the airlines, and then peeing in his pants. Buffett gets so many free passes though, its crazy. If you had the ability to trade back in time, you still couldn't have done a better job handling Feb/March/April than Bill Ackman.

Basically this. You can rationalize holding it for personal accounts or accounts with certain risk profiles. But as an active manager who charges fees it is very hard to justify holding this. Its amazing that folks would criticize Ackman here, when Buffett is the one who's approach and performance, is if anything, the thing to look at and question.

You will NEED stimulus to keep the economy afloat with everything shut down. So sure, its common sense and bipartisan. But when you have a rabid media controlling the narrative and big city governors mandating lockdowns/stay at home orders and refusing to let businesses open...thats where the game is being played. Theres still people apparently out there, shocked, and mentally scarred by headlines like "worst "insert data" since the Depression". Well, no shit. Thats what happens when you more or less make it illegal for businesses to operate and people to go out. While you're at it, shut the power line to your house. Then try to turn the light on. Then go be all exasperated and devastated because, "OMG we've never not had ALL the light switches in the house not working like this!". The solution is pretty straight forward and to the degree its not being implemented one can only deduce its deliberate. Its actually quite funny, these are the same folks who were whining about locking people in cages....now we're basically doing the same to law abiding citizens.

Its all intentional. As I said in the other thread, the left has gotten so mad and full of TDS that they are full throttle trying to destroy the economy just to get rid of Trump. Of course, most of them are in cash and bonds...preserving "their" interests while doing everything they can to destroy those of the American people, and further, making a full wave of new generations likely dependent upon the government. Its disgusting

High end doesnt really matter if you dont differentiate your brand. Whereas a handbag maker can have a following, being a seller of generally expensive stuff isn't unique. Is there any real difference between Neiman Marcus, Lord & Taylor, Nordstrom, etc? They sell the same things as everyone else in their competitive peer group(and often competitors within the same damn mall) so what reason to people have to go there? I'd probably even think it worth exploring how Barnes & Noble was able to transition some of its stores into cafe style libraries, hold social events, host clubs, etc, with reasonable success. Again, improving the customer experience.

If there is anyone who probably doesnt need to wear a mask, its probably folks who have secret service/security teams guarding them 24/7 as it is practically impossible for social distancing not to occur, especially if there is an effort to avoid shaking hands, which I dont know if that is the case or not. Either way, if some in the WH are doing this, great thats their choice. But its not really political and only becomes political because people try to label it as such. I live in a moderately right leaning but generally even split town. Everyone wears masks. The other day I stopped at a fish and hunting store to pick up some slip bobber ties. Place was run by the most red neck die hard Republicans you'll ever meet. Pretty sure the business was open despite not being essential. Whatever. Both husky pickup driving dudes had masks on. Trump can do something, and it doesnt have to automatically become standard for lefties to brandish that behavior as political and representative of "his base". I mean, infidelity certainly isn't exclusive to Republicans... Although I do agree, must be extremely psychologically difficult for true narcissists to wear the mask.

I'm not really sure how masks are a political issue. Its common sense, and low risk to just wear one. Given whats going on, its stupid not to, at least right now. What part of this involves politics?

My best guess at Wal Mart is its cheap as dirt, and basically a one stop shop for everything which is valuable from a time standpoint. Whole Foods is probably a good example of the anti Walmart. But they have all the other things mentioned above.

What's the difference between all of those? Whats the difference between a B/C mall and an A? Location would be a good guess, but thats not it. Its all about experience and offering a unique proposition to the customer. Its the same reason why Chic Fil a is thriving. How is it that the majority of QSR joints still haven't figured out that young, cheerful, exuberant employees drive customer satisfaction? One of the few that has sells crap burritos to a cult following...CMG, and is currently killing it. Put all those retailers side by side and the thriving all have unique offerings...great value, beautiful stores, vibrant and cheerful employees(who are well paid); then look at the have nots...disgruntled minimum wage workers, dark run down stores, overpriced junk stuffed in your face, and with regard to Abercrombie, douchebag teenagers with bad attitudes. Dont think so? Well why do mall based Apple stores continuously kill it? People just as easily can go buy their iPhones online? Experience. The idea that people are naturally social wasn't something I understood for a while. But when you look at things with that premise, you can see a way for a B&M retailer to take on Amazon. Some figured it out, others didn't. But Amazon cant compete with "its fun to go to the store"...unless of course, if they buy JC Penney. I dont know if you've ever been to Woodbury Commons, but little else, especially for a family, can compete with walking around a beautiful park like complex, where everyone from the kids to the wife can duck into a store that has something of interest to them, then dine at any number of excellent restaurants, while casually taking in a gorgeous 75 degree sunny day. Now compare this to your average Tanger Outlet.

That's not it, but you're about to reveal what your game is. And there it is, that's your game. You make personal attacks instead of debate points. Smear. A day later.... Are you sore that he spoke out against racists? It never bothered me. Trump is WAY WAY WAY more playing identity politics than Obama ever did, but somehow it doesn't seem to bother these guys. I wonder why? Gregmal repeatedly says that Obama created identity politics, but the Civil Rights movement and Feminists movements? Never heard of them. Remember Gregmal said he doesn't want a Trans person using the bathroom his daughter uses. Obama struck a nerve with GregMal, how dare Obama call him out for intolerance? That's what he is all about. LOL. Ideologically so hypocritical and warped, one day it s baselessly "your game is personal insults" and then the next its....wait for it... lob personal insults. This is the left. Like the previous poster said,

Balanced and pushbacks have nothing to do with it. Things are either true and supported by evidence, or false and not supported by evidence. They make logical sense, or they don't. Reality isn't up to a vote or a committee and not every side is automatically equally to blame for everything all the time, not all scandals are equally bad, etc. If Trump's a corrupt narcissistic sociopath who's not very sharp and way over his head, the "balanced" thing to do is point it out, not to go 'well, he's half good and half bad like everybody else". Whether we agree on this or not, this is an opinion. Making it your personal duty to gather every possible piece of information or some random jerk offs opinion which supports something that YOU believe, and scream it from the mountaintops is only indicative of a bias. Pretty easy exercise to determine a bias or agenda. Take a subject. Then find out how a company/person is covering it. Break down coverage into 2 categories. Opinion and Fact. Then 3 sub categories. Positive, Neutral, Negative. From there you will over time find a bias. Where do your Trump related postings fall?