Gregmal

I tend to agree and am at least marginally more optimistic this seems to have gone from 0-60 in like a few days. While there is a degree of self mutilization that comes from scaring the bejesus out of everybody, it should also now, stem the spread. EVERYTHING in NY is closed. I think local governments have done a reasonable job jumping in front of this here. To expect anything from Trump other than pushing for stimulus and rate cuts, is stupid. He doesnt have a clue and will likely only be there to try to take credit. But anyone saying people arent taking this seriously just isn't paying attention. Every place I go has attendants with spray bottles and wipes. I've gotten emails from 7/8 banks I use outlining their responses. Almost all offices are closed and people are being told to work from home. So on one end, the fear mongering and hysteria can be short term damaging, on the other end, it forces the pain to the forefront, but will likely result in a quicker resolution.

The 12 month low is just a figment of where you choose to start. At tomorrows open, we'll basically be trading at around where we were in Q4 2017.

At least now we have some high profile celebrity endorsements! If nothing else, public people having it will shed a lot more light on the degree of this thing.

So the big question is, does Tom Hanks get let back into the US?

Jesus NBA season cancelled. Insanity.

That would be $38. We are pretty close. but then, we also have VNO at 50% of NAV. Choices, choices. Maybe I'm overthinking it, or perhaps biased in the first place, but Im paranoid that forcing everyone to work from home will awaken a sleeping giant. Especially all those dinosaur companies who still currently shun the idea. Once they see how easy it is to make that transition perhaps this presents problems for traditional office assets. Retail will at least see folks come back. Who really wants to go back to the office?

This+ an LOL at the folks stocking up on perishables. They do go bad... Maybe this is some covert economic stimulus scheme. People will be buying 2 weeks worth of crap for the next 6 months...I had to wait 15 minutes at Dicks Sporting Goods this weekend to pickup some braided fishing line.

FRPH at book would be lovely.

PCYO Edit: also just grabbed some GOOG

Sold a few WING puts(to close)

LOL yup. That and the hysteria, along with its mouthpieces, tend to let the day to day volatility, inspire their confidence. Kind of the antithesis of investing. But hey, are you ready for extinction?

In respect to the NYC area, I dont even think many are waiting for government action. Check out all the big offices that have already ordered folks to work from home. Almost all the financial firms, including Point 72 and SkyBridge already have this in place. Of course, Id gander the most at risk of catching this and brining it back here are the douchey financial charlatans who travel the world attending "conferences"(aka parties) on the company tab.

Funny, my wife was reading on the iPad and groaned "I just want to read normal news and the only thing, everywhere, is this coronavirus stuff"...my thoughts? Fucking tell me about it. Try being a stock market participant the past two weeks! Anyhow, finished my nightly outreach on this dreaded topic with a few contacts From an NJ hospital with 3(now 2 cases after 1 death) paraphrasing Doctors dont really know what they are doing. They are constantly in contact with people over in China seeking advice. Hardly overwhelmed, but simply don't have a clue as no one has ever seen this type of thing before. Some are totally freaked out, some are of the thought this is not that big of a deal if handled properly. The main dude who's been all over the news is still in iffy shape, although they are optimistic he peaked yesterday.

I'm not leaning towards selling it. This isn't the Spanish flu which primarily targeted people in their 20s,30s,40s and largely left the children and elderly alone. The level of panic will subside once the general public comes to understand this. I am fearful for my parents who are in their 70s and 80s (my father has had pneumonia in the past 6 months) and I have two close social contacts with stage 4 cancer undergoing chemotherapy. However, I don't fear for myself, my wife or my kids . (I remarried in January). https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/10/white-house-wont-explain-how-it-would-pay-for-trumps-proposed-payroll-tax-holiday.html Underwhelming... futures -500 Trump is still a predictable putz. Very, very large numbers...details? Nil.

https://nypost.com/2020/03/10/coronavirus-vaccine-could-be-ready-by-april-chinese-officials-say/ Interesting. I guess thats the upside to having this escape from a lab....they've already been developing a cure and the normal 12-24 month clock it typically takes started years ago..j/k

This is obviously a complex issue and one not to be taken lightly. Its also an interesting case study of what happens when you give finance guys cool looking charts, trendy buzz words, and Twitter(the land where you can find any number of experts with opinions that support your own already conceived conclusions). Fun times. Ive also found interesting that at first, the narrative was, China botched this. Then, it was China cant be trusted. Now, its China handled this better than we could. The truth, who really knows. But South Koreas figures are promising. As are several other countries. Italy on the other hand, a mess. But didn't we already know Italy was a mess even before the virus?

Eh, I tried to learn a bit from the past two rallies and hedged a bit into the close. Monday-Tuesday still = lower low formations. Which could set up for an interesting finish to the week and another wahoo of a Monday. Who knows. Its been a roller coaster though.

This is probably a much more reasonable and level headed way of putting it. I agree. At least the second half. There is no reason at all not to be taking precaution given that most of the ways to mitigate this, cost us nothing but a little bit of effort.

Topped off MSG to about a 15% position. Always been overweigh this one, but what is value investing if buying the entire thing for less than the value of the Knicks isn't a margin of safety.

I’m just referring you people’s ultimate level of let down with The Donalds plan. Seems to be a classic setup of over promise under deliver. I also agree this is overblown. There’s dudes talking about extinction ROFLMAO If you are really worried about extinction the last thing on your mind should be fucking around in the stock market...

Have yet to find a person not leaning towards selling the news on Donny’s big announcement. Little to do with the potential economic effects, and much more to do with his penchant for being a grand exaggerator and salesman.

Hard disagree. There are pockets of "interesting". But the most obvious ones, financials and energy, have material risk. Good stocks are still selling at a premium. Booking.com is going to see revenue freefall this year to COVID, but it outperformed the indices today. This correction is not about COVID. What I think people are missing is that corrections are normal. Covid is not material for most companies. True. Life will return to normal in 12-18 months. But SPY was up 30% last year. The value of SPY didn't increase 30% in one year. There was enormous complacency built into valuations. Covid is just the trigger for a necessary correction. I raised a bit of cash today. Hoping to raise a bit more tomorrow. I am still expecting a few more pockets of opportunity. The virus has not hit the US yet. At least in people’s minds. Testing is still not being done in large numbers, especially in hot zones like Washington. So the reported numbers are low and everyone feels good. Think of where Italy was about 2 weeks ago. Think about where their stock market was and what people were saying. Look at what is going on now... big change. What a surprise! So far Viking, out of everyone, I have to give you the most credit for your prescience with respect to timing. You've been adding modestly it seems, but still mostly cash. Regardless of what the reason was, you've been right about exit/entry so far. What do you see as the driving factor though? It still sounds like corona, but earlier you indicated, with which I agree, that today was predominantly an oil related shellacking. Last week we seemed to have swings because of the Sanders defeat. But overall I think most merit is given to the "we just needed an excuse to correct" reasoning? Curious to your thoughts going forward.

Well some more anecdotal stuff, a story from a friend who works in one of the tri state area hospitals. An existing patient, one that has been making news lately, is in quarantine and being administered remdesivir along with cocktails of other experimental stuff, mostly over the counter. It is not really working(yet at least), but he remains in somewhat stable condition. However there are now several additional people in quarantine because a confused old man wandered into his room, chased by his wife trying to corral him...

When, last week? ;D ;D ;D old habits