Gregmal

This is fair and I genuinely do hope everyone makes money here. There's just a lotta stuff here from folks that more or less sounds like "I know she steals from me, and lies to me, and Ive gotten over the fact that she fucked my friends and regularly throws shit at me....but I still love her"... I think BB has a ton of different angles to it. Im closer to that at least because I was long into the buyout announcement. And frankly, it was one of the most bizarre things I've witnessed. The bid seemed like it was disingenuous and really just meant to prompt another buyer to come forward. He talked it up and then made a shitty offer like 5% above market. Then it turns out he couldn't even get financing(and I'm not sure he ever really knew he could get it, or even wanted it)...then the "take private" offer devolves into some stupid partial but remain public deal.....it was just really disgraceful and seemed like something got bungled and what transpired wasn't exactly according to the plan. IIRC that was at $10. In like 2013....

Exactly. Things are not and have not been done in the interest of shareholders. @Vikingkeeps saying something to the extent of how one needs to be open minded, change when the facts change, not look at the past, etc. I would challenge one to find someone here who demonstrates the above better than I do. I dont own too much "long term". Ive regularly criticized stuff and then when the facts changed, pivoted. I had years worth of back and forth with @John Hjorth and many of the Berkshire fans, criticizing Buffett for basically wasting shareholder's time with regard to capital allocation. And then....when the one variable that needed to change, did...I put more money behind BRK than I have any single investment in my life and proceeded to nail a 20%+ move inside of 4 months against half that on the S&P when the said security I went long hadn't outperformed the S&P or done 20% in an entire year in ages....Theres plenty of other examples. I shit all over AIV and then the corporate action occurred and within 12 hours went from disparaging them to long the stub and banked another 20%+ in a few months. Even a shitco like BRG, when its cheap and theres a variable change, I bought. I said earlier, I'm waiting for the same signal from FFH. The problem is the variable that needs to change, doesnt. We can talk about the situation changing or the facts changing, but bottom line, its the same folks year in and year out who are long FFH and pumping the tires and regularly talking about how this time is different and that just hasn't been the case. For all the "bought when shit hit the fan" talk, its telling that, as @Parsaddid, you could have bought the ultimate scumbag shitco BH...and done better than buying FFH. If "its cheap" is the reason to buy here, why this? There's a million things "cheap" with hair. Theres a good number that are "cheap" without FFH type hair. I mean just as an example, you have ALCO which trades at minimum 70% of NAV and you have a 5% yield, growing, essential business bolstered by FL land which is increasing rapidly in value...without any kingdom builder or friend/colleague enricher at the helm....I could name plenty more. Why the infatuation with FFH? Because its Canadian, and I also suppose because folks have made money with it before so theres a psychological bias as well. Otherwise, theres no reason.

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/gov-andrew-cuomo-says-nyc-182233250.html Its ok guv. Made the bed, now sleep in it!

You coulda just had $20 per share on BB via a good ole fashioned brokerage transaction! Now its like all that wildness never happened and instead of saying "yea we took advantage of the market"(like a shrewd operator does)...we need to hope for all these fundamental developments(which if nothing else, take TIME)

Eh, Ackman, with the exception of JCP, almost exclusively buys good if not great businesses. Target was a great business just bad timing. Valiant was brilliant(the fraud part was tertiary and really it was the political unravelling of the Pharma business model that did it in) and HLF in a similar note was shorting a shit business. Watsa DOES NOT generally buy great, or even good businesses. And as I said somewhere else, any idiot who's put a few bucks to work in the markets the past decade has had some home runs. Its been the greatest bull market ever. Saying that is dismissing the issue, and additionally, when you make a home run bet(I say bet because IMO Prem does not invest) hedging it off so that any upside is washed away by offsetting short positions is moot. Better off just doing nothing and buying back stock...as Buffett has started doing. My read between the lines is that when someone is doing something exotic but essentially neutral..IE long this shit short that shit, etc....they dont have a clue whats going on and are just doing something to do something... I stalk this shit because like I did with BRK a few years ago, you wait for the turn because there is a trade setup here if a few dominos fall....but the problem here is that FFH is not shareholder friendly, and they have a decade long track record of being shitty speculators. As others have pointed out too, theres also the whole vanity project theme, which if you look deep, is very troubling. They buy/deal quite often in businesses that have cultural significance in Canada and/or non financial incentives with friends and old colleagues. I aint giving this guy my money so he can save a failing Canadian icon and then flip a future home run to a friend for mid 8 figures.....

If it made money, count your blessing and be glad he didnt put it elsewhere!

As Ive said to a lot of folks, one of the more amazing things to me is that Prem Watsa still has the reputation he does. Media in Canada is obviously much different than in the US, although as we ve seen with Gates and Bezos...they too can be crafted. But generally speaking, if FFH was based in Virginia, or Alabama, or California..rather than Canada...man, IDK...it definitely doesnt have half the ardent defenders/loyalists it currently does, probably trades at .6x book, and is regarded as basically the company that cant do anything right. In regards to the outlook now, a recurring theme was "well if you bought March 2020(or insert big decline) then".... Except thats bullshit. I am all for a big trade. But as an investment, when all you have to hang your hat on is "well if you bought the bottom after everyone got TOO pessimistic"...thats not a good investment at all. A good INVESTMENT, shouldn't be reliant on getting the timing right because the business should be good enough to consistently create enough value to reward you. Folks need to start being honest with themselves here in regards to all the above.

Ding, ding, ding. Everyone keeps looking at whats going right, and theres a good amount of that. But thats not your relevant yo-yo activating input here. What will ultimately cause FFH to rerate? Personally, I think theres enough evidence on the table to say that its not: 1) insurance making boatloads of money 2) equity portfolio doing well 3) "value" investments returning to glory 4) rate changes Its still Prem. And nothing to me further demonstrates that nothing has changed there than the handling of Blackberry. Still cant admit he's wrong. Still cant/won't monetize an easy gift from the market. Still wants to do it his way. And thats all you need to continue to see a massive cloud over this.

Yea the bankers quite regularly seem to fall back on internal models which price these based on what phase a biotech company is in or how far away they are from generating revenue. Same thing happened with BEAM and not much later it was a 5 bagger. Not saying the same occurs with CRBU, but what I will say is that I would have paid more than the current market cap to own shares pre IPO. So I like it here. Doesnt take much to start moving the needle, as we just saw with NTLA the past year.

Because I always have to be that guy here.... theres lots, and has been lots of easy money out there folks. And over and over we keep hearing the same drum beat about FFH "eventually" catching fire....is there a need to be the one who finally gets blood from a stone? In other words, are you averse to just taking the easy route or something? We're well into a market where insurance is on fire, FFH equities have gone nuts, Watsa hasn't done anything crazy in a while....isnt it shit or get off the pot soon time? As they say...SHOW ME THE FUCKIN MONEY!

Caribou has long been a private market white whale of mine. I generally have pretty good luck snagging private shares in companies I like but this one always evaded me, including a few ROFRs. I wrote up the entire CRISPR theme here some years ago, and like most wildly successful investments here, it was largely an unpopular thread and IIRC met with a lot of skepticism or critique. At the time, you could buy every real public market CRISPR play for a valuation of less than $5B. Today that number is north of $40B or so. Theres been some major developments, but in terms of the players, the main thing is that EDIT is an established turd and NTLA has made some serious progress. The only two major players that Im aware of that remained non public were Caribou and Synthego. So now that CRBU is public I just bit the bullet and bought a position. I dont even think the valuation, net cash, is that egregious. Caribou has always kind of been more secretive and stands out IMO as having the greatest IP protections and pipeline to new CRISPR uses through the platform along with maybe BEAM.

Bought some food for the kids on the way to the shore this morning. When the heck did McDonalds become so expensive? Ordered 2 hash browns(used to be .99 each) and a sausage egg and cheese(IIRC always like $3...was featured in the Buffett HBO doc!) and it was $8.30! Then went across to Burger King and got a jr cheeseburger, 10 piece chicken nuggets(same 10 piece nugget at MCD are like $5), a rodeo burger, small fries, mozzarella sticks, and a chocolate milk...for $8.74. I dont know why anyone would ever eat at MCD...only attraction used to be how cheap the food is. Now the same dogshit, plastic play food is more expensive than Burger King or Wendys and both of the later choices are significantly better quality.

I think it depends on a few things. Mainly, your time horizon for the trade and also secondarily the liquidity of the investment. For instance, there was some concern about ESRT management when I made that investment. I found that to be misplaced, but nonetheless ultimately figured that given the dynamic of what was occurring in the world, and the uniqueness of the ESRT assets, that a 1-3 year investment didnt need a good management because at such depressed valuations, some value could be destroyed and it could still work out. Also, I think how good or capable a team is, is largely subjective. Theres the upper 5%, IE the Buffetts, Bakers, Lourenco Goncalves types....and there's the lower(won't name names)...but most companies fall in between. I used to speak with management teams and NEOs all the time. But its a waste. No one tells you, hey Im a scumbag just looking to line my pockets. They all generally say the right things and by nature, even the bad ones, spend most of the time doing the right things because why not? Its only in rare situations where theres a conflict of interest that can cause a lot of damage, IE making a terrible acquisition just to grow the size of the company, issuing shares, etc....So while I look for management Im comfortable with, IE PCYO Mark Harding is a boss....I dont place as much weight on it as you would think. I mean perfect example is Dolan....hes so polarizing. Tons of people run their mouths about Dolan in a negative way, however when pressed for examples of bad behavior...I haven't heard anything of merit...What? He's an asshole to Charles Oakley? Whereas I can name tons of things he s done that put him in elite company in terms of creating value...nevertheless, maybe the haters are correct? Hard to tell and ultimately, when I look at MSGS(another 10%+ position for me) I just see the Knicks and Rangers as indestructible, one of a kind assets that even an idiot cant destroy.

I feel like this entire comment is so on the money the only thing to do is +1 it. And to @BG2008 points, yea...I definitely think RE is a great way to wade oneself into the unraveling of many popular misconceptions about debt and concentration. I also think the people who are afraid of concentrating in a stock do so out of lazily accepting a narrative. "Its just a stock"....Well, when you get down to the nitty gritty, if you're able to conceptualize your ownership as assets...same as privately owning a SFH, this sort of mentality gets put to rest. The key of course is to make sure its bulletproof...no lingering liabilities or debt that can take your asset away, no albatross obligations, etc. But its one of the reasons I tend to stay focused on small caps. Its easy for me to internalize owning 900 acres of an MPC and the water rights with PCYO. Fuck if I know deep down what I really own with some $10B+ software company who issues stock like its going out of style. Thats why one could be a 20% position and the other might just be 2-3%. Also to SDs point, I consider myself kind of the king of the 25-50% move, but outside of the MSG universe and HTL....couldnt hit a real compounder/multi bagger to save my life in terms of doing so with a 5%+ position. My way of compounding is basically taking 10-20% and going from(just using last year as an example) GRIF 35-50, to ESRT from 7-10, to AIV from high 4s to low 6s, to ALCO from $30 to 40s....I just dont have the skill or the vision others have in that area to see how tech co ABC goes from 14 to 400 over 10 years. Also important I think for folks with concentration is to leave money out of it. Investing really is about odds and percentages. Its the same as playing poker. If you react to the amount of money being bet, you'll suck a fat one. If you react to what the setup and probable outcomes are, you'll do well. Too many people get mental when they start thinking in terms of "six/seven figure amount of money" vs, super high probability 25% allocation. Just some thoughts. Good commentary so far.

Thought this would make an interesting topic. Theres good ideas, and then there's punch card ideas. I think any reasonably capable investor, if they sit down for an hour, can find ideas that are good enough, and actionable enough to make money. But those are just general ideas, hardly bet the farm type ideas. 0-3% allocations. However, every so often, we all come across a company, a sector, a theme, or just a super high probability setup where you know you're going to make money. My question for folks is, whats the most % wise you've put into a high conviction idea, and whats your typical high conviction allocation? For me, I think if you're not doing at least 5%, but probably at minimum 10%....you're wasting your time. You can compound 1-2% ideas at 50% annually and your still not going to get rich any time soon. But generating alpha on 10%+ positions gets things done. A once every couple year type idea I'll generally be comfortable going up to about 40%. But average, 1-2 type situations a year, Im generally in between 10-15%. The only things I weigh when doing this are probability of a profitable outcome, and cost to fund the idea. For example, a SPAC at 9.80 may take 18 months but is a guaranteed 2%. To me, a waste of time because my Margi costs 1% and the net IRR sucks. But Berkshire at $230 with any decline a buying opportunity means buy hand over fist. Or FRPH cruising into a decade long tailwind trading still at covid prices. Or ALCO trading flat for a decade and at a 20% discount to a 2013 change of control deal despite the core biz about to inflect at 10x earnings and the land value going parabolic. These are 12-40% allocation ideas Ive put on in the past 12 months. Curious how others express themselves when they find a money tree.

CRBU

Got loose confirmation that there is indeed some retard with a semi sized fund liquidating MSGE, so Im buying more. Added little bit more ALCO as well. Shorted more CLF puts.

Maybe opportunistic...who knows. But PSTH looks like a pretty good cash alternative with the above mentioned situation in mind. Im closing on a new property in about a month and pulled half the down payment from non core stuff and chucked it there. Rest I'll borrow from IB at 1%.

Ya you and I definitely agree on this. Take that whole "textbook allocation" they say to put in bonds and just buy RE with a 30 year fixed! 1/3 stocks, 1/3 bonds. 1/3 RE should really just be 50/50 or in my case 70/30 RE/stocks.

Horrible numbers. Can't believe people are actually buying this here.

Look at high quality bank or REIT preferred stocks.

1/21/22 $12.50 APTS calls.

Yea me too(not calls but more shares). Looking at more aggressively selling some puts too. Its kind of dumb whats going on right now. Are people really stupid enough to get tricked into selling their stocks again? Today the market plummeted...in the real world home prices are at records, gas is the highest its been in years, HRC is near ATHs, and folks are going out like never before. Seems bizarre for the market to be so caught off guard by a predictable July 4th surge...

Yea gonna have to confer with the scientists on how to "float it"...LOL

Just put another 3/2 waterfront townhome under contract. 30 year fixed FTW. YOLO.