ValueMaven

I bought some CACI down -20% in 5 days. This whole DOGE thing is a massive overreaction. Plus, I think over the next several years the govt will use CACI services MORE not less. They just had their annual investor day as well. I'm guessing at these levels they've ramped up repurchases.

FCNCA

Fairfax has been selling off - yet most of the manager reinsurance companies have bounced back a bit over the last day or two. Any reason why?

What I dont like about this article is the miscommunication ... specifically this: The railroad hired industry veteran Ed Harris, a proponent of precision scheduling, an operating model that is prized by investors and that executives at BNSF have resisted. Harris has told people that Abel recruited him as a consultant for BNSF, according to people familiar with the matter. A BNSF spokesman said Chief Executive Kathryn Farmer has known Harris for years and the company has a history of seeking outside perspectives to ensure it is delivering the best service possible. The spokesman disputed that Abel initiated the hiring of Harris. Abel didn’t respond to a request for comment; Harris declined to comment.

I think we'd all agree that Constellation has the gold-stand for compensation among its managers. No restricted stock units, options etc, and yearly 75% of a operating managers bonus has to go into buying CSU shares which they cant sell for 5+ years. Shares outstanding has remained FLAT for 15+ years. Berkshire is another GOLD STANDARD here. Someone mentioned Watsco as having very shareholder aligned comp structure (have to be retired before you can sell etc). What other companies are worth studying in this regard?

People who say that Berkshire would acquire Markel for Gayner's insurance knowledge really dont know Berkshire at all! Berkshire has the deepest senior talent in the P&C industry period. This was only enhanced by the addition of Joe Brandon of Alleghany less than 12 months ago! What would be really cool is if Weston Hicks joined the company, or even the board!

Think about how weak the Russian military is! This has truly been an amazing insight for NATO/China and even Iran! Poorly trained, weak chain of command and very poor operational expertise. This has been one of the best investments for the USA. Not a single American solider has died - yet the Russian Army has been weakened/killed by at least 300-400,000. Regan would never have believed it! I wonder why other anti-Russian areas like Georgia, Chechnya fighters, and even some of the former Soviet countries have yet to rally together publicly agaisnt this and even start to attack Russia directly!

No. With National Indemnity (think very large complex P&C policies), GEICO (US Auto), Berkshire Hathaway Specialty Insurance (former AIG team - P&C, much smaller and faster book of biz), Alleghany (P&C and reinsurance - more internationally focused) we have it all mostly covered. Which is why floating Chubb as an M&A target wont happen either.

we dont need more P&C subs ... we recently bought alleghany

Starter position in ASML. It's down a lot and very cyclical. Will add more in the $600s.

Great post @Viking - thank you. Personally, I think Prem & Team will be buying back a lot of stock similar to Teledyne 2.0 ... Leon Cooperman once wrote an article on Teledyne and I believe was on the board of directors. There was once a negative piece written on Teledyne in Barrons and Cooperman wrote a wonder reply to the editors which was published. Let me see if I can find it.

Trump was just shot at a rally in PA - he lived. His polls will spike now. I'm guessing FnF preferreds will move higher in the coming days.

This is actually a really stupid and illquid piece of paper. I'd much rather - and do own - the GS fix-to-floating 7.5% Capital Trust's issued a few months ago. $1,000 par, so you dont get idiot ETF holdings owning it, it's now trading at $103 - but you could have easily bought these at par a few months ago. $2.25B issue size and is very liquid.

Berkshire and Constellation

I'm starting to view my position in FFH as a 'bond w/upside' ... I realize this is a very simplistic view - but it helps me have conviction in all of the different drivers of value + the risk/reward left in the name. FFH is my 3rd largest holding!

Yes. Valuation driven.

45% in T-Bills 16% in BRK 12% in Constellation (Software) 8% in a GS 7% $1,000 Preferred 6% in Fairfax 6% in Company Stock 3% in TPL 2% in FNMAN $50 Preferred 1.2% in WST 1.1% in FICO 1% in TDG 1% in AER 1% in COST It's an odd portfolio but dont I dont trade a lot and have held on to some things for many years. Sub positions (sub 3%) force me to follow them and I'll buy more if the share price falls by -30%. No MAG-7

Shocked this board has been dead - despite Trump clearly pulling ahead vs. Biden. Shows you a decade plus of investor fatigue

amazing work @Viking - thank you!! interesting that the share price hasnt moved much over the last few months. Hoping these buybacks continue.

how would Greenberg fit into Berkshire culture? You have Ajit, Joe Brandon, Kara Raiguel, Todd, plus the AIG guys. Do we really need him?

Would you rather Chubb at 12x EPS and 1.7x BV, or FFH at 7x EPS and 1.0x BV ?

I've suggested Ingersoll Rand a few times in the past

You can get some really attractive preferreds right now. These are NOT risk-free, but given how safe some of these banks are, and the yield pick-up relative to Bills, they seem interesting. One that has caught my eye is the M&T Series J $25 par preferreds with a YTM of 7.5%. This is a $750M issuance, which is about 1M old in the market and very liquid. They have a 5Yr redemption cause, and M&T Bank is one of the safeties regional banks with a very low efficiency ratio. You can read more about the preferreds here: https://ir.mtb.com/node/38786/html ... the one negative here is that the $25 par market is retail driven and could suffer from irrational selling, while $1000 par market is all OTC. Interest is paid quarterly, and you could see people pay up for these given that M&T trades at 1.5x BV and is viewed as a very high quality bank.

Stupid post. They've also helped Berkshire with the Apple position which was $100B profit. Plus, Todd is running GEICO now, and Ted is doing a lot of M&A type of deals. Honestly these two are great assets for Berkshire. They dont need to beat the S&P.

Ctrl-F - search for Fairfax: https://business.columbia.edu/sites/default/files-efs/imce-uploads/Graham Doddsville Spring 2024 Issue FINAL.pdf Someone from MuddyWaters talks a bit more about their short-case.