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Santayana

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Everything posted by Santayana

  1. Good point. Though honestly you'd have to pay me more to do that kind of work than engineering work!
  2. I think it's fair to question whether they're asking for to much, but I really wouldn't call them unskilled labor. You don't want your car assembled by guys that jumped in the back of your truck in front of Home Depot.
  3. A much better comparison would be stocks with dividends reinvested and bonds with the semi-annual interest reinvested.
  4. One problem with trying to compare the two is the idea of just buying and holding from some arbitrary starting point without ever adding new capital.
  5. I'm not necessarily saying that's the sensible comparison to make. But it is what Dinar and TwoCitiesCapital were talking about.
  6. Are you sure you looked at the performance of the 30 year over that entire time?
  7. In my house we go through a couple dozen per week, so those 6 dozen wouldn't even last a month!
  8. I completely understand @Munger_Disciple's points about the risks, but I feel like the biggest risks to Fairfax at this are actually industry risks, and that Fairfax is better positioned than most right now.
  9. I feel certain that he thinks IV is far higher than 25% above BV, which he says he thinks is understated.
  10. Took a flier on some TSLA puts. November 275.
  11. And/or close out the TRS position.
  12. SPY puts 2 years out. Don't think it will take much to pop VIX back above 20 even if just for a minute.
  13. Whoever the counterparty is, I can't imagine they're not hedged.
  14. Unfortunately what "should be" isn't the reality of many people. Where I live, the cheapest single family home currently on market is $419,000 for a 780 sq/ft 2BR/1BA. The median household income is $54,000.
  15. I've got a 3% mortgage. Taxes and insurance make up about a 1/3 of my total payment, and those are definitely going up faster than my income.
  16. Looks like Mr. Market is back to it's old ways of not reacting to earnings the next day. I expect there will be a nice little pop next week. I'm tempted to add even though I'm already quite overweight.
  17. As easy as it is to point to the equity hedges as a cause of underperformance, I have to wonder if they would have been as comfortable with the aggressive acquisitions if those hedges hadn't been in place.
  18. Wow, when Prem said "material impact" he wasn't kidding. Will be interesting to see how other insurers are impacted.
  19. Last month my daughter had a 10% rent increase on her apartment in Seattle. So there's at least one place. I just looked at the breakdown of the numbers more closely, and the one that really stands out to me is the claim of a ~10% decrease in health insurance cost. Now that's the one where I want to know what universe these clowns live in.
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