Gregmal

Well, its hardly a secret that the virus is less deadly. FL for instance has been having an outbreak for what? 2 months now? Texas the same. If we want to talk about being intellectually dishonest...shouldnt we get a follow up from the folks who confidently sneered about "waiting 2 weeks" back in June? I mean, its not like you need to give Trump credit for the death rate being much lower, so I dont see why its so hard even acknowledging it.

With respect to economic activity, and return to normal...I think it will be very binary. Once you have a vaccine(s), tourism will get the green light, airlines will see pickup, offices will start filling back up, movie theaters open, people will run back to bars/clubs at full capacity(not that they haven't tried to already). But yes, there will definitely be gaps and probably a good number of people who refuse...but the important components, from an investment perspective, get green lighted. The government will step away. As Ive brought up a number of times, the market fears the government shutdowns, not really the virus. There's a reason you see even shitty old retail/restaurant assets getting flipped at 5-7 cap rates in Florida and Texas, whereas the same one in NYC have no market.

Why? ... ... You can only try to hide from reality for so long... Honestly, to me a pretty mind boggling thought exchange here on CoBF. [i want data!, m0re & m00re data! - It doesn't in that context matter what I've already got!] It's all about reading the script [already written! - so far!] on the Wall! [to move on, to "take it from here", to adopt, adapt & improve!] I think when you remove narratives, which are quite popular, there is indeed writing on the wall. Look at the timeline of Fauci's statements on vaccine. Look at the data coming out from companies/countries running that race. I think we almost certainly have a vaccine, and its most likely widely available late '20/early '21. From day 1, governments all over, especially here, have been wildly unwilling to shoot straight about whats really happening with regard to the "behind the scenes" stuff. At this point I would think the plan is to temper expectation, and then surprise to the upside, just in time for the election. This same pattern has played out over and over with this administration, 100% willing to manipulate data to their benefit. Most recently with all the China trade nonsense. I think the states kind of have a clue too, with some taking different approaches than others. Some...let things stay as is, who cares, vaccine will arrive soon....and others, like NY/NJ, etc...buy time/delay. The other side, if you dont think this its accurate is pretty darn grim indeed. Things as simple as phase 2/3 stuff, restaurants with the outdoor seating.... how do you do that in January at 20 degree temps? You'd literally have to shut everything for 6 months....or completely open it all back up. Very binary IMO.

Oh you have no idea about small but often. For some of the "corona will pass" trades, I've got a 6 month(from March) expected time frame for the shenanigans and market gyrations to play out. And subsequently a similar purchase horizon until full positions are accumulated, with the max size for any one position being about 7.5%. Lots and lots of buying! Only one exception was SPG and and MSGN. Both(SPG at $50 and MSGN at $13) I figured if $50/$13 aint good, neither will be anything below that. But a bunch of others... a million purchases.

Maybe people expect their sanitizer sales will sky rocket... https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/24/coronavirus-kegs-are-going-bad-boston-beer-has-a-solution.html I think SAM May benefit from the demise of some craft brewers. As far as I can tell, booze sales have been pretty good so far during the pandemic. I certainly did my share buying beer, wine and cider. The valuation is egregious, but that’s true for a lot of stocks including those with much crappier fundamentals than SAM. I wish I had gone long this one at ~$460. Their sales have been gangbusters. They have category killers in craft beer, ciders and now hard Selters. Aaaand maybe, hoping to hit $12 in EPS for CY20. Jim Koch and insiders continue to dump their shares all over. Cant really think of too many better recession hedge stocks than this. Competition is coming from all over with the new seltzer releases....just like it did with soda and cider. I didn’t even realize the stock is up ~25% today until now , my comment was solely based on business performance. In my opinion, they have done a great job with the Dogfish acquisition and now with Truly Selters, which at least here near their. Home base (MA) seems to be winning over White claw in terms of display. They are also grabbing market share in beers (call it craft beer or not). Anyhow, as a consumer and just an observer how they do on retail or just looking at their financial performance, they do a great job.I can see them using their stock to roll up region craft beer producers (maybe Sierra Nevada to get a west coast stronghold) and growing organically with new products. They are clearly better operators than TAP or BUD. Eventually, they may get into spirits too. The stock is overvalued, but so what. Overvaluation alonein my opinion is almost never a good reason to short something. Yea, I definitely brought it on myself. I dont care to look back on the posts, but this was/is a pure valuation short/hedge. I added a bit more today around $800. I've got a stop at $1050 and will cost myself about 250 bps if hit. I actually did a reasonably amount of work on this some years back when the stock was trading around $175. Figured upside on a sale was $4.5B or so. Was long for a little bit. Hard to imagine Truly is a $6B brand, but who knows in todays market. I dont think this is a "great" company. But its definitely not a bad one. In relation to one of your other posts on shorting, Chanos often mentions the 3 Fs. Frauds, failures, and fads. Ive found the first two are reliable, but fads are highly subjective. One of my best longs in recent years was Sodastream, a 7x trade(left a bunch of upside on the table selling too soon) even though many thought it was an obvious fad. Fads are fads until theyre not. Will probably be the case here. Just another case of "dont short on valuation alone". An acquaintance sent me an email today on this. Made a rather funny remark about how given the market, you'd think the only thing people did during lockdown was eat Wingstop and drink Sam Adams...

Yup. Also had a series of(yes, its me, but it wasn't at all political) investment posts vanish the other morning as did I see several other posters posts disappear. I think it was Tuesday between 1am-3am EST...quite weird.

Cool, thanks for the explanation. Like you, I buy small, often. I forget who, it may have even been Cramer or one of the CNBC talking heads who said rule of thumb should be wait 3 days from earnings to make a move, but I personally fluctuate between "the fundamentals" mattering, in which case you're being counter productive getting too crazy about entry/exits, and the "trading game" in which case its very important. Of late, the later has been a popular theme with market participants, and I've found myself being influenced a tad by the mentality, at least in terms of my accumulation approach in some instances. Not sure whether thats good, bad, or ultimately meaningless.

Are you just being sarcastic? Rarely does the fundamental investment case go from investable to not a great idea in 24 hours or with a few buck s/t move. Or are you just looking for a quick flip here? Bought a small bit this morning, not super exciting, but basically at mid March levels now.

Got filled end of day on a GTC order for some PCYO at 8.7

NZ did very well. One overarching theme is that islands ( NZ, Australia ( technically a continent but still surrounded by water), Iceland, Japan , South Korea ( norther border is impenetrable) can do better because they have easier ways to control access. The exception are the turds from the UK of course. I don't think most of the countries that are having trouble are having trouble because infected people are coming over the borders... I cant think of any other way a virus that started in China goes global...can you?

Added a few more BRK. If the current tech reversal trend continues(big week with GOOG and FB ER coming up; two of the most susceptible techies), I think this is a good place to be. Or maybe its just a 1-2 days market head fake to screw with people who like value stocks....probably. EDIT: just grabbed some INTC a bit below $50 as well.

Maybe people expect their sanitizer sales will sky rocket... https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/24/coronavirus-kegs-are-going-bad-boston-beer-has-a-solution.html I think SAM May benefit from the demise of some craft brewers. As far as I can tell, booze sales have been pretty good so far during the pandemic. I certainly did my share buying beer, wine and cider. The valuation is egregious, but that’s true for a lot of stocks including those with much crappier fundamentals than SAM. I wish I had gone long this one at ~$460. Their sales have been gangbusters. They have category killers in craft beer, ciders and now hard Selters. Aaaand maybe, hoping to hit $12 in EPS for CY20. Jim Koch and insiders continue to dump their shares all over. Cant really think of too many better recession hedge stocks than this. Competition is coming from all over with the new seltzer releases....just like it did with soda and cider.

Im more interested in who is Stone Cold, The Rock, Undertaker, and Mankind?

GRBK

Yea Marten is much more focused and if anything, a potential tuck in acquisition for an ODFL type. They've spent years shifting away from long haul and just in general, have the whole owner operator thing going on, which explains the consistency of their results over the years and aligns interests in a business that can definitely be challenging.

Value stocks absolutely work WITH PROPER CAPITAL ALLOCATION! It is virtually impossible for a solid company trading at 5x or whatever to underperform over the long haul if they are repurchasing shares, paying dividends, and retiring(or using wisely) debt. This said, theres a difference between a traditional value stock and a shitty company with bad management that is optimally "cheap"(cough GM).

Curious what interests you about MRTN? TL trucking is a pretty rough and tumble industry. MRTN just posted outstanding results, and after following(like with a lot of names) for some time decided to use some cash to put it in the portfolio. They are incredibly well managed, have an impenetrable balance sheet, have refined the business to be primarily temperature controlled transport rather than competing for everything under the sun. As such they've been able to hold reasonable leverage on pricing and grow revenues much more consistently than the "peers". Theyre basically a trucking company that doesnt really have the problems most trucking companies have, and this has historically been the case.

Started some MRTN, and bought a few more BRK as I had cash freed up from other sales.

Trimmed some DD, FIZZ, CRSP. Sold out of ANGI(Cheers to a certain board member on that one, thanks!) Added to shorts in PINE, OPK, AMRN

LOL, that women “dancing” in front of the police car. FWIW, if I were to guess the demographic that is mit likely to skirt mask rules based on my limited observations, it would be a young black male in his twenties. I dont even think its politics or race. Young people will do what they want, and be rebellious. Immature middle aged(30-45 years old) will do what they want. This is a YUGE portion of the population. My greater point is that trying to place politics around much of this, is a sure fire way to....not get anywhere remotely useful in terms of solving the root of the problem. Is Cuomo responsible for the block parties in Astoria? Of course he isn't. He is somewhat respibsle for Cuomo chips though. If anyone read the article..."when asked for comment, an official Cuomo spokesperson commented that: Cuomo senior adviser Rich Azzopardi said Friday that buying $1 chips complies with the food-requirement rule. “It’s consistent with the guidance — but you have to be seated,” Azzopardi said. Sooo. WTF is the point of even having the "no bars" policy then? Is it really just politics? So you can say "you did something"??? EDIT: Disney now updates rules after guests take advantage of "eating and drinking" while walking to skirt mask rules....Fucking Trump Teens and even some percentage of adults are always likely to make some reckless choices. No doubt. Some percent of teens are likely to take drugs, even if both parents are well meaning and do all the right things. But now imagine, if the parents say, drugs are no big deal, they might be fun to use once in a while, etc. I would think those teens are much more likely to take drugs. Same applies here. Trump has influence on a big enough segment of the population that his example would be emulated. Even if say 5% or 10% of population end up wearing masks because of him it would be helpful. So no, I disagree with your backhanded support to Trump that none of that would make any impact. Vinod Thats totally fine. Theres been more than enough presented, to get to where one needs, without it being a support/not support Trump issue. You have people from different age groups, demographics, income levels, and political affiliations, skirting social distancing rules and disregarding masks. Some love Trump, some hate him, most probably dont care either way. You have cases from 1918 where you had the same type of "anti mask" behavior, but if Anderson Cooper tells you a potato is a T Rex, you are more than free to blame Trump for bringing back the dinosaurs....

LOL, that women “dancing” in front of the police car. FWIW, if I were to guess the demographic that is mit likely to skirt mask rules based on my limited observations, it would be a young black male in his twenties. I dont even think its politics or race. Young people will do what they want, and be rebellious. Immature middle aged(30-45 years old) will do what they want. This is a YUGE portion of the population. My greater point is that trying to place politics around much of this, is a sure fire way to....not get anywhere remotely useful in terms of solving the root of the problem. Is Cuomo responsible for the block parties in Astoria? Of course he isn't. He is somewhat respibsle for Cuomo chips though. If anyone read the article..."when asked for comment, an official Cuomo spokesperson commented that: Cuomo senior adviser Rich Azzopardi said Friday that buying $1 chips complies with the food-requirement rule. “It’s consistent with the guidance — but you have to be seated,” Azzopardi said. Sooo. WTF is the point of even having the "no bars" policy then? Is it really just politics? So you can say "you did something"??? EDIT: Disney now updates rules after guests take advantage of "eating and drinking" while walking to skirt mask rules....Fucking Trump

Ardent Trump supporter Dwight Howard on marks..."pointless"....selfish fucking Republican!

More selfish, science denying Trump supporters https://www.yahoo.com/news/florida-sheriffs-office-releases-footage-203833828.html

The US has changed so much over the past two decades its surreal. You can still be whatever you want and find places to live amongst people who share similar values to you. You have more freedoms than pretty much anywhere else, which is great. But there are significant structural issues; laziness, selfishness, materialism, lack of respect for authority or value based systems, etc that will prevent future generations from becoming better off than the past, which has always been a key cog in the growth machine. Tell me, how many urban/semi suburban kids are currently in position to learn the skills required(STEM subjects) to land a tech job? Answer: not many. Well, in the not too distant future those will be the high majority of high paying careers, as everything else continues to get squeezed. Even stuff as simple as becoming a: cop, community bank manager, run a local retail shop.....going, going, gone.... definitely a country on the decline.

https://abc7ny.com/queens-gathering-no-face-masks-social-distancing-crowds/6323410/ Yea though, blame the government! #ostrichstyle! This in NYC nonetheless, with probably 85% of this district voting blue. Its amazing to me that many continue to think that in the US, the best results will be produced because of government policy(at any level). The best course of action for everyone, is being personally alert and aware, and making decisions that are in YOUR best interest. Risk/reward doesnt just apply to the markets.