Viking

Packer, i agree theoretically with what you are saying. I think one of the drivers of the increase in stock prices the past few weeks is money starting to shift from bonds to equities. Institutions holding bonds are saying why would i hold a bond paying less than 1% interest? Blackrock talked about this shift happening on its quarterly conference call. The problem with this strategy is stocks are not bond substitutes (even utility type stocks). If we get a severe recession/deflation lots of pension funds/insurance companies could be in deep shit. Yes, this is low probability. I wonder if asset managers will be communicating this risk to their members?

Most people appear to be more concerned about inflation than deflation. In the next year or two is deflation not much more likely? The globe has been shifting for the last 2 decades from high inflation to very low inflation. The virus is going to accelerate deflationary trends: - oil prices have cratered and will be low for a long time; many companies will go bankrupt - unemployment will be at levels last seen in the great depression - industries involved with travel and tourism will be severely impaired for the next year perhaps two: airlines, hotels, car rental, vacation shops, conventions - public sporting and entertainment events will be severely impacted for the next year: all professional and amateur - eat-in restaurant industry will be impaired (drive through take out will thrive) - brick and mortar retail will be impaired; the trend of the past few years (shift to online) will accelerate - wild card: do we get a shift to in-country production. Essential medical goods will be immediate. Travel restrictions will make international business more difficult moving forward. - look at the trends in the global economy the past 30 years: Japan has been a hot mess for 30 years; the Eurozone never dealt with the 2008 crisis (its banks are not in great shape) and are ill prepared for the economic carnage currently happening; emerging markets are not well equipped to deal with the virus as they do not have the ability to stimulate the same way more developed economies can; China’s economy is at risk if de-globalization takes hold - we already have negative interest rates in Japan and Europe. Makes sense US is next as the recession takes hold in the coming quarters. - higher taxes are coming in the next year. All this government spending will need to be paid for. - US election in November: as we get closer it will be a blood bath between Trump, Republicans and Democrats - all at a time when the US will likely be dealing with a second wave of the virus and needing cooperation among politicians - which just increases the odds of a poor outcome - wild card is future path of virus is unknown and is skewed to the downside at least until a vaccine is available in another year or two - more broadly, technology has been causing massive shifts in the economy. Perhaps this change will accelerate in the coming years. I am sure i am missing a bunch of things. Bottom line, it looks to me like deflation is likely moving forward. Falling prices. Demand is falling. We have too much supply. I am pretty sure markets today are rising because of all the central bank spending. I am not convinced that it will be enough this time. It looks to me like the economic damage is going to be large.

Great post! Well explained. Lots to think about :-) Where 10 year Treasury bond yields go in the US in the next year will be important. Will they follow Japan and Germany into negative territory?

Should the President replace Fauci/Birx? At the end of the day the president owns the national response. If Fauci/Birx are providing bad advice then they should be replaced. If you watch 5 or more of Trump’s daily updates you will quickly realize who the problem is. Is that what a world class national response to a global pandemic looks like? ARE they providing bad advice? The reason i suggested you watch the source material is so you can draw your own conclusion. If a person wants to get informed i find there is no better way :-)

I feel like you are assuming everyone will go to a dallas cowboys game on april 27th. Removing the stay at home order does not mean people will just go back to their old behaviors and R0 will go back to what it was. A very realistic way these states will open is, Businesses will open but have a limit on the number of customers at a time. Everyone will wear a mask. Still no large gatherings but at least most of the economy will be allowed to restart. The R0 will be much much lower than it was in New York 5 weeks ago. Don't have a number, but it's just common sense. how do i know that's a realistic path? Because Europe is already doing it. I live in Poland, and i go for groceries wearing a mask (mandatory here), and keep my distance from people. I disinfect what I can when I get home. I consider the probability of me getting infected under my current behavior as quite low. the vast majority of the other people I see are practicing the same precautions and I anticipate the R0 rate in Poland to collapse in the coming weeks. America just hasn't gotten the mask idea, but they will. April 27 is still 9 days away. things move quickly these days. Well I'm speculating to some degree as even the medical professionals don't know the course of the pathogen. My point is everything seems to be priced for almost perfection in the equity markets. The probability is higher than the market is pricing in for a 2nd wave. It isn't pricing anything in for a more virulent mutation. Look at the 1918 pathogen. The 2nd wave was more deadly than the first. I hope I am wrong and the cases stay low and don't increase. I just don't see it happening unless a therapeutic comes out in the fall that is 95% effective. A vaccine is at least 18 months away. We will be better prepared for a second wave. Even a slightly mutated virus won't have a high enough infection rate if people practice social distancing and masks. If it mutates to be as deadly as ebola then we should all be selling stocks and buying canned goods and shotguns. But if it mutates slightly, we have a few months to change behaviors. The behavior of the average American, which we all agree has been among the slowest to adopt, has already changed so much and it only been what? 2 months. We can do a lot in the 3-4 months before a 2nd wave hits. I agree the equity markets are a bit frothy here, but this thread is about the trajectory of the virus. In the beginning, people were underestimating the virus and now people are underestimating the game-changer that is most people wearing masks and just being aware of the virus (keeping a distance, washing hands, surfaces). I see it every day. The chances of someone being infected are very small, and that's why the spread is so much lower in Asia and now starting to show in Europe. We are all trying to understand what the economy will look like in the coming months and quarters. It looks to me like April and first 2 weeks of May will be a write off. After that do we get a 60% economy for a month? And then 80% the second month and afterwards until a vaccine is developed in 12-18 months? Is the S&P 500 fairly valued today at 2,875 if we have a severe recession the next three months followed by the economy returns to 80% capacity afterwards until a vaccine is developed (mid to late 2021)?

Should the President replace Fauci/Birx? At the end of the day the president owns the national response. If Fauci/Birx are providing bad advice then they should be replaced. If you watch 5 or more of Trump’s daily updates you will quickly realize who the problem is. Is that what a world class national response to a global pandemic looks like?

We have discussed this on other BRK threads. Berkshire is being run today for current long term shareholders. Investors who have owned Berkshire for many decades. These investors, like Buffett, have enough; they are worth many millions (10’s an 100’s). Return of capital (over time) is far more important than return on capital. Berkshire will be run very conservatively. It is starting to look and sound like a kind of Trust (for the old, big holders of shares). Beating the S&P 500 is no longer important. If you want safety and a better than bond return then you buy Berkshire.

I agree that lock down is terrible. Economic costs are massive. And there are severe health costs. What this means is you need to get your health response to the virus right. Testing. Contact tracing. Quarantine. The Federal government is failing on the health response to the virus; no leadership or coordination etc. The result of this incompetence is the US economy is likely screwed until a vaccine is developed.

Are people seriously suggesting that the lock down that happened in most advanced countries in the world to deal with the virus was a mistake because millions of people did not die (i.e. the projections were wrong)? Talk about revisionist history. Virus comes to US. No testing. It spreads and community transfer begins. Clusters form in Washington State and New York City. Very limited testing. Virus continues to spread. These 2 regions start seeding virus to all other states in US. Now limited testing. Virus numbers start to explode. ‘Experts’ explain that now that virus is seeded in all parts of the US it will double every 4-5 days. If nothing is done health care system will be overrun and death rate will skyrocket. By now the world has many examples of countries where the virus was allowed to cluster and spread with limited testing being done: Wuhan China, Iran and Northern Italy. The result was a health catastrophe. The only solution was to lock down the regions, and eventually the entire country. Health care systems were completely overwhelmed. Many people were dying because hospitals had no resources to care for them. If lock downs had not happened how many people would have died in Wuhan, Iran or Northern Italy? And the virus would have spread more quickly to the rest of the world. The outbreaks in Washington State and New York City provided frightening examples of what was coming to the US if nothing was done. Testing was still not available. So the US had one choice to avoid a health catastrophe. And that was to lock down the country. The fact that the US did not experience a health catastrophe (like other parts of the world) is due to the lock downs that were put in place. It has taken 4 weeks for the results of the lock downs to become apparent. To now suggest that lock downs were a waste of time is complete and utter BS. Re-read this thread and all the facts are there for those who care to look. When a country mismanages the virus it has one tool to get control back: lock down. ———————————— Here is what is important today: Has the US learned any lessons in the past 2 months? 1.) One big lesson is testing is the key to managing the virus until a vaccine is found. Massive numbers of tests are needed. They need to be prioritized. Results need to be provided within 24 hours. 2.) Contact tracing needs to be done for all people who test positive. An army of people will be needed for this. 3.) Quarantine: people who test positive need to be quarantined and supported as needed through this. Scott Gottleib says the earliest the US will be able to do the above in some capacity is the fall. The President has just stated that the federal government will not be providing leadership on solving the testing issue; it will be left up to the states. No leadership or coordination at the federal level. Not good. What this means is as the US opens back up it will be at high risk of more clusters forming which then re-seed the virus into many parts of the US. This means the risks are high that the US will be needing to do another lock down. If your health response to the virus is wrong you will kill your economy. If you get the health response right you can start to get your economy moving again.

Graham was very candid about his poor performance during the Depression. I recently re-read an article (https://www.capitalideasonline.com/wordpress/benjamin-graham-and-the-great-crash/) where Graham recounts his experiences following the Crash of 1929. The whole thing is worth reading, but in particular, I found one story related by Graham from the Winter of 1930 to be especially compelling: ———————————————- Nomad, thanks for posting the link... great read. Here is another great paragraph. In bear markets the psychological damage is more difficult to deal with than the actual financial loss. “I can sympathize with the desperation of my old friend (who committed suicide), and almost with his tragic end, because to some degree I went through comparable dismay and apprehension for more than three years. It is true that I wasn’t ruined and that at the low­est point I still had means which would have seemed quite large to me only ten years before. But wealth and poverty are relative terms-a poor man in New York would be a rich man in Calcutta, and practically everyone who has lost four-fifths of his wealth considers he has suffered a disaster no matter how much he has left. The chief burden on my mind was not so much the actual shrinkage of my fortune as the lengthy attri­tion, the repeated disappointments after the tide had seemed to turn, the ultimate uncertainty about whether the Depres­sion and the losses would ever come to an end. Add to this the realization that I was responsible for the fortunes of many rel­atives and friends, that they were as apprehensive and dis­traught as I myself, and one may understand better the feel­ing of defeat and near-despair that almost overmastered me towards the end.”

Using unemployment rate to define "worst recession", the worst recession since the great depression is 1980-1982. The S&P 500 lost 27.8%. Your "base rate" on this crisis should be -30 to -50. We already hit -35%, so we are in the range. It is probably 50/50 that we have already bottomed. Every bear market has its own unique characteristics. What makes this one so fascinating is how unique it is (pandemic versus more usual boom time excesses). As a result, we are flying a little more blind than usual and as a result the tails (on both sides) are wider than normal. We could get a vaccine early which would be a game changer. Or we could get wave 2 of the virus in Sept (mutated and this time killing young people). And there are many more possible outcomes on both ends. There is so much we do not know. All i am saying is investors should understand how much they do not know and invest accordingly so they meet their objectives and sleep well at night. May we live in interesting times :-)

Graham’s definition of investing starts with ‘safety of principal...’. Buffet’s first rule of investing is: don’t lose what have. Rule 2 is don’t forget the first rule. Bear markets are all about capital preservation.

Many smart people are saying the current recession will be the worst recession since the Great Depression. If true we are likely just at the end of the beginning in terms of economic and financial pain. The Great Depression wiped Graham out and provided the basis for the the books he wrote afterwards. If this recession delivers on expectations (worst since Great Depression) then my guess is most investors will get cleaned out in the coming years. The best example is oil stocks; as a group, they are hated today (as they have been wealth destroyers for many people for many years). Bear markets savage investors equity portfolios and take years to do so. Buffett was taught by Graham. He is old enough to understand what real wealth destruction truly looks like. Not saying anything WILL happen. But the odds of a terrible economic outcome happening are going up with each passing week (for those who are paying attention). Eyes wide open :-) From Wikipedia: Graham's Beginnings After graduating from Columbia University in 1914, Graham went to work on Wall Street, which enabled him to cultivate a sizable personal nest egg over the next 15 years. Sadly, Graham lost most of his money in the stock market crash of 1929 and the subsequent Great Depression. Those experiences taught Graham lessons about minimizing downside risk by investing in companies whose shares traded far below the companies' liquidation value. In simple terms, his goal was to buy a dollar's worth of assets for $0.50. To do this, he utilized market psychology, turning market fears to his advantage. These ideals inspired him to write "Security Analysis" (published in 1934), which chronicled his methods of analyzing securities.

Tim Duy’s Fed Watch: https://blogs.uoregon.edu/timduyfedwatch/2020/04/16/its-ugly-out-there/ - https://blogs.uoregon.edu/timduyfedwatch/2020/04/16/its-ugly-out-there/ ... Still, on the theme of pragmatism, don’t dismiss the importance of that first pop of activity. It marks a turning point, a place to begin rebuilding the economy. The level won’t be where we want it to be and we will need to maintain pressure for ongoing policy support to foster the economy, but the economy will be moving in the right direction. Don’t become too enamored with either the pessimists or the optimists; the reality will fall somewhere in-between. Bottom Line: Controlling Covid-19 requires drastically constricting economic activity; the proof that the plan is working is that the data collapses and we bend the infection curve. The former has definitely happened and it looks like the latter will as well – social distancing works. We still have a long way to go until we return to some semblance of normality, but expect people to begin working in that direction when the restrictions on activity ease. Most important now is to keep the pressure up on Congress to provide sustained support for the economy; that support should be open-ended, based on economic conditions not time or dollars.

And now we begin to see what the nationally coordinated plan is for the US for phase 2. After all this is a war (according to the President). The US is at the beginning of what is expected to be the worst recession since the Great Depression. This is a chance for Trump to show what he is made of and that he is up to the challenge. As testing outcry mounts, Trump cedes to states in announcing guidelines for slow reopening - https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/as-testing-outcry-mounts-trump-cedes-to-states-in-announcing-guidelines-for-slow-reopening/2020/04/16/202ec300-7ffa-11ea-8013-1b6da0e4a2b7_story.html Trump’s the-buck-stops-with-the-states posture is largely designed to shield himself from blame should there be new outbreaks after states reopen or for other problems, according to several current and former senior administration officials involved in the response who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations. Governors have said one of the most important factors in making those determinations is testing data, but Trump’s plan does not contain a national testing strategy. Senior administration officials said that although the federal government will try to facilitate access to tests, states and localities will be responsible for developing and administering their own testing programs.

I think that this is an extremely good point that has gotten lost over the past month or two. The goal is to avoid overwhelming the healthcare system, not to eliminate every potential death from the virus by remaining shut for a year. (Based on Canadian polling, it's pretty clear that Canadians in aggregate don't get it.) On the "how to reopen" list, it shocks me that they aren't bothering to require masks, since it seems to be a cheap and easy solution to reduce transmission (and deaths and medical costs). I wonder if there was some reasoning behind that, or if they were just writing down stuff on autopilot, and not really thinking. If they decided not to include it for cultural reasons, that puts the US at a competitive disadvantage relative to other countries that are more open-minded about such things. When you ‘mismanage’ the virus outbreak you have to resort to lock down. (And by mismanage i mean not being able to control the virus.) We all know that lock down exacts an enormous toll on the economy. While in lock downs governments have a small window of time to pull together experts and implement a very detailed national strategic plan to combat the virus. This involves switching from playing defense to playing offense. The playbook is pretty straight forward: massive focussed and prioritized testing, quick results (within 24 hours), massive group of people to contact trace. How effective governments are with this stage will determine how quickly they can unlock the economy. And also, more importantly, how long the economy will remain unlocked. If you have no detailed national plan for phase 2 (reopening of the economy) you are likely screwed. As you try an reopen the economy all that will happen is the virus will win again. It will start to silently spread. Clusters will form and governments will need to resort to lock down again. We will find in the coming months which governments are up to the challenge. This is NOT a debate about ‘health’ OR ‘economy’. This is a debate about leaders who are effective and leaders who are ineffective.

Timely interview. I find Dalio hard to follow at times and this interview is long at 45 minutes :-) i especially liked his discussion of how he is looking at investing today (about 27:30 minute mark if you are pressed for time). My notes below were put together quickly; hopefully they are generally accurate. - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2020-04-15/ray-dalio-on-the-economic-impact-of-the-coronavirus-crisis-video Big buckets: - goods and services - will see deflation - asset prices: inflation (driven by central bank actions) - currency - devaluations Next 12 months world GDP will contract 4-5% Recession will be bigger than 2008; most comparable to 1930-1945. We will adapt. When central banks open the spigots, historically this usually indicates the bottom is in for stocks 2008 the issue was banks. Issues today go way beyond banks; who do you want to save? Where we go from here? - helps to look at it in two ways: countries and asset types - people will be looking for storehold of wealth - bonds are the clear losers today. Who would hold an instrument that pays zero or even negative interest rate? Currency risk. - some stocks will win: strong balance sheet and stable income - globally, there will also be winners and losers. Countries without a ’Fed’ will be losers (EM?) - other things to watch: civil behavior (income inequality)? Changes in tax rates? Severely different world moving forward: 1.) countries will be more self sufficient: health care; supply chain 2.) climate change When will Bridgewater get back to old normal? - current situation (working from home) is not a big deal; was contemplated and prepared for many years - will be very conservative with plan to return; this is a health issue - virus - history has shown these viruses come in waves - humans adapt

At the very end he says: “This is not short term... the effects.” Everyone better hope he is wrong. Another tidbit: Expedia spends about $5 billion a year on advertising... this will be less than $1 billion moving forward. Lots of other industries (not just travel) will be the same.

Have either of you heard a plausible explanations for the increase in insurance rates? That sort of jump seems very strange to me. Like, were these things priced to make a huge loss five years ago, or are the new high prices just to make a massive profit? I would've guessed that the insurance markets are close enough to efficient that a 100-300% increase in premiums without an extreme event would never happen. But I'm clearly wrong, so what's the deal here? From the article: What is the cause of the dramatic increases? In addition to worldwide catastrophes, we live in a high‐ risk earthquake zone, and with several major building claims in the province, there are a reduced number of insurance companies who are covering strata insurance in BC. The hardest hit regions are the high‐density metro areas, but resort properties and communities with large developments of more than 250 units are also feeling the crunch as they have the highest compound risks when there is a claim. In addition, with a limited number of insurers, increase in claims, higher property and construction values and a high demand for insurance, a supply/demand imbalance has been created where the insurers have imposed much higher costs and deductibles to manage risks.

Yes, the increases in insurance rates and deductables are are crazy. The increases are large enough they will certainly affect resale values at some point down the road. How do strata corporations and owners manage the dramatic increase in Insurance Rates? - https://www.choa.bc.ca/wp-content/uploads/300-869-05122019-How-do-Strata-Corporations-and-Owners-Manage-the-Dramatic-Increase-in-Insurance-Rates.pdf Over the past few months across BC, there has been an industry struggle to renew strata corporation insurance polices. With renewals, the cost of the insurance has increased anywhere from 50‐300% and the deductibles to cover claims have also increased substantially, from manageable rates of $25,000 per claim to as high as $250,000 and $500,000. While not all regions of the province have been affected in the same manner, there have been targeted building types or large strata communities across BC that have seen the dramatic increase.

Where is Garth Turner? I think his prediction of a real estate meltdown in Canada just might come true in the next year or two. Canada is facing a potential three headed horseman: coronavirus, oil meltdown and housing bubble popping. Our housing bubble today is more bubbly than the US in 2007; the main difference being it is much harder in Canada to walk away from a mortgage. Government spending the past few years has been increasing rapidly (resulting in growing deficits) and taxes have been increasing. Regulation has been increasing. Traditional sectors of growth (resources) is no longer a priority for government; quite the opposite in fact (most parts of Canada hate resources as they polute the earth, are evil and are the work of the devil). Canada’s level of competitiveness might be at an all time low versus the US. Any ideas of a way to hedge the potential for a housing crash in Canada? (Selling my house is not an option :-) No credit default swaps to purchase. Short Canadian Banks? They are so protected by the government this might not pay out as expected. Is there a way to short property developers? One strategy i am using is to be quite cautious with my financial portfolio (mostly cash). A second is to hold US$: 65% of my financial portfolio is in US$. My guess is if Canada has a real estate crisis the Canadian $ will go much lower (and $0.71 is already low). Once Safer Than Gold, Canadian Real Estate Braces for Reckoning - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-15/once-safer-than-gold-canadian-real-estate-meets-its-match Canadian housing once seemed so infallible that the head of the world’s biggest asset manager in 2015 described Vancouver condos as a better store of wealth than gold. The coronavirus is putting that theory to the test. While lockdowns, job losses and uncertainty are roiling property markets from the U.K. to Australia to Hong Kong, Canada’s situation is more precarious than most. As its oil sector shriveled in recent years, Canada’s economy became ever more driven by real estate, an industry now in a state of paralysis. Nearly one in three workers have applied for income support. What’s more, its households are among the world’s most indebted, poorly placed to weather the storm. ...The country may not have much of a choice but to prop up housing. Real estate has become Canada’s largest sector. Including residential construction, it accounted for 15% of economic output last year; energy accounted for 9%. ...Recessions tend to be deeper and last longer when households are mired in debt -- an alarming prospect for a nation that may already be experiencing its sharpest contraction on record. Canadians owe C$2.3 trillion in mortgages, credit card, and other consumer debt, about equal to the country’s GDP, which is an even higher ratio than the U.S. had before its housing bust. “You have all of these flammable items that just need a spark, some external shock,” says Anthony Scilipoti, president of Toronto-based Veritas Investment Research Corp. “And this virus is a worst-case scenario none of us would have predicted.”

More dominoes will start to fall with each passing week. Lots of weak companies, like JC Penney, will declare bankruptcy. They all have a great reason: coronavirus. Management is not to blame :-) J.C. Penney Might File for Bankruptcy. What That Says About Macy’s and Other Retailers. - https://www.barrons.com/articles/jc-penney-stock-bankruptcy-department-store-retailers-covid-19-e-commerce-51586970318?mod=hp_DAY_1 After years of dwindling foot traffic and sales, J.C. Penney is reportedly considering a bankruptcy filing among its options to deal with the coronavirus shutdown. It is also considering pursuing an out-of-court debt restructuring or rescue financing, according to Reuters. The department store doesn’t necessarily need to take action soon; the company has enough cash to cover its $105 million bond maturing in June, ratings firms say. Fitch Ratings said earlier this month that J.C. Penney  (ticker: JCP) should have enough liquidity to get through the 2020 holiday season, and the analysts don’t expect a debt restructuring until next year. Across the industry, however, coronavirus-related shutdowns and widespread store closures have piled extra financial stress on top of the existing pressure of changing shopper tastes and the rise of e-commerce. March brought the steepest monthly decline in retail sales on record, with a nearly 9% slide from the month before, according to the Census Bureau. That means J.C. Penney certainly isn’t the only retailer feeling the pinch. Fitch Ratings downgraded at least eight retailers earlier this month because of the coronavirus shutdown. Among them were Macy’s (M), Dillard’s (DDS), Capri Holdings (CPRI) and Tapestry (TPR), all of which the firm downgraded to junk from investment grade.

So much we do not understand. There are enough stories like the one you posted for a rational person to not want to get the virus. If we find that there are long lasting health problems in many people who get the virus then the debate around re-opening the economy becomes quite different.

So how will the world look once we are ready to relax lock down? Bursting the Bubble: Why Sports Aren't Coming Back Soon https://www.si.com/mlb/2020/04/10/sports-arent-coming-back-soon ...Most of these ideas are essentially the same: The players live in quarantine, shuttling from the hotel to the stadium, for the duration of the season. They undergo daily COVID-19 tests. They bring joy to a terrified country. That seems reasonable on the surface. But look closer. First, let’s do away with the suggestion, put forth by President Donald Trump, that football season could go on as normal, beginning on time in September and unfolding in front of crowded stadiums. "We will not have sporting events with fans until we have a vaccine," says Zach Binney, a PhD in epidemiology who wrote his dissertation on injuries in the NFL and now teaches at Emory. Barring a medical miracle, the process of developing and widely distributing a vaccine is likely to take 12 to 18 months. ...The leagues know how farfetched their ideas are. So do the players’ unions. They continue to explore options because they would be remiss not to. But fans should understand how unlikely this all is. No one wants to acknowledge how far we are from ordinary life, says Kimberley Miner, a professor at the University of Maine who develops risk assessment for the U.S. Army. “It’s hard to stomach a lot of this information, so it’s not being widely shared,” she explains. ...But the reality is that even after we pass the initial peak of infection, the virus is still active. We have already lost more than 16,000 Americans to this disease. Bringing back sports soon would give people a reason to stay inside, a reason to feel hopeful. It would probably also cost more lives. “If people just decide to let it burn in most areas and we do lose a couple million people it’d probably be over by the fall,” says Binney. “You’d have football. You’d also have two million dead people. And let’s talk about that number. We’re really bad at dealing with big numbers. That is a Super Bowl blown up by terrorists, killing every single person in the building, 24 times in six months. It’s 9/11 every day for 18 months. What freedoms have we given up, what wars have we fought, what blood have we shed, what money have we spent in the interest of stopping one more 9/11? This is 9/11 every day for 18 months.”

Workers in tourism/hospitality industries will be especially hard hit. 43,000 workers moving to unemployment benefits. Hard to envision how a resort like this functions as restrictions are relaxed down the road (with social distancing measures likely remaining in place). And at what capacity. Disney World to furlough 43,000 employees - https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/04/12/coronavirus-latest-news/#link-EMNBMEV3LZGJPAT3HTIXCSFKOU Walt Disney Parks and Resorts has become the latest company to temporarily lay off portions of its immense employee base. The Service Trades Council Union announced on Saturday that approximately 43,000 nonessential employees at Disney World, the iconic Florida theme park, will be furloughed without pay beginning April 19. Full-time furloughed workers will be eligible to sign up for unemployment benefits and retain group insurance benefits for 12 months. However, with uncertainty surrounding how long the theme park will remain closed due to covid-19, workers will go without regular paychecks until further notice.