ValueMaven

Berkshire and Constellation

I'm starting to view my position in FFH as a 'bond w/upside' ... I realize this is a very simplistic view - but it helps me have conviction in all of the different drivers of value + the risk/reward left in the name. FFH is my 3rd largest holding!

Yes. Valuation driven.

45% in T-Bills 16% in BRK 12% in Constellation (Software) 8% in a GS 7% $1,000 Preferred 6% in Fairfax 6% in Company Stock 3% in TPL 2% in FNMAN $50 Preferred 1.2% in WST 1.1% in FICO 1% in TDG 1% in AER 1% in COST It's an odd portfolio but dont I dont trade a lot and have held on to some things for many years. Sub positions (sub 3%) force me to follow them and I'll buy more if the share price falls by -30%. No MAG-7

Shocked this board has been dead - despite Trump clearly pulling ahead vs. Biden. Shows you a decade plus of investor fatigue

amazing work @Viking - thank you!! interesting that the share price hasnt moved much over the last few months. Hoping these buybacks continue.

how would Greenberg fit into Berkshire culture? You have Ajit, Joe Brandon, Kara Raiguel, Todd, plus the AIG guys. Do we really need him?

Would you rather Chubb at 12x EPS and 1.7x BV, or FFH at 7x EPS and 1.0x BV ?

I've suggested Ingersoll Rand a few times in the past

You can get some really attractive preferreds right now. These are NOT risk-free, but given how safe some of these banks are, and the yield pick-up relative to Bills, they seem interesting. One that has caught my eye is the M&T Series J $25 par preferreds with a YTM of 7.5%. This is a $750M issuance, which is about 1M old in the market and very liquid. They have a 5Yr redemption cause, and M&T Bank is one of the safeties regional banks with a very low efficiency ratio. You can read more about the preferreds here: https://ir.mtb.com/node/38786/html ... the one negative here is that the $25 par market is retail driven and could suffer from irrational selling, while $1000 par market is all OTC. Interest is paid quarterly, and you could see people pay up for these given that M&T trades at 1.5x BV and is viewed as a very high quality bank.

Stupid post. They've also helped Berkshire with the Apple position which was $100B profit. Plus, Todd is running GEICO now, and Ted is doing a lot of M&A type of deals. Honestly these two are great assets for Berkshire. They dont need to beat the S&P.

Ctrl-F - search for Fairfax: https://business.columbia.edu/sites/default/files-efs/imce-uploads/Graham Doddsville Spring 2024 Issue FINAL.pdf Someone from MuddyWaters talks a bit more about their short-case.

Chubb - wow .,..

https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/apple-is-buffetts-best-investment-its-also-now-one-of-his-riskiest-fb11f9a2?mod=hp_lead_pos3 This time, Buffett asked Combs to identify a stock in the S&P 500 that met three criteria. The first: a reasonably cheap price/earnings multiple of no more than 15, based on the next 12 months’ projected earnings. The stock also had to be one the managers were at least 90% sure would enjoy higher earnings over the next five years. And they had to be at least 50% confident that the company’s earnings would grow by at least 7% annually for five years or longer. Combs’s research pointed to Apple, the same stock Weschler had already purchased.

The consolidated undiscounted combined ratio of the property and casualty insurance and reinsurance operations was 93.6%

https://www.fairfax.ca/press-releases/fairfax-financial-holdings-limited-financial-results-for-the-first-quarter-2024-05-02/

Have been buying the $1,000 GS Preferred's with a coupon of 7.5% !! Currently trading at $101 - so the YTM is 7.3% or so. Institutional Preferred' so do you dont have idiot ETFs/PFF swinging the prices around. I view this as 'Cash Plus/Very Low Risk'

What's going on with ODFL? Down again ...

Also bought MSCI today ... was down -15% at one point. Huge switching costs and I like their approach to capital allocation. Rare to get a quality compounder like this on sale.

Meeting slides are up: https://www.fairfax.ca/wp-content/uploads/Fairfax-AGM-2024.pdf

anyone have a link or PDF of the AGM slides please?

helpful @Hoodlum thank you

Very odd - FRFHF opened down nearly -4% today in the US Market. Was able to add more in size around the ~$1055 level USD. Just very odd opening action in the first 10-15mins of trading. Has since normalized a bit.

@Parsad thank you for all of the updates! You rock

MuddyWater's posted a video on Twitter basically asking for the public's help in finding dirt on FFH. I guess he didnt do enough homework himself.