Gregmal

I saw your post on NVR, which I'm looking at now after looking at the single-family building materials companies (BLDR and BMCH) and concluding that they are poor businesses (and in BLDR's case, over-levered). I've also seen you post about FRPH, which I've followed for some time. Any others that you believe are particularly attractive right now? Will open up the book a bit because I've found you to be a high quality contributor to a few ideas I also follow. In no specific order or size; NVR, FRPH (as you've seen) MSG, GM(glutton for punishment), CTO, NXPI, BX, GOOG, XPLT(not really down a lot but GARP IMO), IBKR, AAL(sub in an airline of your choice, I happen to like the shittiest one), CLF(holy f*cking future cash flow machine w/ DTA's)+MSB, and MX... Can get into more detail later but didn't want to write a book write now... Thanks for sharing. I've owned XPLT for years and agree it seems reasonably priced despite the run up over the last year. Given your interest in FRPH and CTO, have you looked at Howard Hughes? It's been written up enough that I'm sure you know the story. I own it for the underlying asset quality (Ward Village and the Seaport in particular, but also the Texas and Las Vegas MPCs, which I believe is a business model that improves over time as the development matures). I don't know whether it's cheap right now, but Old Dominion Freight Lines (ODFL) has long interested me as a high quality, well run business, and it's also down significantly from its highs. HHC is probably front and center on the buy list. I always seem to have an over-concentration in RE stuff and as a result have put off buying it. I have also felt it was a tad overrated(maybe ahead of itself is a better choice of words) the past couple years but do agree; as of right now it's served it's time in the penalty box and should do well from here. More broadly speaking though, it just seems everywhere I look you can find good businesses now trading at low-mid teens multiple and many in the single digits. The tax cuts are a big reason, but even rolling them back, I see many opportunities to own things that years ago traded much higher. Coming back to HHC, 5 years ago it traded around 110... GM ex-Cruise trades at like 2-3x. NXP 8x despite being square in the middle of some major trends. GOOG now looks like AAPL a few years ago. It just seems like the market is saying all these things are going to hell. If things stay the same or even tail off moderately I think there's outsized gains to be had. I could always be wrong though.

I saw your post on NVR, which I'm looking at now after looking at the single-family building materials companies (BLDR and BMCH) and concluding that they are poor businesses (and in BLDR's case, over-levered). I've also seen you post about FRPH, which I've followed for some time. Any others that you believe are particularly attractive right now? Will open up the book a bit because I've found you to be a high quality contributor to a few ideas I also follow. In no specific order or size; NVR, FRPH (as you've seen) MSG, GM(glutton for punishment), CTO, NXPI, BX, GOOG, XPLT(not really down a lot but GARP IMO), IBKR, AAL(sub in an airline of your choice, I happen to like the shittiest one), CLF(holy f*cking future cash flow machine w/ DTA's)+MSB, and MX... Can get into more detail later but didn't want to write a book write now...

At some point Musk will have to decide whether it values having a real business, versus a temporary valuation on it's shares. One is sustainable if managed right, one isn't.

A lot of carnage, but there definitely isn't much IMO for the "stocks are expensive" crowd to whine about anymore. Obviously this is predicated upon the tax cuts staying in place, but there is more high quality stuff for sale right now than I've seen in a LONG time. Valuations probably on par with 2010-2012, if not better in many areas.

I've always thought TSLA would be wise to buy a real automaker if nothing else for the synergies, distribution network, and oh yea, profits. Doing so would all but eliminate most of the major risks Tesla faces. That said, I understand they seem to be allergic to profits, so they continue to choose the path most perilous.

The interest rate whining is absurd. Trump is right that it's cooling the economy a bit, but that's the whole point. But there's a lot of stupidity out there otherwise. People sent the real estate market through the roof a decade plus ago buying homes at 6% rates. A decade earlier they were over 8%. So yea, the bozos bidding down homebuilders to 5x earnings because of 5% mortgages? Pure stupidity. Otherwise, this is largely IMO the product of the people at CNBC needing something to talk about. Also, god forbid savers finally get some interest! It's been pretty well documented that the Fed really doesn't have a clue what it's doing, and that people claiming to be calling a top, or "peak cycle" are full of shit.

BX, FRPH

This was epic. Antics aside, Goncalves is the man and the definition of a shareholder friendly CEO. What he's done here is remarkable.

These are both highly speculative and require the assumption you'll lose every penny, so size accordingly. But, I think MLNT and TDW.a/b warrants fit the title profile.

MSG and CIBR

VIC is a great resource and the discussions are IMO more valuable than the write ups. You have other incredibly bright minds that can all interpret new data on the fly and give you a pretty well rounded idea of were "the market" consensus is. Honestly never heard or used the other site.

Looks like a small float with no options(at a very brief glance). That said, the ATM offering is likely to put somewhat of a lid on this. Doing a 15M offering with a 30M+ valuation is huge. Additionally, ATM means these will be dumped directly into the market, rather than placed.

LOL California is a great example of what will happen if we let the liberals run rampant. What a disaster. Best part is when they "threaten" to secede! Please, leave. Although the Democrats would never let that happen because they'd lose like 25% of their base.

Pay for it. I have heard they have different rates for different people.

My thoughts have always been that coming of age during the financial crisis would be a blessing. You basically get into things on a generational reset. Housing prices are cheap, employment would start out challenging but be in expansion for for the next 10-20 years, and more importantly, you'd have fresh in your mind the lessons learned by others during the GFC. I never thought it would be an excuse.

A car salesman makes his living selling cars. Is he really supposed to tell you that you can't afford it? That the car is inferior to a competing product? Why are mortgage brokers, real estate agents, etc different. I've spent a lot of time around these types of people. If these are the folks we are relying on the responsibly guide the country, we're screwed... To the point made prior, there are way too many kids that go to college simply to have a social life and avoid starting a career. This I believe is the crux of many of the liberal arts majors. I mean it is known, at least I certainly did, if you want to make decent money, don't be an x,y, or z major. Its part of the stupidity and selfishness that people choose to do so anyway. And spare me the do what makes you happy/ what you are passionate about nonsense. I am passionate about hockey cards. If I decided at 19 to open a sports card and memorabilia business I'd be a moron...

It makes sense that if you have to pay off your $70K student loans you'll have less money for a down payment and will then have to delay home ownership. Tuition was nowhere near this high 20 years ago. I wouldn't even say it's that. It's that the $600 a month loan payment makes it very difficult to get the debt to income ratio where it needs to be. Given that loans don't go away for 15 years or so, that takes you to your mid 30's and if you make $75k a year it eats up about 25% of the room in the borrowing equation.

Yea I think it's really tough to work something with the puts in terms of a purchase. They're just way too expensive. IMO the money is in selling the options, whether it be puts, or calls, or both, especially if you can trade around in the stock and also collect some of the rebate. I believe there are now 2020 options available. Was told the borrow today was near 80% a month. Just incredible. Makes the Volkswagen squeeze look like child's play. This has a $25B valuation on 23M in sales.

I guess one of the more interesting aspects here is this. If you're getting 30% a month, or even more in some cases, doesn't that incentivize people to hold even further? INcredible stuff here

Insanity LOL $220

Don't rip it though. Then they'll all go "at least read the book first. It's got some real sources!" LOL Partisan hacks getting rich off Trump. Only joke is on the people paying for this nonsense.

https://nypost.com/2018/09/18/andrew-mccabe-is-planning-to-release-his-own-trump-book/ LOL everyone is trying to get rich telling stories about Trump. Liberty, I expect you'll give us the review when you get it?

Borrow is around 600%. Never seen that before.

https://nypost.com/2018/09/17/paul-singers-hedge-fund-backs-away-from-athenahealth-deal/ He's back at it again with the antics. I feel like if you gave any half competent person $10B+ they could do what Elliot does. Basically just trash companies/board, litigate, and play poker trying to force sales.

Reminisces of a Stock Operator