Viking

The cracks are starting to appear around the globe... US housing was the core issue in 2008. What will be the financial cause of the 2020 recession? Yes, the virus is the core issue. Perhaps a decade of negative interest rates has built up instabilities (like global banks reaching for yield) that will make the coming global recession much worse. BOJ warns of potential financial system risks triggered by pandemic - https://finance.yahoo.com/news/boj-warns-potential-financial-system-121504660.html TOKYO (Reuters) - The coronavirus pandemic, if prolonged, could trigger a negative feedback loop in which a worsening economy threatens to destabilise Japan's financial system, the Bank of Japan warned on Tuesday. Japanese financial institutions have increased lending to middle-risk borrowers, or companies with higher credit risk, in search of higher yields amid years of ultra-low interest rates, the BOJ said in a semi-annual report on the financial system. They have also increased high-risk overseas lending, such as those to energy firms hit by plunging oil prices, making their balance sheets vulnerable to global market volatility, it said. Such exposure to various risks is among factors the BOJ must take into account in scrutinising Japan's banking sector, particularly because some of the loans could turn sour as the pandemic hurts the economy, the report said. "Japan's financial system is under strong stress but remains sound as a whole, with financial institutions providing necessary funds to support economic activity," the BOJ said. "If the economy suffers a prolonged and deep slump, however, that could trigger a full-fledged, banking-sector correction," it said.

On the other hand, the natural gas forward curve has been rising, with the January 2021 contract up around 25% in the last 45 days. I assume part of the reason for that is the assumed decline in associated/byproduct gas going forward. Also, for US producers, what percentage of oil production is hedged at much higher prices than the June or July contracts? More broadly, if you've already incurred the expense of drilling and completing a shale well, what is the actual cost to lift and transport it for sale? I assume that's quite low. So, wouldn't US production likely decline with the aging curve of recent shale wells, rather than simply fall off a cliff? It makes sense to me that once storage capacity is reached production WILL come down. Prices will keep falling until this happens. Volume cuts will be voluntarily or forced via bankruptcy.

It looks like we are starting to see some second order effects play out from the economic devastation brought on by the virus. Oil has seen an unprecedented massive demand shock that is ongoing. Producers have not cut back nearly enough. Excess storage is now full. So what is the solution? Lower prices. The problem is cutting production results in lower employment and no national government wants this so everyone keeps producing. What we are seeing is what happens to an oligopoly when there is no cooperation. Interesting commodity indexes are now trading at new historic lows. And the 10 year US Treasury is trading lower (near its all time low). Disinflation is a reality. And that train is just getting started. We are in unprecedented times... i wonder what will be the next shoe to fall? Low commodity prices, a rising US$ and virus ravaged economies can’t be good for emerging markets (Brazil, Turkey, Iran, Iraq, Venezuela, India etc).

I think what you are really asking is this: is it important. And if so how important? The US decided it was important to go to the moon. With leadership, planning, experts, resources, money and effort they made it happen. Yes, there were set backs; learn, iterate and keep going. The virus is killing the global economy (not just the US). And it is costing lives. I think one can make the case that this is the biggest economic/health issue to hit the globe since the great depression. So i think we can all agree that dealing with the ‘virus’ is massively important. So it then follows that governments would do everything in their power to deal with it. One would expect the government to mobilize all necessary resources no different than when it fought WW1, WW2 or when it decided to go to the moon. And the leadership HAS to come at the national level. It also needs massive international coordination. Imaging fighting WW1 or WW2 without international coordination? Or how about if the US presidents at the time said ‘we are going to fight a world war and the states individually can manage the the war effort as they chose as per the loose guidelines as set forth by the Federal government.’ And then the President then said that all people who do not support the war should let their governors know and actively demonstrate in their state. And the states were also short on ammunition; production of which was controlled by the government who said when they asked for more ‘you have enough...’ Some countries have decided that dealing with the virus is of the utmost importance: Taiwan and South Korea. It has taken great political leadership, a national approach, has required individuals to give up some personal freedoms. Most importantly it required a vision, planning, trust in science, excellent communication, resource mobilization (people and medical), cooperation, strong execution. Is it important? If so, how important?

Trump is getting killed on how he has managed the virus and it is getting worse. So what does he do? He manufactures a new ‘issue’ that the news media will shift their focus to. The messier the better. Smart, smart man! However, this is not good for the US. Among other things, immigration brings in needed skills. It also provides a nice boost to GDP as all those immigrants provide a nice economic boost (need to eat and sleep somewhere).

Since this thread has morphed to emerging economies, currencies and commodities, it's interesting to note that the Mexican government has had a policy to hedge its export production at 49 WTI this year, apparently 100% hedged and called the Hacienda hedge (versus 55 last year). In Canada, the last quote on WCS is 4.23 (maybe lower tomorrow) which is about 50$ lower than exactly a year ago. Canadian operators have various hedges in place and it may not be as efficient as the Hacienda hedge and I will let you guess who the counter-parties are (hint: they are fully back-stopped by the Fed). ---) Back the low interest rates are great topic So help me out here... the investment banks (like Goldman) do the hedging for Mexico but who do they offload the risk to? Mexico has made as much as $6 billion in the past with this hedge; likely more this time round. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2017-04-04/uncovering-the-secret-history-of-wall-street-s-largest-oil-trade

We have never had a situation where NFL, MLB, NBA, NHL, PGA, NCAA, World Soccer etc were all shuttered at the same time for an indefinite period of time: minimum 6 months and more likely 12 months or longer. This is just one of many industries facing the exact same reality. My basic point is all of these closures have to add up to some meaningful economic contraction that will likely last a year (until a vaccine is ready). Financial markets are off to the races higher and likely pricing in a V shape recovery. We will see :-)

Here is an update on one industry that is in deep shit. Lots more just like them. But don’t worry, the Fed is printing money and governments are spending like never before... so it doesn’t matter :-) The Coronavirus Doesn’t Care When Sports Come Back: The prolonged shutdown of the sports world is taking a huge financial toll. And comeback plans all have a pesky hurdle — public health. - https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/19/sports/coronavirus-sports-economy.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage A Major League Baseball season to be played entirely in the Arizona desert without fans, and with teams isolating themselves from the outside world. The N.B.A. taking over a hotel on the Las Vegas Strip so its stars can dine and dunk in their own bubble — but only after the league gets access to instant coronavirus tests. Mixed-martial-arts fights live on TV from a private island … somewhere. More than a month into the coronavirus shutdown, the American sports industrial complex is getting creative, or perhaps desperate, searching for a moonshot that might bring professional athletics back to a nation largely cooped up at home and suffering from collective cabin fever. Fans are clamoring for something, anything, to distract from the pandemic and restore sports to the rhythm of American life; even Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the presidential adviser on infectious diseases, recently mused about seeing the Washington Nationals defend their World Series title. Meanwhile, owners, executives and athletes — and all the related businesses and workers who depend on them — are increasingly worried about the economic damage from this prolonged, inescapable off-season. But the hurdles to any return are numerous, and they start with securing access to tests for the virus and persuading players and officials to agree to strict confinement, among other conditions. Over the past two decades, the business of sports in the United States has ballooned into a chunk of the economy that generates well over $71 billion annually and employs tens of thousands of people, from superstar athletes to hot dog vendors. But all of that has ground to an abrupt halt. The financial losses climb every day, as games go unplayed and are absent from television, and entire seasons could be canceled.

Stocks are great replacement for low-yield bonds, as long as they don't go down :-X Packer, i agree theoretically with what you are saying. I think one of the drivers of the increase in stock prices the past few weeks is money starting to shift from bonds to equities. Institutions holding bonds are saying why would i hold a bond paying less than 1% interest? Blackrock talked about this shift happening on its quarterly conference call. The problem with this strategy is stocks are not bond substitutes (even utility type stocks). If we get a severe recession/deflation lots of pension funds/insurance companies could be in deep shit. Yes, this is low probability. I wonder if asset managers will be communicating this risk to their members? Negative bond yields really does corrupt the investment decision making process.

Packer, i agree theoretically with what you are saying. I think one of the drivers of the increase in stock prices the past few weeks is money starting to shift from bonds to equities. Institutions holding bonds are saying why would i hold a bond paying less than 1% interest? Blackrock talked about this shift happening on its quarterly conference call. The problem with this strategy is stocks are not bond substitutes (even utility type stocks). If we get a severe recession/deflation lots of pension funds/insurance companies could be in deep shit. Yes, this is low probability. I wonder if asset managers will be communicating this risk to their members?

Most people appear to be more concerned about inflation than deflation. In the next year or two is deflation not much more likely? The globe has been shifting for the last 2 decades from high inflation to very low inflation. The virus is going to accelerate deflationary trends: - oil prices have cratered and will be low for a long time; many companies will go bankrupt - unemployment will be at levels last seen in the great depression - industries involved with travel and tourism will be severely impaired for the next year perhaps two: airlines, hotels, car rental, vacation shops, conventions - public sporting and entertainment events will be severely impacted for the next year: all professional and amateur - eat-in restaurant industry will be impaired (drive through take out will thrive) - brick and mortar retail will be impaired; the trend of the past few years (shift to online) will accelerate - wild card: do we get a shift to in-country production. Essential medical goods will be immediate. Travel restrictions will make international business more difficult moving forward. - look at the trends in the global economy the past 30 years: Japan has been a hot mess for 30 years; the Eurozone never dealt with the 2008 crisis (its banks are not in great shape) and are ill prepared for the economic carnage currently happening; emerging markets are not well equipped to deal with the virus as they do not have the ability to stimulate the same way more developed economies can; China’s economy is at risk if de-globalization takes hold - we already have negative interest rates in Japan and Europe. Makes sense US is next as the recession takes hold in the coming quarters. - higher taxes are coming in the next year. All this government spending will need to be paid for. - US election in November: as we get closer it will be a blood bath between Trump, Republicans and Democrats - all at a time when the US will likely be dealing with a second wave of the virus and needing cooperation among politicians - which just increases the odds of a poor outcome - wild card is future path of virus is unknown and is skewed to the downside at least until a vaccine is available in another year or two - more broadly, technology has been causing massive shifts in the economy. Perhaps this change will accelerate in the coming years. I am sure i am missing a bunch of things. Bottom line, it looks to me like deflation is likely moving forward. Falling prices. Demand is falling. We have too much supply. I am pretty sure markets today are rising because of all the central bank spending. I am not convinced that it will be enough this time. It looks to me like the economic damage is going to be large.

Great post! Well explained. Lots to think about :-) Where 10 year Treasury bond yields go in the US in the next year will be important. Will they follow Japan and Germany into negative territory?

Should the President replace Fauci/Birx? At the end of the day the president owns the national response. If Fauci/Birx are providing bad advice then they should be replaced. If you watch 5 or more of Trump’s daily updates you will quickly realize who the problem is. Is that what a world class national response to a global pandemic looks like? ARE they providing bad advice? The reason i suggested you watch the source material is so you can draw your own conclusion. If a person wants to get informed i find there is no better way :-)

I feel like you are assuming everyone will go to a dallas cowboys game on april 27th. Removing the stay at home order does not mean people will just go back to their old behaviors and R0 will go back to what it was. A very realistic way these states will open is, Businesses will open but have a limit on the number of customers at a time. Everyone will wear a mask. Still no large gatherings but at least most of the economy will be allowed to restart. The R0 will be much much lower than it was in New York 5 weeks ago. Don't have a number, but it's just common sense. how do i know that's a realistic path? Because Europe is already doing it. I live in Poland, and i go for groceries wearing a mask (mandatory here), and keep my distance from people. I disinfect what I can when I get home. I consider the probability of me getting infected under my current behavior as quite low. the vast majority of the other people I see are practicing the same precautions and I anticipate the R0 rate in Poland to collapse in the coming weeks. America just hasn't gotten the mask idea, but they will. April 27 is still 9 days away. things move quickly these days. Well I'm speculating to some degree as even the medical professionals don't know the course of the pathogen. My point is everything seems to be priced for almost perfection in the equity markets. The probability is higher than the market is pricing in for a 2nd wave. It isn't pricing anything in for a more virulent mutation. Look at the 1918 pathogen. The 2nd wave was more deadly than the first. I hope I am wrong and the cases stay low and don't increase. I just don't see it happening unless a therapeutic comes out in the fall that is 95% effective. A vaccine is at least 18 months away. We will be better prepared for a second wave. Even a slightly mutated virus won't have a high enough infection rate if people practice social distancing and masks. If it mutates to be as deadly as ebola then we should all be selling stocks and buying canned goods and shotguns. But if it mutates slightly, we have a few months to change behaviors. The behavior of the average American, which we all agree has been among the slowest to adopt, has already changed so much and it only been what? 2 months. We can do a lot in the 3-4 months before a 2nd wave hits. I agree the equity markets are a bit frothy here, but this thread is about the trajectory of the virus. In the beginning, people were underestimating the virus and now people are underestimating the game-changer that is most people wearing masks and just being aware of the virus (keeping a distance, washing hands, surfaces). I see it every day. The chances of someone being infected are very small, and that's why the spread is so much lower in Asia and now starting to show in Europe. We are all trying to understand what the economy will look like in the coming months and quarters. It looks to me like April and first 2 weeks of May will be a write off. After that do we get a 60% economy for a month? And then 80% the second month and afterwards until a vaccine is developed in 12-18 months? Is the S&P 500 fairly valued today at 2,875 if we have a severe recession the next three months followed by the economy returns to 80% capacity afterwards until a vaccine is developed (mid to late 2021)?

Should the President replace Fauci/Birx? At the end of the day the president owns the national response. If Fauci/Birx are providing bad advice then they should be replaced. If you watch 5 or more of Trump’s daily updates you will quickly realize who the problem is. Is that what a world class national response to a global pandemic looks like?

We have discussed this on other BRK threads. Berkshire is being run today for current long term shareholders. Investors who have owned Berkshire for many decades. These investors, like Buffett, have enough; they are worth many millions (10’s an 100’s). Return of capital (over time) is far more important than return on capital. Berkshire will be run very conservatively. It is starting to look and sound like a kind of Trust (for the old, big holders of shares). Beating the S&P 500 is no longer important. If you want safety and a better than bond return then you buy Berkshire.

I agree that lock down is terrible. Economic costs are massive. And there are severe health costs. What this means is you need to get your health response to the virus right. Testing. Contact tracing. Quarantine. The Federal government is failing on the health response to the virus; no leadership or coordination etc. The result of this incompetence is the US economy is likely screwed until a vaccine is developed.

Are people seriously suggesting that the lock down that happened in most advanced countries in the world to deal with the virus was a mistake because millions of people did not die (i.e. the projections were wrong)? Talk about revisionist history. Virus comes to US. No testing. It spreads and community transfer begins. Clusters form in Washington State and New York City. Very limited testing. Virus continues to spread. These 2 regions start seeding virus to all other states in US. Now limited testing. Virus numbers start to explode. ‘Experts’ explain that now that virus is seeded in all parts of the US it will double every 4-5 days. If nothing is done health care system will be overrun and death rate will skyrocket. By now the world has many examples of countries where the virus was allowed to cluster and spread with limited testing being done: Wuhan China, Iran and Northern Italy. The result was a health catastrophe. The only solution was to lock down the regions, and eventually the entire country. Health care systems were completely overwhelmed. Many people were dying because hospitals had no resources to care for them. If lock downs had not happened how many people would have died in Wuhan, Iran or Northern Italy? And the virus would have spread more quickly to the rest of the world. The outbreaks in Washington State and New York City provided frightening examples of what was coming to the US if nothing was done. Testing was still not available. So the US had one choice to avoid a health catastrophe. And that was to lock down the country. The fact that the US did not experience a health catastrophe (like other parts of the world) is due to the lock downs that were put in place. It has taken 4 weeks for the results of the lock downs to become apparent. To now suggest that lock downs were a waste of time is complete and utter BS. Re-read this thread and all the facts are there for those who care to look. When a country mismanages the virus it has one tool to get control back: lock down. ———————————— Here is what is important today: Has the US learned any lessons in the past 2 months? 1.) One big lesson is testing is the key to managing the virus until a vaccine is found. Massive numbers of tests are needed. They need to be prioritized. Results need to be provided within 24 hours. 2.) Contact tracing needs to be done for all people who test positive. An army of people will be needed for this. 3.) Quarantine: people who test positive need to be quarantined and supported as needed through this. Scott Gottleib says the earliest the US will be able to do the above in some capacity is the fall. The President has just stated that the federal government will not be providing leadership on solving the testing issue; it will be left up to the states. No leadership or coordination at the federal level. Not good. What this means is as the US opens back up it will be at high risk of more clusters forming which then re-seed the virus into many parts of the US. This means the risks are high that the US will be needing to do another lock down. If your health response to the virus is wrong you will kill your economy. If you get the health response right you can start to get your economy moving again.

Graham was very candid about his poor performance during the Depression. I recently re-read an article (https://www.capitalideasonline.com/wordpress/benjamin-graham-and-the-great-crash/) where Graham recounts his experiences following the Crash of 1929. The whole thing is worth reading, but in particular, I found one story related by Graham from the Winter of 1930 to be especially compelling: ———————————————- Nomad, thanks for posting the link... great read. Here is another great paragraph. In bear markets the psychological damage is more difficult to deal with than the actual financial loss. “I can sympathize with the desperation of my old friend (who committed suicide), and almost with his tragic end, because to some degree I went through comparable dismay and apprehension for more than three years. It is true that I wasn’t ruined and that at the low­est point I still had means which would have seemed quite large to me only ten years before. But wealth and poverty are relative terms-a poor man in New York would be a rich man in Calcutta, and practically everyone who has lost four-fifths of his wealth considers he has suffered a disaster no matter how much he has left. The chief burden on my mind was not so much the actual shrinkage of my fortune as the lengthy attri­tion, the repeated disappointments after the tide had seemed to turn, the ultimate uncertainty about whether the Depres­sion and the losses would ever come to an end. Add to this the realization that I was responsible for the fortunes of many rel­atives and friends, that they were as apprehensive and dis­traught as I myself, and one may understand better the feel­ing of defeat and near-despair that almost overmastered me towards the end.”

Using unemployment rate to define "worst recession", the worst recession since the great depression is 1980-1982. The S&P 500 lost 27.8%. Your "base rate" on this crisis should be -30 to -50. We already hit -35%, so we are in the range. It is probably 50/50 that we have already bottomed. Every bear market has its own unique characteristics. What makes this one so fascinating is how unique it is (pandemic versus more usual boom time excesses). As a result, we are flying a little more blind than usual and as a result the tails (on both sides) are wider than normal. We could get a vaccine early which would be a game changer. Or we could get wave 2 of the virus in Sept (mutated and this time killing young people). And there are many more possible outcomes on both ends. There is so much we do not know. All i am saying is investors should understand how much they do not know and invest accordingly so they meet their objectives and sleep well at night. May we live in interesting times :-)

Graham’s definition of investing starts with ‘safety of principal...’. Buffet’s first rule of investing is: don’t lose what have. Rule 2 is don’t forget the first rule. Bear markets are all about capital preservation.

Many smart people are saying the current recession will be the worst recession since the Great Depression. If true we are likely just at the end of the beginning in terms of economic and financial pain. The Great Depression wiped Graham out and provided the basis for the the books he wrote afterwards. If this recession delivers on expectations (worst since Great Depression) then my guess is most investors will get cleaned out in the coming years. The best example is oil stocks; as a group, they are hated today (as they have been wealth destroyers for many people for many years). Bear markets savage investors equity portfolios and take years to do so. Buffett was taught by Graham. He is old enough to understand what real wealth destruction truly looks like. Not saying anything WILL happen. But the odds of a terrible economic outcome happening are going up with each passing week (for those who are paying attention). Eyes wide open :-) From Wikipedia: Graham's Beginnings After graduating from Columbia University in 1914, Graham went to work on Wall Street, which enabled him to cultivate a sizable personal nest egg over the next 15 years. Sadly, Graham lost most of his money in the stock market crash of 1929 and the subsequent Great Depression. Those experiences taught Graham lessons about minimizing downside risk by investing in companies whose shares traded far below the companies' liquidation value. In simple terms, his goal was to buy a dollar's worth of assets for $0.50. To do this, he utilized market psychology, turning market fears to his advantage. These ideals inspired him to write "Security Analysis" (published in 1934), which chronicled his methods of analyzing securities.

Tim Duy’s Fed Watch: https://blogs.uoregon.edu/timduyfedwatch/2020/04/16/its-ugly-out-there/ - https://blogs.uoregon.edu/timduyfedwatch/2020/04/16/its-ugly-out-there/ ... Still, on the theme of pragmatism, don’t dismiss the importance of that first pop of activity. It marks a turning point, a place to begin rebuilding the economy. The level won’t be where we want it to be and we will need to maintain pressure for ongoing policy support to foster the economy, but the economy will be moving in the right direction. Don’t become too enamored with either the pessimists or the optimists; the reality will fall somewhere in-between. Bottom Line: Controlling Covid-19 requires drastically constricting economic activity; the proof that the plan is working is that the data collapses and we bend the infection curve. The former has definitely happened and it looks like the latter will as well – social distancing works. We still have a long way to go until we return to some semblance of normality, but expect people to begin working in that direction when the restrictions on activity ease. Most important now is to keep the pressure up on Congress to provide sustained support for the economy; that support should be open-ended, based on economic conditions not time or dollars.

And now we begin to see what the nationally coordinated plan is for the US for phase 2. After all this is a war (according to the President). The US is at the beginning of what is expected to be the worst recession since the Great Depression. This is a chance for Trump to show what he is made of and that he is up to the challenge. As testing outcry mounts, Trump cedes to states in announcing guidelines for slow reopening - https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/as-testing-outcry-mounts-trump-cedes-to-states-in-announcing-guidelines-for-slow-reopening/2020/04/16/202ec300-7ffa-11ea-8013-1b6da0e4a2b7_story.html Trump’s the-buck-stops-with-the-states posture is largely designed to shield himself from blame should there be new outbreaks after states reopen or for other problems, according to several current and former senior administration officials involved in the response who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations. Governors have said one of the most important factors in making those determinations is testing data, but Trump’s plan does not contain a national testing strategy. Senior administration officials said that although the federal government will try to facilitate access to tests, states and localities will be responsible for developing and administering their own testing programs.

I think that this is an extremely good point that has gotten lost over the past month or two. The goal is to avoid overwhelming the healthcare system, not to eliminate every potential death from the virus by remaining shut for a year. (Based on Canadian polling, it's pretty clear that Canadians in aggregate don't get it.) On the "how to reopen" list, it shocks me that they aren't bothering to require masks, since it seems to be a cheap and easy solution to reduce transmission (and deaths and medical costs). I wonder if there was some reasoning behind that, or if they were just writing down stuff on autopilot, and not really thinking. If they decided not to include it for cultural reasons, that puts the US at a competitive disadvantage relative to other countries that are more open-minded about such things. When you ‘mismanage’ the virus outbreak you have to resort to lock down. (And by mismanage i mean not being able to control the virus.) We all know that lock down exacts an enormous toll on the economy. While in lock downs governments have a small window of time to pull together experts and implement a very detailed national strategic plan to combat the virus. This involves switching from playing defense to playing offense. The playbook is pretty straight forward: massive focussed and prioritized testing, quick results (within 24 hours), massive group of people to contact trace. How effective governments are with this stage will determine how quickly they can unlock the economy. And also, more importantly, how long the economy will remain unlocked. If you have no detailed national plan for phase 2 (reopening of the economy) you are likely screwed. As you try an reopen the economy all that will happen is the virus will win again. It will start to silently spread. Clusters will form and governments will need to resort to lock down again. We will find in the coming months which governments are up to the challenge. This is NOT a debate about ‘health’ OR ‘economy’. This is a debate about leaders who are effective and leaders who are ineffective.