Gregmal

I think the false aspect of @Viking post above is with respect to “all this is happening because the Fed is talking”…. what is “all this”? The Fed s been talking about rate hikes for almost a year and last year the market did 25%. We ve pulled back like 3-4% to start the year and are like 10% off even on the overvalued Nasdaq. In a certain day and time this was really just something markets did. I remember the flash crash in 2010 maybe, when stuff like ACN went to a penny or something nuts. Dow lost 1000 points mid day FOR NO REASON! Everyone tried to make up a reason for it but really it was just markets doing market things and algos going berserk. Now I feel like folks spent way too much time trying to “survive” what was once just considered a standard pullback or correction. It, in terms of a market or whatever, seems to be acting like a market can act from time to time. The last Fed meeting and notes were all pretty much orchestrated and laid out a plan that’s been known for months. Tech has been blowing up since February of 2021. That was the start of the bubble deflating. It actually I thinking started with the vaccine announcement if you followed stocks like ZM and PTON…they never saw those highs again. But it’s not like anything new has been happening really. I would just caution ascribing too much to the narrative of the week which is currently “it’s the Fed”. A pullback can just be a pullback. Corrections happen. Tech garbage that was getting destroyed is still getting destroyed and excessive valuation is being questioned. This is a good opportunity to pick up stuff getting dumped over fear of “the stock might go down tomorrow”. Maybe another leg down happens but I don’t see anything fundamentally having changed. I do feel like we ve conditioned a generation of investors to run for the hills at the first sign of turbulence. I should start getting everyone their “i survived the 10% crash of January 22” shirts though. Would be nice gifts.

Ya I agree on Nasdaq for sure. Was talking with a few folks today. Old COBF friend Cardboard loaded up on Jan 28 expiration $500 Netflix puts and just made a fortune. But the other point was how AMZN might be the trophy elephant. Why? It’s the last stock anyone is talking or thinking about shorting. And it’s growth is behind it, EPS lacking, and yea there’s also a possibility some of this monopoly stuff starts coming home to roost. It’s not a great absolute short, and I no longer short for the sole intention of making money but rather to hedge, but between that and AAPL I think a half intelligent gent can easily get some crash/correction protection in size and cheap.

I love how Grantham arrives at his S&P value by using a trend line LOL. Guy never has anything new to say and what he says is always from the same script.

Ive always found anecdotal stuff useful. The only question I ask ahead of it, is does this experience reflect that of a typical person in a typical situation. IE is this indicative of the broader market. Whats cool with housing, is you can go make a few calls and get to the bottom right away. Take a brokerage statement(or another proof of resources) and contact a few agents anywhere you're looking to invest, letting them know you have the funding to buy already secured. In a day or two you can start making offers. See how easy or difficult it is to buy a house right now. Spoiler alert: its definitely not easy.

Well more importantly, I dont think KO or AXP is a HTB.

I’ll preface this by saying that I probably trade just as much as anyone, so I appreciate all datapoints, but when I step back and put the following into perspective, I find it really amusing how much focus the average investor has(or doesn’t have). Since 2018 we’ve gone from ….sell everything the fed is tapering(wrong call) to OMG next Great Depression(wrong), to OMG the economy is too good! At a certain point it’s just like STFU and focus on investing longer term LOL

In that case I'd agree. But short interest and borrow rates fluctuate like the temperature and are typically short term phenomenon. You are probably 99% accurate, at least from my long list of recollections in that the long term prognosis is terrible if you track those companies. That said, even with eventual 0 SHLD, every instance I can remember where borrow went over 50% annually it was a great long for the next few weeks. Man I miss that one. We'll probably never find out but I always had a suspicion something was going on there cuz Eddy almost always waited for the borrow spike to drop a form 4. Then you'd get a 50% rip. Rinse, repeat. TLRY too that mega squeeze started after the borrow went from like 25% to 500% in a few days. Then the shares went from about $80 to $250.

When I check daily lists of largest borrow increases the first thought is to typically short near dated OTM puts. But thats just me.

Eh there's actually a good bit of evidence that spiking short interest/borrow rate is bullish. It prompts short covering from the cheapskates who dont want to pay it which then jacks up the bid which then results in the squeeze due to a rising share price and lack of locate as previous locates get sold. High borrow cost is one of the things you look for is you're looking to go long a squeeze and its also one of the things you are taught to avoid if looking to enter a short.

Followed it loosely but other than buying a few at 17 AH Friday that I dumped at the open Monday morning haven't owned it and dont know enough about it to do more than stupid little swing trade. Some of the stuff Ive been hearing about and people Ive been talking to indicate that the opportunity really lies locally and in general if you can find app integrated stuff. For younger kids especially, content focused streaming service type education. It is for sure interesting but niche type stuff at the moment and would certainly be on the private market side. I am unaware of anything public that really fits this angle.

You can hold fully paid for securities in type 2 though.

Nursing has and always will be in demand though, so its decent. Personally I'm looking for opportunities to make private investments in schooling or education platforms for K-12. One thing COVID really exposed is how much of a joke the public schooling systems are. Outside of being slaves to the scumbags at the unions, they're just plain second rate compared to other options. Record number of kids are currently being homeschooled or enrolled in private schools. There will be fortunes made with this, and not in the scummy for profit college type way. You just gotta dig a little harder to find the opportunities.

Canada lectures us from a paper pulpit. The US is largely an importer of low quality immigrants. Canada? Not so much. If anything, I’d like the US to be more like Canada.

Been a boring last 12 months for the story and should continue to be for the next couple Qs, but at this price I view it as a reasonable place to again start going overweight in anticipation of the future catalysts.

This could end up being a long list, no?

PCYO

^really interesting company at quick glance, thanks. Worth a further look. Lots of times its those exact types that go on crazy runs and then get taken out shortly after everyone sees how special it is.

Been covering these lately. Played out mostly as expected. SPCE is still probably a zero but I’ve scaled back the total portfolio enough that I don’t really need as much hedge exposure as I had/have on.

gaming is going to be a MONSTER theme for the foreseeable future? Todays ATVI deal just another, but gaming and its ecosystem to me look like that new hyper growth area where everyone is starting to rush for gold. Everyone who's anyone in the corporate tech world has been tipping this recently. Of course the catch is in a tech sell off, you've got some headwinds. But longer term, we are moving into an era where I think this could be almost revolutionary. In the 80s you had Pacman. When I was growing up it was Madden. But things still weren't fully integrated. The next decade is where you start seeing generations of kids who've been raised on electronics and by extension a full wave of people who know nothing but their phone/tablet/laptop. I guess this may be me starting to see this thing theyre calling the "meta verse"....IDK. Im not totally sold on all the offshoot stuff or degree to which people are optimistic on VR. But gaming to me seems to be a modern age cigarette. Its cool and my friends are doing it. You do it sometimes out of boredom. Its expensive. And its addictive. Definitely something Im following. Curious if anyone else sees this too and what they think. Nintendo and Sony seem like stupid obvious blue chips who get no respect in the US because of their foreign status.

Yup there’s just so many different avenues of optionality which is part of the appeal to me. I generally try to stagger it. Have some that are maxed on the LTV and some that are getting paid down. Don’t think I’d ever find an advantage in being fully paid off though.

Yea IDK. Ive long been fascinated by the Canadian market, but with US RE where it is, I dont have to worry about it cuz the value proposition is obvious and its not one that compels me to be buying in Canada. I would eventually like something off the grid in the New Foundland/Labrador area though. Probably a summer retirement home or something. But those remote bubblefuck places aint exactly expensive now anyway IMO. Its probably more expensive over a 10 years stretch doing the commutes for a seasonal home out there than actually owning it. Like WTF, $300k? Actually its hockey dollars not even USD. https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/14-14A-Pidgeons-Rd-Marystown-NL-A0E-2H0/2067469241_zpid/?

Yea those were thoughts I had too. Admittedly knowing very little about the specifics of the Canadian RE financing system, but damn….must be good being a mortgage broker. Basically an annuity stream with all those refis.

Yea these are all good points. Quality is paramount in non traditional investment markets. A close second is knowing your liquidity parameters because these are often NOT liquid markets in a traditional sense. A broker at minimum is gonna charge 10% and sometimes as much as 30%. But to your point, with the right quality of asset, it doesn’t matter because of the pool you are swimming in. Another good example is Persian rugs.

What I mean is, what prevents Canada or other countries from replicating this? A lot gets made of rising rates but for everyone who already has a mortgage in the US, this is actually a positive thing if you’re 30 year fixed. But if you have to refi in 5 years or have an adjustable, maybe not so much. So while everyone worries about when the Canada bubble pops, I think it’s worth pondering what gets done in response to something like that. 30 year fixed mortgages solve a lot of the problems. Crisis or crashes aren’t really that scary if you can see how they get resolved. Governments consistently and especially recently, are more and more willing to provide soft landings. So I was just spitballing a bit what kind of options do they have if the “bubble” that’s been going for like 20 years all of a sudden bursts?

A post about the interest rate risk via Canada housing related finance got me thinking….why aren’t there US type 30 year mortgages in Canada? If rates rise and people cant afford refis what are the odds there would be a government push for them to solve the issue? I am not familiar with the market in Canada but how feasible is it to eventually see a similar government sponsored product like this?